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A mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic involving the infective immigrants

‎  Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19    pandemic  ‎has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a ‎major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and ‎‎12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs ‎and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in ‎the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important ‎factors that helped the rapid spread of the epidemic are immigration, travelers, foreign workers, and foreign students. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamical ‎behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, involving immigrants' effects with the possibility of re-infection. ‎Firstly, we studied the positivity and roundedness of the solution of the proposed model. The stability ‎results of the model at the disease-free equilibrium point were presented when . Further, it was proven that the pandemic equilibrium point will persist uniformly when . Moreover, we ‎confirmed the occurrence of the local bifurcation (saddle-node, pitchfork, and transcritical). Finally, ‎theoretical analysis and numerical results were shown to be consistent.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Data in Iraq

The analysis of COVID-19 data in Iraq is carried out. Data includes daily cases and deaths since the outbreak of the pandemic in Iraq on February 2020 until the 28th of June 2022. This is done by fitting some distributions to the data in order to find out the most appropriate distribution fit to both daily cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The statistical analysis includes estimation of the parameters, the goodness of fit tests and illustrative probability plots. It was found that the generalized extreme value and the generalized Pareto distributions may provide a good fit for the data for both daily cases and deaths. However, they were rejected by the goodness of fit test statistics due to the high variability of the data.<

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Matrix Metalloproteinase-3 and Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 as Diagnostic Markers for COVID-19 Infection

      Coronavirus 2 is the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which leads to severe acute respiratory illness. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have been linked to leukocyte infiltration and chemokine activation during inflammatory responses. Tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinase (TIMP) family are thought to dampen the proinflammatory effects of these MMPs. The molecular pathways of lung fibrosis are mediated by MMPs and TIMPs. In this study, we sought to investigate the probable link between MMPs, specifically MMP-3, TIMP-2, and COVID-19. The study included 58 COVID-19 patients and 30 apparently healthy individuals matched in terms of age and sex. Multiplex real- time PCR was used to detect the ORF1ab, E, and N genes of

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Predicting COVID-19 in Iraq using Frequent Weighting for Polynomial Regression in Optimization Curve Fitting

     The worldwide pandemic Coronavirus (Covid-19) is a new viral disease that spreads mostly through nasal discharge and saliva from the lips while coughing or sneezing. This highly infectious disease spreads quickly and can overwhelm healthcare systems if not controlled. However, the employment of machine learning algorithms to monitor analytical data has a substantial influence on the speed of decision-making in some government entities.        ML algorithms trained on labeled patients’ symptoms cannot discriminate between diverse types of diseases such as COVID-19. Cough, fever, headache, sore throat, and shortness of breath were common symptoms of many bacterial and viral diseases.

This research focused on the nu

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Studying the Effect of COVID-19 on Liver Enzymes and Lipid Profile in Iraqi Recovering Patients

  The Covid-19 virus disease has been shown to affect numerous organs and systems including the liver. The study aimed to compare lipid profiles and liver enzyme levels in individuals who had recovered from Covid-19 infection. To achieve the study objectives, liver Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT), Alkaline phosphatase (ALP),  Random Blood Sugar (RBS) and Lipid profile which include cholesterol, High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL), Triglycerides (T.G), Low-Density Lipoprotein (LDL), and Very low-density Lipoprotein (VLDL) were determined.

One hundred twenty serum samples were obtained, of which fifty samples were utilized as the control healthy persons (not affected by COVID) and seventy samples came f

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Clinical Analysis of Four Maternity Deaths in Iraq by COVID-19

 

This study aims to identify maternal death cases caused by Coronavirus infection 2019 pneumonia, including disease progression, fetal consequences, and the fatality cause.

Patients and methodology: A retrospective case collection of Iraqi pregnant women in their second and third trimesters diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia and died due to it.

The four cases were all of a young age, had a brief complaint period, and had no comorbidities. Fever, dyspnea, and fatigue were the most common symptoms. Hypoxia was present in all cases and was the cause of mortality in three cases, with thromboembolism being a potential cause in the fourth. Prelabour membrane breakup, fetal growth restriction, and fetal death are al

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Speech Acts Analysis of English COVID-19 News Headlines: مثنى نجيب المرسومي, جمعة قادر حسين

News headlines are key elements in spreading news. They are unique texts written in a special language which enables readers understand the overall nature and importance of the topic. However, this special language causes difficulty for readers in understanding the headline. To illuminate this difficulty, it is argued that a pragmatic analysis from a speech act theory perspective is a plausible tool for a headline analysis. The main objective of the study is to pragmatically analyze the most frequently employed types of speech acts in the news headlines covering COVID-19 in Aljazeera English website. To this end, Bach and Harnish's (1979) Taxonomy of Speech Acts has been adopted to analyze the data. Thirty headlines have been collected f

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Degree of Implementation of the Coronavirus Prevention Standards (Covid-19) In the Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia (A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN FAMILIES OF PEOPLE WITH INTELLECTUAL DISABILITIES AND FAMILIES OF ORDINARY PEOPLE)

The study aims to identify the degree of implementation of the coronavirus prevention standards (covid-19) in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and compare it with the families of intellectual disabilities. The study population consisted of all families residing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve the objectives of the research, the analytical descriptive approach was employed. The study sample consisted of (372) families, among them (84) families with intellectual disabilities, and (288) families without intellectual disabilities. They were chosen from the Saudi community according to what is available for collection in a simple random way, using the standard criteria for the prevention of coronavirus (Covid- 19) Prepared by the resear

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 09 2022
Journal Name
American Journal Of Orthopsychiatry
Intersected Discrimination Through the Lens of COVID-19: The Case Example of Christian Minority in Iraq

Compelling evidence proved that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disproportionately affects minorities. The goal of the present study was to explore the effects of intersected discrimination and discrimination types on COVID-19, mental health, and cognition. A sample of 542 Iraqis, 55.7% females, age ranged from 18 to 73, with (M = 31.16, SD = 9.77). 48.7% were Muslims, and 51.3% were Christians (N = 278). We used measures for COVID-19 stressors, executive functions, intersected discrimination (gender discrimination, social groups-based discrimination, sexual orientation discrimination, and genocidal discrimination), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, status and death, existential anxieties, and health. We conducted in

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 13 2016
Journal Name
University Of Baghdad
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 12 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn: 1683 - 3597 , E-issn : 2521 - 3512)
A Pharmacoeconomics Study for Anticoagulants used for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf city –Iraq(Conference Paper )#

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus 2 (SARS?CoV?2) pandemic is a pulmonary disease, which leads to cardiac, hematologic, and renal complications. Anticoagulants are used for COVID-19 infected patients because the infection increases the risk of thrombosis. The world health organization (WHO), recommend prophylaxis dose of anticoagulants: (Enoxaparin or unfractionated Heparin for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 disease. This has created an urgent need to identify effective medications for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. The value of COVID-19 treatments is affected by cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to inform relative value and how to best maximize social welfare through evidence-based pricing decisions. O

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