In this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly illustrated by Computer simulation.
The coronavirus is a family of viruses that cause different dangerous diseases that lead to death. Two types of this virus have been previously found: SARS-CoV, which causes a severe respiratory syndrome, and MERS-CoV, which causes a respiratory syndrome in the Middle East. The latest coronavirus, originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, is known as the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a new kind of coronavirus that can harm people and was first discovered in Dec. 2019. According to the statistics of the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of people infected with this serious disease has reached more than seven million people from all over the world. In Iraq, the number of people infected has reached more than tw
... Show MoreCoronavirus diseases 2021 (COVID-19) on going situation in Iraq is characterized in this paper. The pandemic handling by the government and the difficulties of public health measures enforcement in Iraq. Estimation of the COVID-19 data set was performed. Iraq is endangered to the pandemic, like the rest of the world besides sharing borders with hotspot neighbouring country Iran. The government of Iraq launched proactive measures in an attempt to prevent the viral spread. Nevertheless, reports of new cases keep escalating leaving the public health officials racing to take more firm constriction to face the pandemic. The paper bring forth the current COVID-19 scenario in Iraq, the government measures towards the public health challenges, and
... Show MoreThis paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components o
... Show MoreCompelling evidence proved that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disproportionately affects minorities. The goal of the present study was to explore the effects of intersected discrimination and discrimination types on COVID-19, mental health, and cognition. A sample of 542 Iraqis, 55.7% females, age ranged from 18 to 73, with (M = 31.16, SD = 9.77). 48.7% were Muslims, and 51.3% were Christians (N = 278). We used measures for COVID-19 stressors, executive functions, intersected discrimination (gender discrimination, social groups-based discrimination, sexual orientation discrimination, and genocidal discrimination), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, status and death, existential anxieties, and health. We conducted in
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