Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This study assesses the delay of mastectomy "time from the first consultation of a doctor to the time of mastectomy" and its relationship with the stage of the disease among Iraqi women with breast cancer. A study was carried out on (113) women who were referred to the Outpatient Clinic of the Oncology Teaching Hospital and the Iraqi National Cancer Research Center, University of Baghdad, for the period from 2012 to 2016.Patients' age range between (40-49) years comprised (60.2%) of cases, and showed advanced tumor stage (62.96%)of stage III. It was found that infiltrating ductal carcinoma was the most common type of breast cancer that found in (77%) of cases.
Mostly there was no delay of mastectomy for more than one month delay
... Show MoreIn order to select the optimal tracking of fast time variation of multipath fast time variation Rayleigh fading channel, this paper focuses on the recursive least-squares (RLS) and Extended recursive least-squares (E-RLS) algorithms and reaches the conclusion that E-RLS is more feasible according to the comparison output of the simulation program from tracking performance and mean square error over five fast time variation of Rayleigh fading channels and more than one time (send/receive) reach to 100 times to make sure from efficiency of these algorithms.
In this research, an experimental study was conducted to high light the impact of the exterior shape of a cylindrical body on the forced and free convection heat transfer coefficients when the body is hold in the entrance of an air duct. The impact of changing the body location within the air duct and the air speed are also demonstrated. The cylinders were manufactured with circular, triangular and square sections of copper for its high thermal conductivity with appropriate dimensions, while maintaining the surface area of all shapes to be the same. Each cylinder was heated to a certain temperature and put inside the duct at certain locations. The temperature of the cylinder was then monitored. The heat transfer coefficient were then cal
... Show MoreCoagulation is the most important process in drinking water treatment. Alum coagulant increases the aluminum residuals, which have been linked in many studies to Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, it is very important to use it with the very optimal dose. In this paper, four sets of experiments were done to determine the relationship between raw water characteristics: turbidity, pH, alkalinity, temperature, and optimum doses of alum [ .14 O] to form a mathematical equation that could replace the need for jar test experiments. The experiments were performed under different conditions and under different seasonal circumstances. The optimal dose in every set was determined, and used to build a gene expression model (GEP). The models were co
... Show MoreIn this study, simply supported reinforced concrete (RC) beams were analyzed using the Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM). This is a powerful method that is used for the treatment of discontinuities resulting from the fracture process and crack propagation in concrete. The mesoscale is used in modeling concrete as a two-phasic material of coarse aggregate and cement mortar. Air voids in the cement paste will also be modeled. The coarse aggregate used in the casting of these beams is a rounded aggregate consisting of different maximum sizes. The maximum size is 25 mm in the first model, and in the second model, the maximum size is 20 mm. The compressive strength used in these beams is equal to 26 MPa.
The subje
... Show MoreGlobalization has occupied a great deal of studies, research and literature, in addition to being a phenomenon that has imposed itself firmly on the ground. Globalization is considered the main feature of the current moment in today's world. The world is now transforming in an unprecedented way under noticeable titles of successive waves of knowledge and technology.The current research aims to identify the effects of globalization on the variables and their political, social, media and cultural dimensions, as well as culture of consumption and cultural identity.The theoretical framework included two sections: the first is the concept of globalization, its history and its dimensions, and the second is the modernity in contemporary Europea
... Show MoreThis study was conducted in College of Science \ Computer Science Department \ University of Baghdad to compare between automatic sorting and manual sorting, which is more efficient and accurate, as well as the use of artificial intelligence in automated sorting, which included artificial neural network, image processing, study of external characteristics, defects and impurities and physical characteristics; grading and sorting speed, and fruits weigh. the results shown value of impurities and defects. the highest value of the regression is 0.40 and the error-approximation algorithm has recorded the value 06-1 and weight fruits fruit recorded the highest value and was 138.20 g, Gradin
In this paper a prey-predator-scavenger food web model is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the model considered the effect of harvesting and all the species are infected by some toxicants released by some other species. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is discussed. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The occurrence of local bifurcation around the equilibrium points is investigated. Numerical simulation is used and the obtained solution curves are drawn to illustrate the results of the model. Finally, the nonexistence of periodic dynamics is discussed analytically as well as numerically.
The present study investigates the relation between the biliteral and triliteral roots which is the introduction to comprehend the nature of the Semitic roots during its early stage of development being unconfirmed to a single pattern. The present research is not meant to decide on the question of the biliteral roots in the Semitic languages, rather it is meant to confirm the predominance of the triliteral roots on these languages which refers, partially, to analogy adopted by the majority of linguists. This tendency is frequently seen in the languages which incline to over generalize the triliteral phenomenon, i. e., to transfer the biliteral roots to the triliteral room, that is, to subject it to the predominant pattern regarding the r
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