The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The outbreak was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in January 2020 and a pandemic in March 2020. In this study, a complete statistical analysis for SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in entire Iraq, as well as for each governorate separately, is performed for the first time. The study covers a period that starts from the beginning of the pandemic, in the 24th of February 2020, until the 16th of July 2020. It was clear that, although the average number of the reported infection cases was low during February and March, the average infection rate (R0) was >1 (1.3- 2.1), indicating a high spreading rate. During April, when there was a complete lockdown, there was a slight decrease in the RO when the lockdown was lifted, the RO and the number of new cases started to increase rapidly until the 16th of July, when the average number of new cases for every 6 days reached 2281. The cumulative average number of new cases for every six days since the beginning of the pandemic in Iraq on 16 July was 598.4 ±862.4 (Mean± SD). The higher standard deviation than mean value (SD > mean) for most of the analyzes indicates that the official statistics are not reliable. This may be due to the need to conduct further studies as well as the presence of several cases that were not officially reported. In addition, the overall six-day average RO for entire Iraq was 1.4±0.5, with unstable values after the start of the pandemic and absence of monitoring at any time. On the other hand, this study reflects the variations in average RO, average new cases, average recovery rates, average death rates for every 6 days between the Iraqi provinces. Bagdad reported the highest average number of new cases; Babil and Salah aldin reported the highest RO values (2.8± 7.6, 2.5±7.7, respectively). Erbil and Kurkuk reported the highest average recovery rates (372.3± 1340.8, 158±433%, respectively). Babil and Dhiqar reported the highest average death rates (12.2± 63.3, 10.0± 25.8%, respectively), although Duhock did not record any deaths at the time of the study. The data require the attention of the Ministry of Health and Environment to fill in performance holes, as demonstrated by an out-of-control pandemic in Iraq.
Concrete structures are exposed to aggressive environmental conditions that lead to corrosion of the embedded reinforcement and pre-stressing steel. Consequently, the safety of concrete structures may be compromised, and this requires a significant budgets to repair and maintain critical infrastructure. Prediction of structural safety can lead to significant reductions in maintenance costs by maximizing the impact of investments. The aim of this paper is to establish a framework to assess the reliability of existing post-tensioned concrete bridges. A time-dependent reliability analysis of an existing post-tensioned involving the assessment of Ynys-y-Gwas bridge has been presented in this study. The main cause of failure of this bridge was c
... Show MoreThe behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.
DBNRAAK Mohammed, International Journal of Research in Social Sciences and Humanities, 2020
In this paper, a numerical analysis was carried out using finite element method to analyse the mechanisms for streamer discharges. The hydrodynamic model was used with three charge carriers equations (positive ion, negative ion and electron) coupled with Poisson equation to simulate the dynamic of streamer discharge formation and propagation. The model was tested within a 2D axisymmetric tip-plate electrodes configuration using the transformer oil as the dielectric liquid. The distance between the electrodes was fixed at 1 mm and the applied voltage was 130 kV at 46 ns rising time. Simulation results showed that the time has a clear effect on the streamer propagation along the symmetry axis. In addition, it was observed that t
... Show MoreRegression analysis models are adopted by using SPSS program to predict the 28-day compressive strength as dependent variable and the accelerated compressive strength as independent variable. Three accelerated curing method was adopted, warm water (35ºC) and autogenous according to ASTM C C684-99 and the British method (55ºC) according to BS1881: Part 112:1983. The experimental concrete mix design was according to ACI 211.1. Twenty eight concrete mixes with slump rang (25-50) mm and (75-100)mm for rounded and crushed coarse aggregate with cement content (585, 512, 455, 410, 372 and 341)Kg/m3.
The experimental results showed that the acc
... Show MoreThis study deals with formation models of gypsum barrier, chemical temporal changes, and assessments of the Sawa Lake within the Al- Muthanna province, Southern Iraq, it is a very important issue to find the water quality and water assessments of this lake. Eleven water samples are collected from Sawa Lake. Many scientific concepts are used such as major cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ and K+), major anions (SO4=,Cl-,HCO3- and CO3=) with minor anions ( PO43-, NO3-) and H2S . Trace elements (Pb, Cd, Zn, As, Ni, Co, Cu, Mn, Fe, As, Sr And B) and bacterial test were analyzed in each sample. Total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and temperature (T) were directly measured in the field. The equilibrium state between the conce
... Show MoreThis Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters. Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. Many solved examples are intended in this book, in addition to a variety of unsolved relied pro
... Show MoreThis Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters. Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. Many solved examples are intended in this book, in addition to a variety of unsolved relied pro
... Show MoreMetoclopramide (MCP) ion selective electrodes based on metoclopramide-phosphotungstic acid (MCP-PT) ion pair complex in PVC matrix membrane were constructed. The plasticizers used were tri-butyl phosphate (TBP), di-octyl phenyl phosphonate (DOPP), di-butyl phthalate (DBPH), di-octyl phthalate (DOP), di-butyl phosphate (DBP), bis 2-ethyl hexyl phosphate (BEHP). The sensors based on TBP, DOPP, DBPH and DOP display a fast, stable and linear response with slopes 59.9, 57.7, 57.4, 55.3 mV/decade respectively at pH ranged 2-6. The linear concentration range between 1.0×10-5 – 1.0×10-2 M with detection limit 3.0×10-6 and 4.0×10-6 M for electrodes using TBP, DOPP and DBPH while e
... Show MoreIn this paper, the interplay among four population species is offered. The system consists of two competitive prey, predator and super predators. The application of the hypothesis of the Sotomayor theorem for local bifurcation around every equilibrium point is adopted. It is detected that the transcritical bifurcation could occur near most of the system's equilibrium points, while saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcation can not be accrued at any of them. Further, the conditions that guarantee the accruing Hopf bifurcation are carried out. Finally, some numerical analysis is illustrated to confirm the analytical results.