The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
This paper study two stratified quantile regression models of the marginal and the conditional varieties. We estimate the quantile functions of these models by using two nonparametric methods of smoothing spline (B-spline) and kernel regression (Nadaraya-Watson). The estimates can be obtained by solve nonparametric quantile regression problem which means minimizing the quantile regression objective functions and using the approach of varying coefficient models. The main goal is discussing the comparison between the estimators of the two nonparametric methods and adopting the best one between them
The Ant System Algorithm (ASA) is a member of the ant colony algorithms family in swarm intelligence methods (part of the Artificial Intelligence field), which is based on the behavior of ants seeking a path and a source of food in their colonies. The aim of This algorithm is to search for an optimal solution for Combinational Optimization Problems (COP) for which is extremely difficult to find solution using the classical methods like linear and non-linear programming methods.
The Ant System Algorithm was used in the management of water resources field in Iraq, specifically for Haditha dam which is one of the most important dams in Iraq. The target is to find out an efficient management system for
... Show MoreThe statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions . The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).
The research
... Show MoreThis paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq
Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit tests, which are to determine
Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC), Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu
... Show MoreThe analysis of the orientations of Iraqi art commodification contributed to the discovery of deliberation, which was founded in the deliberative discourse in the trends towards commodification in the Iraqi art, since the important transformations in social structures and relations produced a dictionary with new vocabulary and tools that replaced the traditions and norms that have been in circulation for a century. Deliberation and commodification have become more prevalent in the mechanics and trends of the art where the pace of change is becoming increasingly frantic towards the market. The general market for art constitutes one of the most effective phenomena within contemporary art, that there has been a proliferation of sales auctio
... Show MorePOSSIBILITY OF APPLICATION THE BALANCED SCORECARD IN THE IRAQI INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES: A PROPOSED MODEL
The scholastic view of public religion differed, and this difference was on two extremes. All economic schools agreed that public debt is a monetary liquidity that was unjustly deducted from the income and output cycle as a result of the imbalance in the economic balance and the departure from the conditions of balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Debt is a waste of financial resources allocated to productive accumulation. Except for the Keynesian school, which considers public debt to be an addition to aggregate demand after the decline in the role of the private sector in investment as a result of pessimistic expectations that warn of signs of economic contraction. Public debt is linked to the ex
... Show MoreThe military presence in the Gulf region after the British withdrawal from it in 1971 was one of the most important pillars of the American strategy to climb the ladder of global leadership, as the geostrategic features that the region enjoyed provided factors of controlling energy sources and global trade routes. The United States of America guarantees Western Europe and Japan the process of access to energy sources and the exclusion of its opponents from the region, especially the Soviet Union, and the growing American military presence in the Gulf after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. On the other hand, the region experiences many contradictions, some of which threaten its security, such as the exacerbation of disputes between its count
... Show MoreThis research aims to study the mechanism of application of international specification requirements (ISO 9001: 2015) at the Iraqi Center- Korean Vocational Training return to vocational training department at the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs for the purpose of preparing and creating the center to get a certificate of conformity with the requirements of the standard (ISO 9001: 2015) that would elevate the level of performance and services provided in the respondent Center after it is identified and the study of the reality of the quality management system by identifying strengths and weaknesses in the system to diagnose the gap and find ways to address that gap, and adopted the researchers the case study method to conduc
... Show MorePublic spending represents the government’s financial leverage and has a significant impact on real and monetary economic variables, and one of these effects is the effect of public spending on the exchange rate as an important monetary variable for monetary policy, As we know that public spending in Iraq is financed from oil revenues sold in US dollars, and the Ministry of Finance converts the US dollar into Iraqi dinars to finance the government's need to spend within the requirements and obligations of the state's general budget, And converting the US dollar into Iraqi dinars has an impact on the parallel exchange market, even if there is a contractual exchange rate between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq to
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