The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
The traffic jams taking place in the cities of the Republic of Iraq in general and the province of Diwaniyah especially, causes return to the large numbers of the modern vehicles that have been imported in the last ten years and the lack of omission for old vehicles in the province, resulting in the accumulation of a large number of vehicles that exceed the capacity of the city's streets, all these reasons combined led to traffic congestion clear at the time of the beginning of work in the morning, So researchers chose local area network of the main roads of the province of Diwaniyah, which is considered the most important in terms of traffic congestion, it was identified fuzzy numbers for
... Show MoreA common approach to the color image compression was started by transform
the red, green, and blue or (RGB) color model to a desire color model, then applying
compression techniques, and finally retransform the results into RGB model In this
paper, a new color image compression method based on multilevel block truncation
coding (MBTC) and vector quantization is presented. By exploiting human visual
system response for color, bit allocation process is implemented to distribute the bits
for encoding in more effective away.
To improve the performance efficiency of vector quantization (VQ),
modifications have been implemented. To combines the simple computational and
edge preservation properties of MBTC with high c
The goal of the research is to develop a sustainable rating system for roadway projects in Iraq for all of the life cycle stages of the projects which are (planning, design, construction and operation and maintenance). This paper investigates the criteria and its weightings of the suggested roadway rating system depending on sustainable planning activities. The methodology started in suggesting a group of sustainable criteria for planning stage and then suggesting weights from (1-5) points for each one of it. After that data were collected by using a closed questionnaire directed to the roadway experts group in order to verify the criteria weightings based on the relative importance of the roadway related impacts
... Show MoreThe personal drama in particular, and one of the key elements underlying the dramatic structure to convey ideas and visions presented by the author when writing the text of the dramatic fall after that on the way out the submission form that suits the proposals of the text and processors directorial would push the wheel of dramatic structure to the front. So take the maker of the artwork (writer) undertook the transfer of those events and personalities in art presumed sometimes real and sometimes, in order to enrich the art inspired by the human reality through the ages, and full of its themes and ideas that led to the development experiences of peoples experiences of living. Therefore, we find it important to research in the characters
... Show MoreThe current research aims to :
•know the level of social intelligence of the sample as a whole .
. •taraf statistically significant differences in social intelligence between disadvantaged and
non-disadvantaged peers .
To achieve these objectives, the selected sample of Talbhalmrahlh medium and specifically
students of the second grade average, were chosen randomly stratified's (360) students
included sex (male, female) and (deprived of the Father and the non-deprived) for the
academic year (2013-2014) for the province of Baghdad on both sides (Rusafa-Karkh (
As applied to them measurements of social intelligence, which is prepared by the researcher,
having achieved _khasaúsma of psychometric (valid and re
Regarding to the computer system security, the intrusion detection systems are fundamental components for discriminating attacks at the early stage. They monitor and analyze network traffics, looking for abnormal behaviors or attack signatures to detect intrusions in early time. However, many challenges arise while developing flexible and efficient network intrusion detection system (NIDS) for unforeseen attacks with high detection rate. In this paper, deep neural network (DNN) approach was proposed for anomaly detection NIDS. Dropout is the regularized technique used with DNN model to reduce the overfitting. The experimental results applied on NSL_KDD dataset. SoftMax output layer has been used with cross entropy loss funct
... Show MoreThe optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a
... Show MoreAbstract
In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
... Show MoreAbstract
The research aimed to prepare an audit program focusing on the activities of municipal institutions related to the environmental dimension as one of the dimensions of sustainable development, and applying the program for the purpose of preparing an oversight report related to assessing the impact of the activities of municipal institutions on the environmental reality as the main channel through which municipal institutions contribute to achieving the part related to it. Among the requirements of sustainable development, the proposed program was prepared and applied to the institutions affiliated to the Directorate of Mu
... Show More