In this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly illustrated by Computer simulation.
This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe
Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Recently, Iraq is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from this outbreak. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to predict the future of the epidemic and the time of peak, yielding diverse numbers in different countries. This study aims to estimate the basic reproductive number [R0] for COVID-19 in KRI, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of non
... Show MoreBackground: The number of coronavirus infection cases has increased rapidly since early reports in the December 2019 in China. But data on the clinical features of infected peoples is variable from one country to the other.
Objective: Studying clinical features of patients with a positive RT PCR COVID – 19, in a group of Iraqi patients.
Results: The study included 200 patients with 133 (66.5%) males and 67 (33.5%) females, and age range of 14- 89 years, with mean age 46.4 years. A history of contact with a COVID -19 positive case was found in 80 patients (40%), Ischemic Heart Disease in 11 patients (5.5%), hypertension 34 (17%), diabetes mellitus 36 patients (18%). The
... Show MoreThe novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory syndrome with similar traits to common pneumonia. This major pandemic has affected nations both socially and economically, disturbing everyday life and urging the scientific community to develop solutions for the diagnosis and prevention of COVID-19. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR) is the conventional approach used for detecting COVID-19. Nevertheless, the initial stage of the infection is less predictable in PCR tests, making early prediction challenging. A robust and alternative diagnostic method based on digital computerised technologies to support conventional methods would greatly help society. Therefore, this paper reviews recent research bas
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The prevalence of gastrointestinal symptoms of COVID-19 is variable with different types of presentations. Some of them many present with manifestations mimicking surgical emergencies. Yet, the pathophysiology of acute abdomen in the context of COVID-19 remains unclear. We present a case of a previously healthy child who presented with acute appendicitis with multisystemic inflammatory syndrome. We also highlight the necessity of considering the gastrointestinal symptoms of COVID-19 infection in pediatric patients in order to avoid misdiagnosis and further complications. |
Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is
one of the updated challenges facing the whole world.
Objective: To identify the characteristics risk factors that
present in humans to be more liable to get an infection
than others.
Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted for
positively confirmed 35 patients with polymerase chain
reaction in Wasit province at AL-Zahraa Teaching
Hospital from the period of March 13th till April 20th. All
of them full a questionnaire regarded by risk factors and
other comorbidities. Data were analyzed by SPSS version
23 using frequency tables and percentage. For numerical
data, the median, and interquartile range (IQR) were used.
Differences between categoric
Vaccine hesitancy poses a significant risk to global recovery from COVID-19. To date however, there is little research exploring the psychological factors associated with vaccine acceptability and hesitancy in Iraq.
To explore attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination in Iraq. To establish the predictors of vaccine uptake and vaccine hesitancy in an Iraqi population.
Using a cross-sectional design, 7,778 participants completed an online questionnaire exploring their vaccination status, likelihood of infection, perc
In this paper, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) model is proposed and investigated. In fact, the pandemic spread through a close contact between infected people and other people but sometimes the infected people could show two cases; the first is symptomatic and the other is asymptomatic (carrier) as the source of the risk. The outbreak of Covid-19 virus is described by a mathematical model dividing the population into four classes. The first class represents the susceptible people who are unaware of the disease. The second class refers to the susceptible people who are aware of the epidemic by media coverage. The third class is the carrier individuals (asymptomatic) and the fourth class represents the infected ind
... Show MoreThis paper considers the maximum number of weekly cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq from its outbreak in February 2020 until the first of July 2022. Some probability distributions were fitted to the data. Maximum likelihood estimates were obtained and the goodness of fit tests were performed. Results revealed that the maximum weekly cases were best fitted by the Dagum distribution, which was accepted by three goodness of fit tests. The generalized Pareto distribution best fitted the maximum weekly deaths, which was also accepted by the goodness of fit tests. The statistical analysis was carried out using the Easy-Fit software and Microsoft Excel 2019.