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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Building a High Accuracy Transfer Learning-Based Quality Inspection System at Low Costs
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      Products’ quality inspection is an important stage in every production route, in which the quality of the produced goods is estimated and compared with the desired specifications. With traditional inspection, the process rely on manual methods that generates various costs and large time consumption. On the contrary, today’s inspection systems that use modern techniques like computer vision, are more accurate and efficient. However, the amount of work needed to build a computer vision system based on classic techniques is relatively large, due to the issue of manually selecting and extracting features from digital images, which also produces labor costs for the system engineers.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Short Text Semantic Similarity Measurement Approach Based on Semantic Network
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Estimating the semantic similarity between short texts plays an increasingly prominent role in many fields related to text mining and natural language processing applications, especially with the large increase in the volume of textual data that is produced daily. Traditional approaches for calculating the degree of similarity between two texts, based on the words they share, do not perform well with short texts because two similar texts may be written in different terms by employing synonyms. As a result, short texts should be semantically compared. In this paper, a semantic similarity measurement method between texts is presented which combines knowledge-based and corpus-based semantic information to build a semantic network that repre

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2026
Journal Name
Sustainable Futures
Using ethical artificial intelligence (EAI) to achieve sustainable development in Iraq: A case study based on a novel model
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This study proposes a pioneering Ethical Artificial Intelligence (EAI) framework for advancing sustainable development in Iraq by integrating eight multidimensional sustainability indicators—administrative, technological, economic, environmental, social, legal, security, and governance. Utilizing data from 60 completed development projects, the framework combines SPSS statistical analysis, the SMART-AI model, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to identify key determinants of project success and failure. Results reveal a 37% project failure rate, with administrative and technological deficiencies emerging as the most influential predictors. The SMART-AI model achieved an accuracy of 91.3% using stratified k-fold cross-validation. A bilin

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Constructing a Scale for the Nine Types of Students Personality: Constructing a Scale for the Nine Types of Students Personality
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Abstract

The current research aims to construct a scale for the nine types of students’ personality according to Rob Fitzel model. To do this, (162) items were formed that present the nine types of personality with (18) items for each type. To test the validity of the scale, a sample of (584) students of Al-Mustansrya University were chosen. The data of their responses was analyzed by using factor analysis. The findings explored (9) factors as one factor for each type of personality with (12) items for each one. Then, the reliability of the scale was found by using the test-retest method and Alfa Cronbach method.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
How to build a virtual personal imagined in the picture, directed by James Cameron (Avatar) movie as a model
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The personal drama in particular, and one of the key elements underlying the dramatic structure to convey ideas and visions presented by the author when writing the text of the dramatic fall after that on the way out the submission form that suits the proposals of the text and processors directorial would push the wheel of dramatic structure to the front. So take the maker of the artwork (writer) undertook the transfer of those events and personalities in art presumed sometimes real and sometimes, in order to enrich the art inspired by the human reality through the ages, and full of its themes and ideas that led to the development experiences of peoples experiences of living. Therefore, we find it important to research in the characters

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Building social intelligence scale and applied to a sample at the Deprived and non-Deprived students from their parents at the Secondary stage
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The current research aims to :
•know the level of social intelligence of the sample as a whole .
. •taraf statistically significant differences in social intelligence between disadvantaged and
non-disadvantaged peers .
To achieve these objectives, the selected sample of Talbhalmrahlh medium and specifically
students of the second grade average, were chosen randomly stratified's (360) students
included sex (male, female) and (deprived of the Father and the non-deprived) for the
academic year (2013-2014) for the province of Baghdad on both sides (Rusafa-Karkh (
As applied to them measurements of social intelligence, which is prepared by the researcher,
having achieved _khasaúsma of psychometric (valid and re

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Markov chains to forecast the exports of Iraqi crude oil
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       In this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.

Keywords: Using Markov chains

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
A new Cumulative Damage Model for Fatigue Life Prediction under Shot Peening Treatment
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 Abstract

In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Robot Arm Path Planning Using Modified Particle Swarm Optimization based on D* algorithm
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Abstract

Much attention has been paid for the use of robot arm in various applications. Therefore, the optimal path finding has a significant role to upgrade and guide the arm movement. The essential function of path planning is to create a path that satisfies the aims of motion including, averting obstacles collision, reducing time interval, decreasing the path traveling cost and satisfying the kinematics constraints. In this paper, the free Cartesian space map of 2-DOF arm is constructed to attain the joints variable at each point without collision. The D*algorithm and Euclidean distance are applied to obtain the exact and estimated distances to the goal respectively. The modified Particle Swarm Optimization al

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate Kernel Ridge Regression Function in Multiple Regression
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             In general, researchers and statisticians in particular have been usually used non-parametric regression models when the parametric methods failed to fulfillment their aim to analyze the models  precisely. In this case the parametic methods are useless so they turn to non-parametric methods for its easiness in programming. Non-parametric methods can also used to assume the parametric regression model for subsequent use. Moreover, as an advantage of using non-parametric methods is to solve the problem of Multi-Colinearity between explanatory variables combined with nonlinear data. This problem can be solved by using kernel ridge regression which depend o

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