The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
The Dagum Regression Model, introduced to address limitations in traditional econometric models, provides enhanced flexibility for analyzing data characterized by heavy tails and asymmetry, which is common in income and wealth distributions. This paper develops and applies the Dagum model, demonstrating its advantages over other distributions such as the Log-Normal and Gamma distributions. The model's parameters are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MoM). A simulation study evaluates both methods' performance across various sample sizes, showing that MoM tends to offer more robust and precise estimates, particularly in small samples. These findings provide valuable insights into the ana
... Show MoreOne of the most important features of American foreign activity during the second half of the 19th century was the encouragement of sending Protestant missionary missions to all countries around the world. The mission of these missions was facilitated by the weakened state of the Ottoman Empire, the increasing influence of European countries, and their interference in its internal affairs. Despite the Ottoman efforts to counter the activities of these missions, the American missionary missions adopted a well-planned strategy that suited the conditions of the region, aimed at achieving their goals through direct and indirect methods, including intervention in the field of education. These missions gave great importance to educational aspects
... Show MoreWe present the notion of bipolar fuzzy k-ideals with thresholds (
The research studied and analyzed the hybrid parallel-series systems of asymmetrical components by applying different experiments of simulations used to estimate the reliability function of those systems through the use of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes standard method via both symmetrical and asymmetrical loss functions following Rayleigh distribution and Informative Prior distribution. The simulation experiments included different sizes of samples and default parameters which were then compared with one another depending on Square Error averages. Following that was the application of Bayes standard method by the Entropy Loss function that proved successful throughout the experimental side in finding the reliability fun
... Show MoreThe elections of the Council of Representatives in Iraq are one of the manifestations of political participation, which makes it attracts the attention of researchers. Where Iraq witnessed in 2005 important political events in the Iraqi arena, a pluralist parliamentary elections or elections in Iraq by direct free election on January 30, the first almost half a century ago. On November 15 of the same year, Iraq adopted a permanent constitution for the country through a popular referendum.
The objective of the present study is to determine the nature and direction of the correlation between mathematical excellence and learning styles as defined by the Entwistle, model in fifth-grade scientific female students. The descriptive correlational approach was implemented by the two researchers to accomplish the research objectives. A scale was developed to assess the learning styles of female students in the sample in accordance with the Entwistle, model. : (Knowledge, understanding, application, analysis, synthesis, evaluation, systematic thinking, creativity), and the research community was determined by the female students of the scientific fifth grade in the morning preparatory and secondary schools of the General Direct
... Show MoreThe influence of process speed (PS) and tillage depth (TD) , on growth of corn (Zea mays L) yield, for Maha cultivar, were tested at two ranges of PS of 2.483 and 4.011 km.hr-1, and three ranges of TD of 15,20 and 25cm. The experiments were conducted in a factorial experiment under complete randomized design with three replications. The results showed that the PS of 2.483 km.hr-1 was significantly better than the PS of 4.011km.hr-1 in all studied conditions. The , slippage ratio (SR) and the machine efficiency (ME), the physical soil characteristics represented by the soil density and porosity (SBD and TSP), and the plant characteristics represented the roots dry weight, PVI and the crop productivity (CP), except adjective of the fu
... Show MoreThis study aimed to show the relationship between mental health and shyness for university students in Baghdad and Al – Mustansiria university which its subject was (200) students , ( 100) males and ( 100) females , Mental Health scale which is constructed by (Al – Janabi 1991) and developed by (Hassan 2006) was used for this aim ,The scale of shyness was built according to a questioner to the students and according to previous publications and studies .
Multiple regulation analysis step - wise was used for data analysis in order to identify the possibility to find single or couple indications for the independent variable (mental
... Show MoreA multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates i
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