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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The suggested threshold to reduce data noise for a factorial experiment
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In this research, a factorial experiment (4*4) was studied, applied in a completely random block design, with a size of observations, where the design of experiments is used to study the effect of transactions on experimental units and thus obtain data representing experiment observations that The difference in the application of these transactions under different environmental and experimental conditions It causes noise that affects the observation value and thus an increase in the mean square error of the experiment, and to reduce this noise, multiple wavelet reduction was used as a filter for the observations by suggesting an improved threshold that takes into account the different transformation levels based on the logarithm of the b

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Publication Date
Tue May 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Review of Assured Data Deletion Security Techniques in Cloud Storage
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      Cloud computing is an interesting technology that allows customers to have convenient, on-demand network connectivity based on their needs with minimal maintenance and contact between cloud providers. The issue of security has arisen as a serious concern, particularly in the case of cloud computing, where data is stored and accessible via the Internet from a third-party storage system. It is critical to ensure that data is only accessible to the appropriate individuals and that it is not stored in third-party locations. Because third-party services frequently make backup copies of uploaded data for security reasons, removing the data the owner submits does not guarantee the removal of the data from the cloud. Cloud data storag

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Educational Data Mining For Predicting Academic Student Performance Using Active Classification
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     The increasing amount of educational data has rapidly in the latest few years. The Educational Data Mining (EDM) techniques are utilized to detect the valuable pattern so that improves the educational process and to obtain high performance of all educational elements. The proposed work contains three stages: preprocessing, features selection, and an active classification stage. The dataset was collected using EDM that had a lack in the label data, it contained 2050 records collected by using questionnaires and by using the students’ academic records. There are twenty-five features that were combined from the following five factors: (curriculum, teacher, student, the environment of education, and the family). Active learning ha

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2023
Journal Name
Ieee Access
ITor-SDN: Intelligent Tor Networks-Based SDN for Data Forwarding Management
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Tor (The Onion Routing) network was designed to enable users to browse the Internet anonymously. It is known for its anonymity and privacy security feature against many agents who desire to observe the area of users or chase users’ browsing conventions. This anonymity stems from the encryption and decryption of Tor traffic. That is, the client’s traffic should be subject to encryption and decryption before the sending and receiving process, which leads to delay and even interruption in data flow. The exchange of cryptographic keys between network devices plays a pivotal and critical role in facilitating secure communication and ensuring the integrity of cryptographic procedures. This essential process is time-consuming, which causes del

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Biomedical Signal Processing And Control
Decoding transient sEMG data for intent motion recognition in transhumeral amputees
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 09 2023
Journal Name
2023 Ieee 34th International Symposium On Software Reliability Engineering Workshops (issrew)
Semantics-Based, Automated Preparation of Exploratory Data Analysis for Complex Systems
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2001
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
The Effect of MFI of High-Density Polyethylene on the Mathematical Modeling of Tensile Characteristic
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Architecture And Planning
Geospatial Techniques for Preparing the Requirements of 3D Modeling for Smart City Planning- Review paper
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Developing smart city planning requires integrating various techniques, including geospatial techniques, building information models (BIM), information and communication technology (ICT), and artificial intelligence, for instance, three-dimensional (3D) building models, in enabling smart city applications. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the role and significance of geospatial techniques in smart city planning and implementation. The literature review encompasses (74) studies from diverse databases, examining relevant solutions and prototypes related to smart city planning. The focus highlights the requirements and preparation of geospatial techniques to support the transition to a smart city. The paper explores various aspects,

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Paripex-indian Journal Of Research
Inundation Map Development by Using HEC-RAS Hydraulic Simulation Modeling from Roseires to Khartoum Cities
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Inundation floodingmap aimedto find outearly warningsto avoidenvironmental damageandhumanin terms of theheight ofthe wave ofwater, speed time arrival, effects of inundation sideanddepth of the water/ distanceand reduce the impact of the flood wave after obtaining the process of collapse of the dam in the lower part of the river to the dam area. The study has been using a numerical model one-dimensional depends on the development of equations (Saint-Venant) so that parts of the river, any river channel main banks of the right and left treated as separate parts, that’s the difference in the characteristics of the hydraulic and engineering, along the line of the flow will take into account in each section of the sections and flow in the riv

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Sust Journal Of Engineering And Computer Science (jecs)
Virtual failure influence of Roseires dam on Khartoum city using HEC-RAS Hydraulic simulation modeling
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Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated usi

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