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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Monthly Carbone Monoxide (CO) Distribution Based on the 2010 MOPITT Satellite Data in Iraq
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Carbon monoxide (CO) plays an important indirect greenhouse gases due to its influences on the budgets of hydroxyl radicals (OH) and Ozone (O3). The atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) observations can only be made on global and continental scales by remote sensing instruments situated in space. One of instrument is the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), which is designed to measure troposphere CO and CH4 by use of a nadir-viewing geometry and was launched aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft on 18 December 1999. Results from the analysis of the retrieved monthly (1ºх1º) spatial grid resolution, from the MOPITT data were utilized to analyze the distribution of CO surface mixing ratio in Iraq for th

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Developing an Immune Negative Selection Algorithm for Intrusion Detection in NSL-KDD data Set
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With the development of communication technologies for mobile devices and electronic communications, and went to the world of e-government, e-commerce and e-banking. It became necessary to control these activities from exposure to intrusion or misuse and to provide protection to them, so it's important to design powerful and efficient systems-do-this-purpose. It this paper it has been used several varieties of algorithm selection passive immune algorithm selection passive with real values, algorithm selection with passive detectors with a radius fixed, algorithm selection with passive detectors, variable- sized intrusion detection network type misuse where the algorithm generates a set of detectors to distinguish the self-samples. Practica

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دور تنقيب البيانات Data Mining في زيادة أداء المنظمة (( دراسة تحليلية في المصرف الصناعي ))
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تمهيد

غالبا ما يكون تعامل المنظمات المالية والمصرفية مع الزبائن بشكل أساسي مما يتطلب منها جمع كميات هائلة من البيانات عن هؤلاء الزبائن هذا بالإضافة الى ما يرد اليها يوميا من بيانات يجعلها أمام أكداس كبيرة من البيانات تحتاج الى جهود جبارة تحسن التعامل معها والاستفادة منها بما يخدم المنظمة.

ان التعامل اليدوي مع مثل هذه البيانات دون استخدام تقنيات حديثة يبعد المنظمة عن التط

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 25 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology
RIETVELD TEXTURE REFINEMENT ANALYSIS OF LINDE TYPE A ZEOLITE FROM X-RAY DIFFRACTION DATA
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
An Economic Study of a Wind Energy Project Using Different Sources of Wind Data
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     In this study, a preliminary economic feasibility study of the project of wind power at the site of Al-Shehabi (Wasit-Iraq) was conducted using measured wind data at altitudes of 10, 30, 50 and 52 m per 10 minutes. For the purpose of comparison, data from NASA were used at the same location at 50 m height. The lowest unit cost of electricity from wind energy was found to be 0.028 $/Kwh and 0.0399 $/Kwh by using the standard methodologies of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) equation and Net Present Value (NPV) procedure, respectively. Furthermore, RETScreen software was used to perform the economic prefeasibility study of a proposed wind farm. The study concludes that this site is economically feasible if a wind fa

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 23 2020
Journal Name
Artificial Intelligence Research
Hybrid approaches to feature subset selection for data classification in high-dimensional feature space
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This paper proposes two hybrid feature subset selection approaches based on the combination (union or intersection) of both supervised and unsupervised filter approaches before using a wrapper, aiming to obtain low-dimensional features with high accuracy and interpretability and low time consumption. Experiments with the proposed hybrid approaches have been conducted on seven high-dimensional feature datasets. The classifiers adopted are support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and K-nearest neighbour (KNN). Experimental results have demonstrated the advantages and usefulness of the proposed methods in feature subset selection in high-dimensional space in terms of the number of selected features and time spe

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hazard Rate Estimation Using Varying Kernel Function for Censored Data Type I Article Sidebar
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n this research, several estimators concerning the estimation are introduced. These estimators are closely related to the hazard function by using one of the nonparametric methods namely the kernel function for censored data type with varying bandwidth and kernel boundary. Two types of bandwidth are used: local bandwidth and global bandwidth. Moreover, four types of boundary kernel are used namely: Rectangle, Epanechnikov, Biquadratic and Triquadratic and the proposed function was employed with all kernel functions. Two different simulation techniques are also used for two experiments to compare these estimators. In most of the cases, the results have proved that the local bandwidth is the best for all the types of the kernel boundary func

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Subsurface Structural Image of Galabat Field, North East of Iraq Using 2D Seismic Data
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This research had been achieved to identify the image of the subsurface structure representing the Tertiary period in the Galabat Field northeast of Iraq using 2D seismic survey measurements. Synthetic seismograms of the Galabat-3 well were generated in order to identify and pick the reflectors in seismic sections. Structural Images were drawn in the time domain and then converted to the depth domain by using average velocities. Structurally, seismic sections illustrate these reflectors are affected by two reverse faults affected on the Jeribe Formation and the layers below with the increase in the density of the reverse faults in the northern division. The structural maps show Galabat field, which consists of longitudinal Asymmetrical narr

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Use of information and communications technology to archive data: A suggested form in the Tax Audit and Examination Department of the General Tax Authority
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The current world is observing huge developments in presenting the opportunity for organizations and administrative units to use information and communication technology and their adoption by administrative work due to its importance in the achievement of work with higher efficiency, speed, and facility of communication with all individuals and companies using various means of communication Depending on the Internet networks. Therefore, the research dealt with the study of electronic systems designed and adopted in the creation or construction of a database for archiving data, which is the main method in organizations and administrative units in developed countries. Where this system works to convert documents, and manual processes and t

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Monitoring Pollution and the Trend of Air Quality in Brick Factories in the Nahrawan Region and its Impact on Baghdad, Using Remote Sensing Data
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One of the most significant environmental issues facing the planet today is air pollution. Due to development in industry and population density, air pollution has lately gotten worse. Like many developing nations, Iraq suffers from air pollution, particularly in its urban areas with heavy industry. Our research was carried out in Baghdad's Al-Nahrawan neighbourhood. Recently, ground surveys and remote sensing were used to study the monitoring of air pollution. In order to extract different gaseous and particle data, Earth Data source, Google Earth Engine (GEE), and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software were all employed. The findings demonstrated that there is a significant positive connection between data collected by ground-ba

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