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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE MEDIATING ROLE OF PRODUCT INNOVATION ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM AND CUSTOMER ORIENTATION
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 Marketing information system (KMIS) is an essential factor of developing business’ performance and getting sustainable success. The main goal of the research is to measure effect of MIS on customer orientation and product innovation. Also, another goal is to analyze the mediation role of product innovation in relationship MIS and customer orientation. This study sought to analyze the marketing information system and measure its effect on the customer orientation and product innovation. The data of the study were collected using questionnaire. The data were analyzed using statistical tools and SPSS programming. The results of the study showed that the KMIS can positively and significantly effect product innovation. Also, t

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 08 2025
Journal Name
Nursing Science Quarterly
Exploring the Relationship Between Nurses’ Spiritual Intelligence, Critical Thinking, and Moral Development in the Middle East
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The purpose of this study is to assess the level of moral development, spiritual intelligence, and critical thinking of nurses, and to see if there is a relationship between these constructs for them. A descriptive correlational design was used, with a sample of 102 nurses in Iran. The descriptive statistics and Pearson’s correlation were done on the survey results using SPSS (Version 24). The moral development level scores of the nurses were 34 ± 2.17, which is considered average, critical thinking was 25 ± 1.23, which is considered relatively high, and spiritual intelligence scores were 41 ± 2.75, which is considered relatively low. Both spiritual intelligence and critical thinking were positively correla

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
المجلة العربية للعلوم الإنسانية والاجتماعية
The impact of digital transformation on the relationship between commercial bank customers’ empowerment and competitive advantage
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The impact of digital transformation on the relationship between commercial bank customers’ empowerment and competitive advantage

Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The causal relationship between debt size and Economic value added With contrast of the Frim Size
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Abstract

       The research aims to identify  the  nature of  the relationship between the level of debt used  and economic  value  added  of companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange under the Contrast sizes of these companies , The research addressed the theoretical concepts associated with each of the debt financing , economic added value and Organization size With the use of financial techniques in the practical side to measure these variables, The research community Represent of  the shareholding companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange with a choice of intentionally sample of 24 joint stock companies representing&nbsp

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Sustainability Science And Management
THE MEDIATING ROLE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCER COST EXPECTATIONS AND CUSTOMER DESIRES
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In this paper, customers’ expectations are continually shifting due to the business environment’s growing competition and substantial changes. As a result, organisations no longer viewed it as a static objective but as an ever-evolving aim. From this vantage point, the research has explored the accounting literature in search of novel approaches to addressing the strategic dimensions of quality, cost and time. Getting them to respond positively to the customer’s requests also requires recognising their needs and controlling their impact on these dimensions. With the removal of operations that do not contribute any value to the product’s value chain and a reduction in manufacturing costs through continuous improvement, the ou

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Wasit Journal Of Computer And Mathematics Science
Dynamic Data Replication for Higher Availability and Security
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The paradigm and domain of data security is the key point as per the current era in which the data is getting transmitted to multiple channels from multiple sources. The data leakage and security loopholes are enormous and there is need to enforce the higher levels of security, privacy and integrity. Such sections incorporate e-administration, long range interpersonal communication, internet business, transportation, coordinations, proficient correspondences and numerous others. The work on security and trustworthiness is very conspicuous in the systems based situations and the private based condition. This examination original copy is exhibiting the efficacious use of security based methodology towards the execution with blockchain

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Some Estimator Methods of Linear Regression Model With Auto-Correlated Errors With Application Data for the Wheat in Iraq
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This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 24 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
A plan for transportation and distribution the products based on multi-objective travelling salesman problem in fuzzy environmental
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Transportation and distribution are the most important elements in the work system for any company, which are of great importance in the success of the chain work. Al-Rabee factory is one of the largest ice cream factories in Iraq and it is considered one of the most productive and diversified factories with products where its products cover most areas of the capital Baghdad, however, it lacks a distribution system based on scientific and mathematical methods to work in the transportation and distribution processes, moreover, these processes need a set of important data that cannot in any way be separated from the reality of fuzziness industrial environment in Iraq, which led to use the fuzzy sets theory to reduce the levels of uncertainty.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Iraq after 2003(reality and ambition)
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Foreign direct investment is considered one of important bases to blind economy for many. Countries as if the main stage for developing national economy ,so for this ,many of countries give great prominence to the role of drivel foreign investment due to its importance as one of economic growth pillars in the developing countries. They offer a support for modern technology, organizational and managerial skills.        

  Dneto the importance of direct foreign investment on the economic growth, today, we discover that Iraq in need to rebnlid the in frastructuve and renew what has been destroyed during was in many production and export institutions . as wel

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Administrative coordination between the Federal Ministry and the local government and its impact on municipal performance An applied study in the municipalities of Dhi Qar Governorate
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       The aim of the research is to show the extent of the impact of administrative coordination on municipal performance after the state’s tendency to implement administrative decentralization and transfer of powers (administrative, legal, financial, and technical) from the Federal Ministry (construction, housing, municipalities, and public works) to local governments (governorates), to meet local needs, And since the municipality is considered one of the local administrative institutions and most of its goal is to provide increased municipal services to citizens due to population growth and urban expansion of cities by coordinating their actions using their powers, and in order to address gaps i

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