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A mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic involving the infective immigrants

‎  Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19    pandemic  ‎has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a ‎major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and ‎‎12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs ‎and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in ‎the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important ‎factors that helped the rapid spread of the epidemic are immigration, travelers, foreign workers, and foreign students. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamical ‎behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, involving immigrants' effects with the possibility of re-infection. ‎Firstly, we studied the positivity and roundedness of the solution of the proposed model. The stability ‎results of the model at the disease-free equilibrium point were presented when . Further, it was proven that the pandemic equilibrium point will persist uniformly when . Moreover, we ‎confirmed the occurrence of the local bifurcation (saddle-node, pitchfork, and transcritical). Finally, ‎theoretical analysis and numerical results were shown to be consistent.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 12 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
A Brief view on the pediatric COVID- 19 pandemic

The world is currently challenging the serious effects of the pandemic of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Data on pediatric COVID are rare and scattered in the literature. In this article, we presented the updated knowledge on the pediatric COVID-19 from different aspects. We hope it will increase the awareness of the pediatricians and health care professionals on this pandemic.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Stability Analysis with Bifurcation of an SVIR Epidemic Model Involving Immigrants

There are many factors effect on the spread of infectious disease or control it,
some of these factors are (immigration and vaccination). The main objective of this
paper is to study the effect of those factors on the dynamical behavior of an SVIR
model. It is assumed that the disease is spread by contact between members of
populations individuals. While the recovered individuals gain permanent immunity
against the disease. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of
this model are investigated. The local and global dynamical behaviors of the model
are studied. The local bifurcations and Hopf bifurcation of the model are
investigated. Finally, in order to confirm our obtained results and specify t

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A New Model Design for Combating COVID -19 Pandemic Based on SVM and CNN Approaches

       In the current worldwide health crisis produced by coronavirus disease (COVID-19), researchers and medical specialists began looking for new ways to tackle the epidemic. According to recent studies, Machine Learning (ML) has been effectively deployed in the health sector. Medical imaging sources (radiography and computed tomography) have aided in the development of artificial intelligence(AI) strategies to tackle the coronavirus outbreak. As a result, a classical machine learning approach for coronavirus detection from      Computerized Tomography (CT) images was developed. In this study, the convolutional neural network (CNN) model for feature extraction and support vector machine (SVM) for the classification of axial

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Solving Nonlinear COVID-19 Mathematical Model Using a Reliable Numerical Method

This research aims to numerically solve a nonlinear initial value problem presented as a system of ordinary differential equations. Our focus is on epidemiological systems in particular. The accurate numerical method that is the Runge-Kutta method of order four has been used to solve this problem that is represented in the epidemic model. The COVID-19 mathematical epidemic model in Iraq from 2020 to the next years is the application under study. Finally, the results obtained for the COVID-19 model have been discussed tabular and graphically. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic can be observed via the behavior of the different stages of the model that approximates the behavior of actual the COVID-19 epidemic in Iraq. In our study, the COV

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Iraqi Journalistic Treatment of COVID-19 pandemic

This research aims to investigate the approaches adopted by Iraqi newspapers in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Employing a descriptive methodology and survey technique, the study conducts content analysis on articles published in three prominent newspapers: Al-Sabah, Al-Mada, and Tareeq Al-Shaab. A multi-stage sampling method was employed, encompassing 260 issues of the aforementioned newspapers. Data collection involved the use of a content analysis questionnaire, with the "How it was said?" method utilized to determine analysis categories.
The results showed that Al-Sabah newspaper adopted a positive approach in addressing COVID-19-related topics, while Al-Mada newspaper remained neutral, and Tare

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Spatio-Temporal Mixture Model for Identifying Risk Levels of COVID-19 Pandemic in Iraq

     This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components o

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model

The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the

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Publication Date
Wed May 08 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Mathematics And Computer Science
How does media coverage affect a COVID-19 pandemic model with direct and indirect transmission?

In this paper, a compartmental differential epidemic model of COVID-19 pandemic transmission is constructed and analyzed that accounts for the effects of media coverage. The model can be categorized into eight distinct divisions: susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, quarantine class, infected individuals, isolated class, infectious material in the environment, media coverage, and recovered individuals. The qualitative analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. Conversely, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is bigger than one. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological Stress As A Result of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The pressures of life have become a tangible phenomenon in all societies in varying degrees. This disparity determines several factors, including the nature of societies, the level of their urbanization, the intensity of interaction, the intensity of conflict, and the increasing rate of change in those societies. many people name The modern era in which we live the “era of pressures", where one of the most important of these changes is the “new Coronavirus 19-COVID”, which has spread widely throughout the world, as the pandemic, has affected all aspects of daily life, including the educational and academic process, academic activities have been suspended in universities, which caused sudden change

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 04 2022
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading
Abstract<p>This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe</p> ... Show More
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