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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 05 2017
Journal Name
Https://www.researchgate.net/journal/international-journal-of-science-and-research-ijsr-2319-7064
Evaluation of Water Quality using Bhargava Water Quality Index Method and GIS, Case Study: Euphrates River in Al-Najaf City
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Removal of SO2 over Modified Activated Carbon in Fixed Bed Reactor: I, Effect of Metal Oxide Loadings and Acid Treatment
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The removal of SO2 from simulated gas stream (SO2 + air) in a fixed bed reactor using Modified Activated Carbon (MAC) catalysts was investigated. All the experiments were conducted at atmospheric pressure, initial SO2 concentration of 2500 ppm and bed temperature of 90oC. MAC was prepared by loading a series of nickel and copper oxides 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 w

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Uranium Concentration in child teeth by track detector CR-39 in same middle and south regions of Iraq
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The study of determing Uranium concentration in samples of teeth is the first of its kind in the Iraq . In this study Uranium concentration has been measured was (32) samples of child teeth distributed on the some of middle and south governorate of Iraq (Muthana – Dekar – Basrah – Najaf – Karbalah – Waset – Babel – Baghdad) . The Uranium concentration in teeth samples has been measured by using fission tracks registration in (CR-39) track detector that caused by the bombardment of (U235) with thermal neutrons falx from (24Am.Be) neutron source that has flux of (5x103n.cm-2S-1). The result obtained show that the Uranium concentrations in governorates were (0.18ppm), (0.172ppm), (0.160ppm), 0.150ppm) (0.89ppm), (0.07ppm) , (0.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparative Study of Grains, Flours and Baking Quality of Wheat Cultivar (Uruq) with Other Wheat Cultivars (Triticumaestivum L.) in Iraq
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The grain hardness, wet and dry gluten contents, protein and ash contents are determined in grains from different cultivars of wheat which are important in food products, either which are present in raw materials or in final products. Wheat is also a very important food raw material, and flour as the final product of milling. The importance of knowing the physical and chemical properties of wheat and flour is due to the determination of quality and kind of flour which is produced after the milling process. In this work, some physical and chemical properties of different wheat cultivars are determined and the comparisons of these characteristics are performed in both wheat and flour. Uruq Wheat sample (W5) has the highest results when compar

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 09 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Effect of Some Isolation Fungi from Iraq / Baghdad Hospitals Apparatus on Physiology of Liver, Kidney and Testis in Albino Mice
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Publication Date
Sat Jul 25 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Estimation of soluble CD14 level in saliva of patients with different periodontal conditions and its correlation with periodontal health status
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Background: Cluster of differentiation 14 (CD14) is a serum/cell surface glycoprotein; and it is a pattern recognition receptor. CD14 expressed on the surface of various cells, or it found soluble in saliva and other body fluids. It has been proposed that soluble CD14 (sCD14) may play a protective role by controlling Gram negative bacterial infections through its capacity to bind lipopolysaccharide. This study was conducted to assess the level of soluble CD14 in saliva of patients with different periodontal diseases and healthy subjects and determine its correlation with clinical periodontal parameters. Materials & Methods: A total of 80 subjects, age ranged (25-50) years old, divided into three main groups, group ? consisted of 45 chronic

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Structural, surface morphology and optical properties of annealing treated Copper Phthalocyanine doped Fullerene (CuPc: C<sub>60</sub>) thin films
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Abstract<p>The doping process with materials related to carbon has become a newly emerged approach for achieving an improvement in different physical properties for the obtained doped films. Thin films of CuPc: C<sub>60</sub> with doping ratio of (100:1) were spin-coated onto pre-cleaned glass substrates at room temperature. The prepared films were annealed at different temperatures of (373, 423 and 473) K. The structural studies, using a specific diffractometry of annealed and as deposited samples showed a polymorphism structure and dominated by CuPc with preferential orientation of the plane (100) of (2θ = 7) except at temperature of 423K which indicated a small peak around (2θ = 3</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of Black Cardamom Extracts on Mutans Streptococci in Comparison to Chlorhexidine Gluconate and De-ionized Water (In Vitro Study)
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Background: Spices and herbs have been used by many cultures to enhance the flavor and aroma of food and for their medicinal value. Black cardamom is one of these spices widely used in cooking because of its unique taste and powerful flavor. The aim of study was to test the effect of black cardamom on Mutans Streptococci in comparison to chlorhexidine gluconate (0.2%) and de-ionized water. Materials and methods: Dried fruits of black cardamom were extracted by using alcohol (70% ethanol). Saliva was collected from seven volunteers. Agar well technique with different concentrations of black cardamom extracts was used to test the sensitivities of Mutans Streptococci, as well black cardamom extracts effect on viable counts of Mutans Streptococ

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heat Production Rate and Radiation Hazard Indices from Radioactive Elements in Different Types of Natural Water in Nineveh Governorate, Iraq.
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The current study sheds light on the measurement and estimation of the radioactivity of radionuclides (238U, 226Ra, 232Th, and 40k) in natural waters of different regions of Nineveh Governorate in Iraq.15 samples were collected from different sources of natural waters, where gamma-ray spectroscopy was used using NaI)TI) sodium iodide detector to determine the concentration of radioactivity in the samples. According to the results, the radioactivity concentration in the tested water sample were ​​ranged from 0.36 ± 0.04-1.57 ± 0.09with an average value of 0.69 ± 0.06 Bq/l for 238U, and 2.9 ± 0.02-0.88 ± 0.03 with an average value of 0.65 ± 0.03 Bq/l for 226Ra Bq/l

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Evaluation of Soil Quality and Health Indices in Relation to Soil Physical Properties of Fedak Farm in Holly Najaf Province
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Fadak farm project was selected to conduct this study in and to evaluate the state of quality and health indices in term of soil physical properties, where this farm is located in Holly Najaf Governorate. Some physical properties (soil texture, mean weight diameter, bulk density, porosity, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity and available water) were selected to assess the quality then health indices, Results showed that classes of moderate and poor soil health were dominated in lands of this farm for physical properties It was noted that the class good of soil health wasnot collaterally appeared in areas for the physical characteristics.

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