The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The media plays an important role in a number of functions performed by them. Press is one of those media which had and still have a clear role in addressing the various issues, topics, and events. Journalism is no longer as expressed by owners of the liberal theory – it seeks to raise the instincts – but it began to excite the minds of readers to meet their needs. At the same time, it does not neglect the search for the truth and work to deliver it to readers. Some have identified a set of tasks carried out by the press including the interest in public affairs, the needs of the community, work to provide happiness, what is beneficial and useful and combat the negative phenomenon and to address the deviations facing society. The comi
... Show Moreكانت وسائل الاعلام- التقليدية والحديثة – وستبقى وسيلة مهمة لتدفق المعلومات والتعبير عن المشاعر ووصف الاحداث وتشكيل الرأي العام المحلي والدولي عن مختلف القضايا التي تهم الافراد والمجتمعات وفي مقدمتها قضايا العنف بمستوياته كافة ،والتطرف الديني والارهاب بكل مسمياته وستحاول هذه الدراسة ان تقدم اجابات عن اسئلة محددة تمثل الاطار النظري لدراسات مسحية ترصد النظريات التي ترسم الاطر النظرية الت
... Show MoreA discussion about the repercussions of the exchange rate on the behavior of stock markets became one of the basic principles of financial economics. The Istanbul Stock Exchange , considered one of the fastest financial markets growing in the region, driven by solid economic activity, for a diversified economy which classified as one of the the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the aforementioned market witnessed sharp fluctuations in the past few months, coinciding with the continuous fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, posing a serious challenge to the economic and investment environment in a c
... Show Moremodel is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales
This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (
... Show MoreThis experimental study focuses on scouring in box culvert inlets under steady-state conditions and at different percentages of blockage ranging from 0% to 65%, and also looks at the hydraulics of water in the culvert. The investigation shows that the blockage of the culverts has influenced the scouring pattern at the blocked culverts' entrances. Ten experiments were carried out at the laboratory to see how blockage impacts the scouring pattern upstream of a box culvert during steady flow. Both partially blocked and unblocked cases were implemented in this study. The experimental tests were done until the equilibrium scour occurred, which took about 3.5 hours of water flow to reach equilibrium conditions. The results r
... Show MoreIraq enjoys many factors and ingredients that made it “affect and be affected at the same time” by the American-Iranian conflict from the “strategic geographical position” adjacent to Iran as an important point and that Iraq has been part of this conflict since the last period which witnessed the outbreak of the first Gulf War (1980-1988) because of border problems and a dispute over Shatt al-Arab, and what followed after that, specifically from 2003 when the United States of America and its allies occupied Iraq’s lands and made a political change by the destruction of its security and military institutions. It increased the importance of Iraq in being a subject of competition between the competing parties in exploiting the
... Show MoreThe research aimed to compare the performance of the commercial and the Islamic banks listed in the Palestinian's Stock Exchange .To achieve the objectives of the study we selected all the commercial and the Islamic banks listed in the Palestinian Stock Exchange to obtain the necessary data for the analysis process during the period of (2009-2013) .the comparison based on the performance indicators ( liquidity rate, profitability rate ,the activity rate and the market rate).
a statistical method was used to analyze the date to find the performance differences between the commercial banks,
... Show MoreSince the beginning of 21st century, the prices of Agricultural crops have increased. This Increases is accompanied with that increases of crude oil prices and fluctuation of a dollar exchange rate as a dominant currency used in the global trade. The paper aimed to analysis the short run and long run cointegration relationships between prices of some of Agricultural crops imported by Iraq such as wheat and rice crops and both the crude oil prices and the Iraq dinar exchange rate a gained America dollar using ARDL model. The results show the long run equilibrium between they three variable throng the error correction mechanizem. The results also show the significant and economically sound effects of cru
... Show MoreIraqi EFL teachers face problems in teaching “English for Iraq Series” for primary public school pupils. In this paper, the researchers are going to identify the main problems faced by our teachers and try to find solutions to these problems. To achieve the aim of the study, list of questions asked and from teachers’ responses, the researchers have got an idea about the main problems which are related to textbook material, parents, learners, environment and technology. Therefore, the researchers adapted a questionnaire to achieve the purpose of the study with some changes and modifications. This questionnaire with five point scale (strongly agree, agree, undecided, disagree, strongly disagree). To achieve face validity, the
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