The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Illiteracy has spread in the last years, although it was eliminated in the 1980s. The return of illiteracy brings ignorance, illness, backwardness and regression among nations. It has taken many types, mainly alphabetical, scientific and computer illiteracy. Hence, the increasing nature of illiteracy has attracted the attention of governments and societies alike. This may touch the reality of societies starting with their youth unless those, who are in charge, will find workable solutions for the existing problems. The results of the study revealed that there is a real disaster awaiting the next generation after years of stray, and ignorance of the people in charge who are too engaged in getting their privileges to care about this proble
... Show MoreFor over a decade, educational technology has been used sparingly in our schools and universities. Online training courses have been used since 2003 to fill the gaps in our learning system and to add extra program besides classroom learning. This paper aims to investigate the Iraqi EFL instructors’ participating in online training courses and its influence on the process of teaching and learning.
The sample of present study consists of 30 instructors from University of Baghdad. The questionnaire of sixteen items was constructed. After ensuring validity and reliability of questionnaire, it was applied on March 2013 and the result shows that most of instructors improve their teaching methods b
... Show MoreThe present study deals with the effect of teaching oral Communication Strategies on English language learners. The use of oral communication strategies not only solves learners’ communication problems, but also enhances the learner’s interaction in target language, which in turn, improves their oral proficiency .The sample of this study is EFL students in the first stage at the Department of English Language, morning studies, College of Education /Ibn-Rushd .The sample of the study consists of (60) students distributed on experimental group(A) includes (30) students, and (30) students as control group(B). In order to achieve the aim of the study, and to gain a closer idea about the impact of teaching oral Communication Strategies on th
... Show MoreThis investigation aimed to explain the mechanism of MFCA by applying this method on air-cooled engine factory which was suffering from high production cost. The results of this study revealed that MFCA is a useful tool to identify losses and inefficiencies of the production process. It is found that the factory is suffering from high losses due to material energy and system losses. In conclusion, it is calculated that system losses are the highest among all the losses due to inefficient use of available production capacity.
In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the
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The Phenomenon of Extremism of Values (Maximum or Rare Value) an important phenomenon is the use of two techniques of sampling techniques to deal with this Extremism: the technique of the peak sample and the maximum annual sampling technique (AM) (Extreme values, Gumbel) for sample (AM) and (general Pareto, exponential) distribution of the POT sample. The cross-entropy algorithm was applied in two of its methods to the first estimate using the statistical order and the second using the statistical order and likelihood ratio. The third method is proposed by the researcher. The MSE comparison coefficient of the estimated parameters and the probability density function for each of the distributions were
... Show MoreInformation from 54 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) brain tumor images (27 benign and 27 malignant) were collected and subjected to multilayer perceptron artificial neural network available on the well know software of IBM SPSS 17 (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). After many attempts, automatic architecture was decided to be adopted in this research work. Thirteen shape and statistical characteristics of images were considered. The neural network revealed an 89.1 % of correct classification for the training sample and 100 % of correct classification for the test sample. The normalized importance of the considered characteristics showed that kurtosis accounted for 100 % which means that this variable has a substantial effect
... Show MoreElemental capture spectroscopy (ECS) is an important tool in the petroleum industry for determining the composition and properties of rock formations in a reservoir. Knowledge of the types and abundance of different minerals in the reservoir is crucial for accurate petrophysical interpretation, reservoir engineering practices, and stratigraphic correlation. ECS measures the elemental content of the rock, which directly impacts several physical properties that are essential for reservoir characterization, such as porosity, fluid saturation, permeability, and matrix density. The ability to accurately determine these properties leads to better reservoir mapping, improved production, and more effective resource management. Accurately de
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