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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 23 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison Between Deterministic and Stochastic Model for Interaction (COVID-19) With Host Cells in Humans
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In this paper, the deterministic and the stochastic models are proposed to study the interaction of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) with host cells inside the human body. In the deterministic model, the value of the basic reproduction number   determines the persistence or extinction of the COVID-19. If   , one infected cell will transmit the virus to less than one cell, as a result,  the person carrying the Coronavirus will get rid of the disease .If   the infected cell  will be able to infect  all  cells that contain ACE receptors. The stochastic model proves that if  are sufficiently large then maybe  give  us ultimate disease extinction although ,  and this  facts also proved by computer simulation.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Using Markov Switching Model to Investigate the Link between the Inflation and Uncertain Inflation in Iraq for the periods 1980-2010"
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In this paper we use the Markov Switching model to investigate the link between the level of Iraqi inflation and its uncertainty; forth period 1980-2010 we measure inflation uncertainty as the variance of unanticipated  inflation. The results ensure there are a negative effect of inflation level on inflation uncertainty and  all so there are a positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation level.                                                   &nbsp

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON THE PUBLIC BUDGET AND TRADE BALANCE IN IRAQ FOR THE DURATION (2004-2017)
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The fluctuations in oil prices in world markets affect the general budget and the trade balance of the rent countries, because oil is a strategic commodity affected by economic and political factors. The fluctuations in oil prices affect the public budgets of the rent countries through the public revenue side of oil revenues. On the other hand, these fluctuations affect the balance of trade through the volume of oil exports, which lead to imbalance of trade surplus or deficit .                                           &nbs

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the relationship between the skills required for the labor market and the employment of graduates of community colleges in KSA: An applied study on a sample of faculty members at KKU
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This study has aimed to measure the relationship between the skills required for the labor market and the employment of graduates of community colleges at King Khalid University. For gathering the required data, a questionnaire has been designed and distributed to the faculty members of community colleges at King Khalid University in a random sample method. The chosen sample size has covered (123) individuals. Questionnaire forms have been distributed and retrieved from (117) participants. Therefore, the estimated response has reached 95 % of the total sample size. The results of the study have shown that there is not any significant relationship between the skills which the graduates   acquire and the requirements of employmen

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of Public Debt on The Trade Balance in Iraq For The Period (2003-2021)
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Despite the significant increase in public spending in Iraq, it was not directed toward the important sectors that have an important role in correcting the productive structure. Rather, most of the public expenditure was going to cover the required imports, or to face shocks, whether security or health, and this caused a continuous decrease in the volume of Iraq's exports of goods and services, as the aim of the study was to review the importance of public debt and its impact on the trade balance, as well as to know the economic policies that can contribute to strengthening the trade balance, as the study proved through the (ARDL) model that there is a direct relationship between the domestic debt and the net trade balance, and an invers

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The contractual budget: the ideal technique in planning and implementing capital budgeting projects: a strategy of preparing the contractual budget for Baghdad local government
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Public budget is the government's tool in achieving the objectives of economic and social development is the accounting curriculum to estimate state revenues and expenditures for years to come, as well as to have legal status as it is after the adoption of an official statement of government units to spend funds on items planned at the same time is a statement collect resources to finance these appropriations, if the primary objective of the budget initially limited to the achievement of financial and legislative control have evolved this function in the area of public administration turned attention from mere imposition of control over the money, which provides information to assist the Department to utilize available resources and prog

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2022
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Phytochemical Comparison Study for Evaluating the Hypolipidemic Effect Between Two Iraqi Pepper Spp in the Rats Model.
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Hypercholesterolemia is a predominant risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The World Health Organization (WHO), ) recommended reducing the intake of cholesterol and saturated fats. On the other hand, limited evidence is available on the benefits of vegetables in the diet to reduce these risk factors, so this research was conducted to compare the hypolipidemic effect between the extracts of two different types of Iraqi peppers, the fruit of the genus Capsicum traditionally known as red pepper extract (RPE), and Piper nigrum as black pepper extract (BPE), respectively, in different parameters and histology of the liver of the experimental animals. The red pepper was extracted by ethyl acetate, while the black pepp

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The causal relationship between inflation and the volume of private sector deposits and the Amman Stock Exchange Index. (The case of Jordan for the period 1999-2017)
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        The study aims to show the correlation between inflation rates and the volume of private sector deposits in Jordan on one hand, and Amman Stock Exchange index for the period of 1999-2017. The study used the “Vector Auto Regression” model. Different types of tests are used such as: The “Johansen Co integration” test of joint integration, “Granger causality” test, the “Analysis of Variance Decomposition”, and “Impulse response Function” test.

The results showed there is a positive-one-way causal effect from Amman Stock Exchange index to inflation. Also, a one-way causal effect that comes from Amman Stock Exchange index to the size of private sec

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 02 2001
Journal Name
University Of Baghdad
Effect of Technology on the Relationship between Form and Structure in Contemporary Interior Space Language.
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Suggested Reciprocal Relationship between Maximum, Minimum and Optimum Usable Frequency Parameters Over Iraqi Zone
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In this work, the relationship between the ionospheric parameters (Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF), Lowest Usable Frequency (LUF) and Optimum working Frequency (OWF)) has been studied for the ionosphere layer over the Iraqi zone. The capital Baghdad (44.42oE, 33.32oN) has been selected to represent the transmitter station and many other cities that spread over Iraqi region have represented as receiver stations. The REC533 communication model considered as one of the modern radio broadcasting version of ITU has been used to calculate the LUF parameter, while the MUF and OWF ionospheric parameters have been generated using ASAPS international communication model which represents one of the most advanced  and

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