The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

The interaction in the city is reflected in the movement of people motivated by their activities and their economic and social goals, which include many variables subject to the planning process in the interpretation of this movement and the mapping of trends of transport intensity through the concept of transport function and its functional relationships with the uses of the earth in the sustainability and effectiveness of the movement of transport and Economic activity and population movement. Transport planners are concerned with the requirements of land use, which are linked to and included in the transport planning process as a factor for the future transport needs. There is a strong relationship between the transport system

   The most frequently diagnosed condition in women at the age of reproduction is the polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS).it could be related to a complex endocrine condition, due to its heterogeneity and uncertainty about its etiology, as the clinical highlights of PCOS incorporate those related to reproductive signs such as decreased frequency of ovulation, irregular menstrual cycles, decreased fertility. Carnitine plays a substantial role in weight loss, glucose tolerance, insulin function and fatty acid metabolism. Thus carnitine plays a crucial role in controlling  obesity, insulin resistance, oxidative stress that are  associated with PCOS .While, AGEs are a diverse group of reactive molecules that are formed end

The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals

Microbial Desalination Cell (MDC) is capable of desalinating seawater, producing electrical power and treating wastewater. Previously, chemical cathodes were used, which were application restrictions due to operational expenses are quite high, low levels of long-term viability and high toxicity. A pure oxygen cathode was using, external resistance 50 and 150 k Ω were studied with two concentrations of NaCl in the desalination chamber 15-25 g/L which represents the concentration of brackish water and sea water. The highest energy productivity was obtained, which amounted to 44 and 46 mW/m³, and the maximum limit for desalination of saline water was (31% and 26%) for each of 25 g / L and 15 g / L, respectively, when using an ex

Abu Firas al- Hamdani is one of the most prominent abbasid poets Who characterized their poetry with high artistic quality especially in his Romyate which blended the quality of feelings of grief, sorrow, longing and nostalgia that makes sensitive self conflict that stems with time from one hand and with place on the other hand. Because we are dealing with a poet lived west spatial coercive which it has been hurt him within a time conflict swinging between despair and some times patience and hope other times between the present and his painful reality also between the past and the beautiful times.
This researcher is to stand on this Romyat by monitoring effectiveness of the poetic text based on conflict between the presenc

Background: The immune system of the oral cavity suffers alterations due to fixed orthodontic treatment which act as potent stimulus for oral secretory immunity. The aims of this study are to estimate the effect of fixed orthodontic appliance on the level of salivary sIgA at different time intervals, and to verify the gender difference. Materials and method: The patient's history, clinical examination, and fixed orthodontic appliances were placed for 30 Iraqi orthodontic adult patients had class II division 1 and/ or class I malocclusion (15 males and 15 females) aged 18-25 years old. The unstimulated whole saliva was collected from each sample immediately before wearing fixed appliance (control group T0 as base line), and after 2 weeks (T1

This study discusses the semiotic of the Islamic blazon - a related analytical study between the Islamic blazon and its visual publicity message. The aim of the current study is to explore the related relationship between the Islamic blazon and its visual publicity message. The sample is contained Five of Islamic blazon in the Mamelukes period which is between 1250 to 1517. The methodology is descriptive-analytical, and the result is that there is a clear relation between the Islamic blazon with its visual publicity message. This study's recommendation is to go towards analyzing the meanings of the cultural legacies of the Islamic civilization, and researching the implicit meanings accompanying these features leads to a deeper understand

This work examines numerically the effects of particle size, particle thermal conductivity and inlet velocity of forced convection heat transfer in uniformly heated packed duct. Four packing material (Aluminum, Alumina, Glass and Nylon) with range of thermal conductivity (from200 W/m.K for Aluminum to 0.23 W/m.K for Nylon), four particle diameters (1, 3, 5 and 7 cm), inlet velocity ( 0.07, 0.19 and 0.32 m/s) and constant heat flux ( 1000, 2000 and 3000 W/ m ²) were investigated. Results showed that heat transfer (average Nusselt number Nu_av) increased with increasing packing conductivity; inlet velocity and heat flux, but decreased with increasing particle size.Also, Aluminum average Nusselt number is about (0.85,2.

The role of residues in the adsorption process for removing contaminants from their aqueous solution was highlighted in this study. The adsorption capacity of eggshells were used to remove the methyl orange dye from its aqueous solution. The highest dye adsorption was found to range between (62.30% to 62.33%). The results of using adsorption isotherms (Freundlich, Langmuir, and Temkin) have been revealed that the Freundlich model was followed and that the Langmuir model did not match, as well as the partial applicability of Temkin's model at temperatures (298,308,318) K. The process of adsorption is a physical one. Three kinetic models of the adsorption process were also used, with the results demonstrating the applicability of the pseud