The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The educational service one of activities which have great effect in the city life and it's community which considered as an affective instrument for the social and civilized construction and its role in the development of culture and determining the general features of the society. Therefore planning for educational service is considered as a necessary for economical, social and cultural conditions in the Arab community lives in general and the Iraqi community in special. The educational service buildings and distribution forms an insurmountable obstacle in the urban areas. So the balance distribution in Baghdad presents an indication to ensure the equality of educational opportunities besides the correlation of these institutes with th
... Show Moreمدة تولي رئاسة السلطة في الفكر السياسي الاسلامي المعاصر
Abstract
The aim of the research is to clarify the requirements of the qualification of the external auditor in Iraq and the extent of their impact on the quality of the professional performance of the audit process. The research was based on analyzing the results of the questionnaire prepared for the impact of qualifications on the quality of professional performance. The researcher has reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that a highly qualified and unethical auditor has a greater negative impact on the quality of professional performance than those with low qualifications. The most important recommendations of the research were the need to pay
... Show MoreWrong behavioral deviations among youth witnessed an obvious growing, some of these deviations are, robbery, drug and internet addiction, and smoking. Additionally, intellectual extremism and the disrespect of the traditions and genuine customs, In light of this issue, the research aims to shed light on the educational and preventative role of the woman in protecting and immunizing children from the wrong behavioral deviations. The woman has a significant and influential role in the society in general and in her family, in particular to the responsibility lies on her. The research shed light on the manifestations of behavioral deviation in children and the mechanisms of prevention and treatment. The research concluded with a set of recom
... Show MoreThe contribution rate of tax revenues in the federal budget is very small compared to the rate of contribution of oil revenues and this leads to negative repercussions on the Iraqi economy and the budget becomes a prisoner of high and low oil prices, and this is a problem that needs to be studied to know the extent of the impact of economic and political decisions on the size of tax revenue and The research goal is determined in studying the effect of amending the Unified Law No (26) of 2019 on the size of annual tax revenues . &
... Show MoreBack ground: Oral lichen planus is a chronic inflammatory disease that affects the mucous membrane of the mouth. Several researchers suggest that oxidative stress is implicated in the pathogenesis of this disorder. It has been hypothesized that melatonin is powerful anti-oxidants and can easily cross the cell membrane and is considered a free radical scavenger of Hydroxid, Oxygen and Nitrogen dioxide, cortisol as a stress hormone and the immunoglobulin A as first line of defense and protection to the mucous membrane of the mouth are interrelated factors for the emergence of oral lichen planus. Aim of this study was to evaluate the level of melatonin, Cortisol and IgA in saliva of patients with oral lichen planus lesions in comparison with p
... Show MoreTo study the response of the celery plant to nitrogen fertilization and spray with salicylic acid in the leaves content of nutrients, the research was conducted in one of the fields of the Department of Horticulture and Gardening Engineering / College of Agriculture / University of Baghdad within the 2019-2018 season. The research was carried out as a global experiment and with the design of complete randomized sectors (RCBD) and with three replicates, the first factor included the addition of nitrogen with three levels and its symbol (N) (N1 control), (N2) g / m2 18 ), (N3) 37 g / m2 and the second factor spraying acid salicylic is denoted by
Various visual media are becoming an increasingly important and active instrument of communication. This fact has led some political parties and leading personalities in Iraq to make use of them as an accepted forum for the discussion of public affairs usually in a manner that conforms to their declared policy. They have to draw as much popular support as they could for the causes which they fight for. As a result, a state of great confusion has been created from the contradictory statements made by the contending parties and gave left grave consequences on all types of the audience receiving them. The problem of the study can be summarized in one major question: What is the opinions of the audience as regards the statements made by the
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