The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The personal drama in particular, and one of the key elements underlying the dramatic structure to convey ideas and visions presented by the author when writing the text of the dramatic fall after that on the way out the submission form that suits the proposals of the text and processors directorial would push the wheel of dramatic structure to the front. So take the maker of the artwork (writer) undertook the transfer of those events and personalities in art presumed sometimes real and sometimes, in order to enrich the art inspired by the human reality through the ages, and full of its themes and ideas that led to the development experiences of peoples experiences of living. Therefore, we find it important to research in the characters
... Show MoreThe current research aims to :
•know the level of social intelligence of the sample as a whole .
. •taraf statistically significant differences in social intelligence between disadvantaged and
non-disadvantaged peers .
To achieve these objectives, the selected sample of Talbhalmrahlh medium and specifically
students of the second grade average, were chosen randomly stratified's (360) students
included sex (male, female) and (deprived of the Father and the non-deprived) for the
academic year (2013-2014) for the province of Baghdad on both sides (Rusafa-Karkh (
As applied to them measurements of social intelligence, which is prepared by the researcher,
having achieved _khasaúsma of psychometric (valid and re
Estimating the semantic similarity between short texts plays an increasingly prominent role in many fields related to text mining and natural language processing applications, especially with the large increase in the volume of textual data that is produced daily. Traditional approaches for calculating the degree of similarity between two texts, based on the words they share, do not perform well with short texts because two similar texts may be written in different terms by employing synonyms. As a result, short texts should be semantically compared. In this paper, a semantic similarity measurement method between texts is presented which combines knowledge-based and corpus-based semantic information to build a semantic network that repre
... Show MoreIn this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.
Keywords: Using Markov chains
The aims of the paper are to present a modified symmetric fuzzy approach to find the best workable compromise solution for quadratic fractional programming problems (QFPP) with fuzzy crisp in both the objective functions and the constraints. We introduced a modified symmetric fuzzy by proposing a procedure, that starts first by converting the quadratic fractional programming problems that exist in the objective functions to crisp numbers and then converts the linear function that exists in the constraints to crisp numbers. After that, we applied the fuzzy approach to determine the optimal solution for our quadratic fractional programming problem which is supported theoretically and practically. The computer application for the algo
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Much attention has been paid for the use of robot arm in various applications. Therefore, the optimal path finding has a significant role to upgrade and guide the arm movement. The essential function of path planning is to create a path that satisfies the aims of motion including, averting obstacles collision, reducing time interval, decreasing the path traveling cost and satisfying the kinematics constraints. In this paper, the free Cartesian space map of 2-DOF arm is constructed to attain the joints variable at each point without collision. The D*algorithm and Euclidean distance are applied to obtain the exact and estimated distances to the goal respectively. The modified Particle Swarm Optimization al
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The research aimed to prepare an audit program focusing on the activities of municipal institutions related to the environmental dimension as one of the dimensions of sustainable development, and applying the program for the purpose of preparing an oversight report related to assessing the impact of the activities of municipal institutions on the environmental reality as the main channel through which municipal institutions contribute to achieving the part related to it. Among the requirements of sustainable development, the proposed program was prepared and applied to the institutions affiliated to the Directorate of Mu
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In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
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The traffic jams taking place in the cities of the Republic of Iraq in general and the province of Diwaniyah especially, causes return to the large numbers of the modern vehicles that have been imported in the last ten years and the lack of omission for old vehicles in the province, resulting in the accumulation of a large number of vehicles that exceed the capacity of the city's streets, all these reasons combined led to traffic congestion clear at the time of the beginning of work in the morning, So researchers chose local area network of the main roads of the province of Diwaniyah, which is considered the most important in terms of traffic congestion, it was identified fuzzy numbers for
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