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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
comparison between the methods estimate nonparametric and semiparametric transfer function model in time series the Using simulation
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 The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Mathematics In Operational Research
A single server fuzzy queues with priority and unequal service rates
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 25 2017
Journal Name
Oriental Journal Of Chemistry
Relationship Between the structure of Newly Synthesized derivatives of 1,3,4-oxadiazole Containing 2-Methylphenol and their Antioxidant and Antibacterial Activities
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1,3,4-oxadiazole-5-thion ring (2) successfully formed at position six of 2-methylphenol and five of their thioalkyl (3a-e). Furthermore 6-(5-(Aryl)-1,3,4-oxadiazol-2-yl)-2-methylphenol (5a-i) were formed at position six by two method. The first method was from cyclization their corresponding hydrazones (4a-e) of 2-hydroxy-3-methylbenzohydrazide (1) using bromine in glacial acetic acid. The second method was from cyclization the hydrazide with aryl carboxylic acid in the presence of phosphorusoxy chloride. The newly synthesized compounds were characterized from their IR, NMR and mass spectra. The antioxidant properties of these compounds were screened by 2,2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazide (DPPH) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) assay

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 25 2017
Journal Name
Oriental Journal Of Chemistry
Relationship Between the structure of Newly Synthesized derivatives of 1,3,4-oxadiazole Containing 2-Methylphenol and their Antioxidant and Antibacterial Activities
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1, 3, 4-oxadiazole-5-thion ring (2) successfully formed at position six of 2-methylphenol and five of their thioalkyl (3a-e). Furthermore 6-(5-(Aryl)-1, 3, 4-oxadiazol-2-yl)-2-methylphenol (5a-i) were formed at position six by two method. The first method was from cyclization their correspondinghydrazones (4a-e) of 2-hydroxy-3-methylbenzohydrazide (1) using bromine in glacial acetic acid. The second method was from cyclization the hydrazide with aryl carboxylic acid in the presence of phosphorusoxy chloride. The newly synthesized compounds were characterized from their IR, NMR and mass spectra. The antioxidant properties of these compounds were screened by 2, 2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazide (DPPH) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) a

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Romantic Nightingale between Coleridge’s Divergence and Keats’ Adherence: A comparative Study between Coleridge’s ‘The Nightingale’ and Keats’ ‘Ode to a Nightingale’
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‘Ode to a Nightingale’(1819) is a typical poem of a Romantic poet like John Keats, but
‘The Nightingale’(1798) is an uncharacteristic poem of a Romantic poet like Coleridge.
The paper proposes a comparison between Coleridge’s ‘The Nightingale’ and Keats’
‘Ode to a Nightingale’.Coleridge’s poem diverges from the Romantic norm; it carries some
characteristics new to Romantic poetry like the realistic and objective portrayals of nature and
the nightingale, while Keats’ poem adhere to the characteristics of Romantic poetry; it
portrays nature and the nightingale subjectively and unrealistically. Coleridge’s poem is very
much influenced by the scientific approaches to environment, and natural his

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
ESTIMATION OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COEFFICIENT OF CONSOLIDATION AND LIQUID LIMIT OF MIDDLE AND SOUTH IRAQI SOILS
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In this paper, a relationship between the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation of Iraqi soils are studied. The samples of soil used in study are undisturbed silty clay. These samples are taken from different locations and depths of Middle and South of Iraq by cooperation with Consulting Engineering Bureau- University of Baghdad- College of Engineering. The depth reached about 20 meters. The experimental work is made to calculate the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation. From these sites, 280 points are obtained. The relationship between the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation is drawn as a curve. This curve is studied and compared with the curve that obtained from other studies. From these curves, it

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Methods for Estimating Nonparametric Binary Logistic Regression
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In this research, the methods of Kernel estimator (nonparametric density estimator) were relied upon in estimating the two-response logistic regression, where the comparison was used between the method of Nadaraya-Watson and the method of Local Scoring algorithm, and optimal Smoothing parameter λ was estimated by the methods of Cross-validation and generalized Cross-validation, bandwidth optimal λ has a clear effect in the estimation process. It also has a key role in smoothing the curve as it approaches the real curve, and the goal of using the Kernel estimator is to modify the observations so that we can obtain estimators with characteristics close to the properties of real parameters, and based on medical data for patients with chro

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of some methods for estimating Poisson-Weibull distribution parameters
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In this paper was discussed the process of compounding two distributions using new compounding procedure which is connect a number of life time distributions ( continuous distribution ) where is the number of these distributions represent random variable distributed according to one of the discrete random distributions . Based on this procedure have been compounding zero – truncated poisson distribution with weibell distribution to produce new life time distribution having three parameter , Advantage of that failure rate function having many cases ( increasing , dicreasing , unimodal , bathtube) , and study the resulting distribution properties such as : expectation , variance , comulative function , reliability function and fa

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating Parametersof Gumbel Distribution For Maximum Values By using Simulation
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In this research estimated the parameters of Gumbel distribution Type 1 for Maximum values through the use of two estimation methods:- Moments (MoM) and Modification Moments(MM) Method. the Simulation used for comparison between each of the estimation methods to reach the best method to estimate the parameters where the simulation was to generate random data follow Gumbel distributiondepending on three models of the real values of the parameters for different sample sizes with samples of replicate (R=500).The results of the assessment were put in tables prepared for the purpose of comparison, which made depending on the mean squares error (MSE).

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 22 2026
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal Of Administrative And Economic sciences
Analyzing the relationship between human resource management practices and the creative behavior of employees Analytical research in the Ministry of Science and Technology
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