The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
This paper study two stratified quantile regression models of the marginal and the conditional varieties. We estimate the quantile functions of these models by using two nonparametric methods of smoothing spline (B-spline) and kernel regression (Nadaraya-Watson). The estimates can be obtained by solve nonparametric quantile regression problem which means minimizing the quantile regression objective functions and using the approach of varying coefficient models. The main goal is discussing the comparison between the estimators of the two nonparametric methods and adopting the best one between them
The analysis of the orientations of Iraqi art commodification contributed to the discovery of deliberation, which was founded in the deliberative discourse in the trends towards commodification in the Iraqi art, since the important transformations in social structures and relations produced a dictionary with new vocabulary and tools that replaced the traditions and norms that have been in circulation for a century. Deliberation and commodification have become more prevalent in the mechanics and trends of the art where the pace of change is becoming increasingly frantic towards the market. The general market for art constitutes one of the most effective phenomena within contemporary art, that there has been a proliferation of sales auctio
... Show MoreNew two experiments of the three factors, in this study were constructed to investigate the effects, of the fixed variations to the box plot on subjects' judgments of the box lengths. These two experiments were constructed as an extension to the group B experiments, the ratio experiments the experiments with two variables carried out previously by Hussin, M.M. (1989, 2006, 2007). The first experiment box notch experiment, and the second experiment outlier values experiment. Subjects were asked to judge what percentage the shorter represented of the longer length in pairs of box lengths and give an estimate of percentage, one being a standard plot and the other being of a different box lengths and
... Show MoreThe military presence in the Gulf region after the British withdrawal from it in 1971 was one of the most important pillars of the American strategy to climb the ladder of global leadership, as the geostrategic features that the region enjoyed provided factors of controlling energy sources and global trade routes. The United States of America guarantees Western Europe and Japan the process of access to energy sources and the exclusion of its opponents from the region, especially the Soviet Union, and the growing American military presence in the Gulf after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. On the other hand, the region experiences many contradictions, some of which threaten its security, such as the exacerbation of disputes between its count
... Show MorePOSSIBILITY OF APPLICATION THE BALANCED SCORECARD IN THE IRAQI INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES: A PROPOSED MODEL
Undesirable growth of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crop under an excessive N fertilizer application is the main obstacle presently. This research was conducted to investigate the response of different potato cultivars; Russet Burbank, Shepody, and Superior, and its qualitative characteristics under a series of N rates. Six rates of N fertilization (0–280 kg ha−1) were applied on 11 sites in a randomized complete block design, with four replications. Sites with ≥30 g kg−1 of soil organic matter (OM) produced total tuber yield, marketable yield, and tuber weight per plant 39.5, 45.2, and 54.9%, respectively, higher than sites with ≤30 g kg−1 of OM. Tubers specific gravity increased by 0.18% in the sites with ≥30 g kg−1 of OM.
... Show MoreThis paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq
Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit tests, which are to determine
Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC), Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu
... Show MoreThe statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions . The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).
The research
... Show MoreThe Ant System Algorithm (ASA) is a member of the ant colony algorithms family in swarm intelligence methods (part of the Artificial Intelligence field), which is based on the behavior of ants seeking a path and a source of food in their colonies. The aim of This algorithm is to search for an optimal solution for Combinational Optimization Problems (COP) for which is extremely difficult to find solution using the classical methods like linear and non-linear programming methods.
The Ant System Algorithm was used in the management of water resources field in Iraq, specifically for Haditha dam which is one of the most important dams in Iraq. The target is to find out an efficient management system for
... Show MoreIraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w
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