The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem
... Show MoreThe official spokesperson considered responsible for the transmission of information and communication messages that convey the government’s view on the various political and economic issues that affect the public opinion towards the performance achieved by the various governmental institutions and for the purpose of communicating with the media in a positive and effective manner, a number of institutions in the world in general and in Iraq in particular have nominated a spokesman to coordinate the efforts and the dissemination of news and the preparation of press conferences to contribute to the achievement of a positive and effective level between the government and the media, so this study has tackled to deal with the credibility of
... Show MoreIn this paper the definition of fuzzy normed space is recalled and its basic properties. Then the definition of fuzzy compact operator from fuzzy normed space into another fuzzy normed space is introduced after that the proof of an operator is fuzzy compact if and only if the image of any fuzzy bounded sequence contains a convergent subsequence is given. At this point the basic properties of the vector space FC(V,U)of all fuzzy compact linear operators are investigated such as when U is complete and the sequence ( ) of fuzzy compact operators converges to an operator T then T must be fuzzy compact. Furthermore we see that when T is a fuzzy compact operator and S is a fuzzy bounded operator then the composition TS and ST are fuzzy compact
... Show MoreDesigning cloth is a part from culture and civilization of the area of every state to prove its being in all times because it is grown with Man to establish both goals: usefulness and beauty.It is necessary that designer puts in his mind the importance of the designing sources that he derives his designs from , because those sources are also important in that time especially :The Iraqi Ancient Civilization , the Islamic Civilization and Iraqi Folklores . Not to use the cloth sources that doesn't have well known roots in addition to lacking of elements and bases of balance in its different aspects. In conclusion to that studying research subject comes. (Balance Role in designing cloth curtains) The idea or the problem of the research is t
... Show MoreThe Islamic nation accuses these days of cruelty and extremism, and this is not strange. Every nation comes out
Including the hardline and the extremist, but the self-pity is that these charges have become
It went beyond the example and the mercy of the gift that the Almighty said (and you are to create great)
Al-Qalam: 4, and accusing him of not touching him in dealing with the people of the book and others, so try
It is our humble quest to urge our small speeches to clarify the position of Islam and its Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him)
And deal with all human beings, and to show the low level of rights that our prophet has proved
Western laws are parts of his administration and adopted in the field
The paper presents an original method to make the geometric synthesis of the rotary cam and translated tappet with roll. Classical method uses to the geometric synthesis and the reduced tappet velocity, and in this mode the geometric classic method become a geometric and kinematic synthesis method. The new geometric synthesis method uses just the geometric parameters (without velocities), but one utilizes and a condition to realize at the tapped the velocities predicted by the tapped movement laws imposed by the cam profile. Then, it makes the dynamic analyze for the imposed cam profile, and one modify the cam profile geometric parameters to determine a good dynamic response (functionality). In this mode it realizes the dynamic synthesis
... Show MoreThe research problem is that most of the construction projects exceed the planned value, due to the failure to implement the plans on time. The current study aims to monitor the implementation of the project and for each of the executed tasks of the table of quantities in order to detect deviations at the time they occur, evaluate the time and cost performance, and then identify the areas of waste and analyze the implementation of each task in order to diagnose the underlying problems and find possible and applicable solutions in the environment Iraqi. The research was applied in one of the companies specialized in the field of construction projects, and one of the most important conclusions reached is the possibility of applying
... Show MoreThis paper deals with the Magnetohydrodynyamic (Mill)) flow for a viscoclastic fluid of the generalized Oldroyd-B model. The fractional calculus approach is used to establish the constitutive relationship of the non-Newtonian fluid model. Exact analytic solutions for the velocity and shear stress fields in terms of the Fox H-function are obtained by using discrete Laplace transform. The effect of different parameter that controlled the motion and shear stress equations are studied through plotting using the MATHEMATICA-8 software.