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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 23 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Anomaly Detection Approach Based on Deep Neural Network and Dropout
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   Regarding to the computer system security, the intrusion detection systems are fundamental components for discriminating attacks at the early stage. They monitor and analyze network traffics, looking for abnormal behaviors or attack signatures to detect intrusions in early time. However, many challenges arise while developing flexible and efficient network intrusion detection system (NIDS) for unforeseen attacks with high detection rate. In this paper, deep neural network (DNN) approach was proposed for anomaly detection NIDS. Dropout is the regularized technique used with DNN model to reduce the overfitting. The experimental results applied on NSL_KDD dataset. SoftMax output layer has been used with cross entropy loss funct

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanical Engineering
Thermal Buckling of Laminated Plates using Modified Mantari Function
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Critical buckling temperature of laminated plate under thermal load varied linearly along the thickness, is developed using a higher-order shape function which depends on a parameter ‘‘m’’, which is improved to obtain results for thin and thick plates. Laminated plates’ equations of motion are obtained using virtual work principle and solved for simply supported boundary conditions. Angle and cross laminates thermal buckled mode shapes with different E1/E2 proportion, number of plies, (α2/α1) proportion, aspect ratios, are investigated. It is observed that this shape function gives thermal buckling for thin and thick plates but with m = 0.05 that agree well with other theories and linear distribution of temperature giv

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2024
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Towards sustainable urbanism: The arcology and organic compact urban formation as the approach of sustainable urban design- A comparative study
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Arcology is a new vision of urban design for densely populated settlements. It is referred to as the urban formation aimed at achieving the highest level of utilization in the least area of land to reduce human impact on the environment. Moreover, the integration of this formation with the environment will work to reduce energy consumption, and achieve an economy that is characterized by adaptation and self-sufficiency, leading towards sustainable urbanism. The current study deals with this new concept in sustainable urban design, in an attempt to investigate its impact on traditional urban formation and to make a comparison between them. The lack of a clear conception of the term ‘arcology’ and comparing it with the organic compact urb

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study of a-Si:H Absorption Edge Using Dunstan’s Model
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The optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Sustainable Chemistry And Pharmacy
A sustainable approach to utilize olive pips for the sorption of lead ions: Numerical modeling with aid of artificial neural network
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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Astronomi cal Color Image Compression Using Multilevel Block Truncation Coding –Modified Vector Quantization Technique
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A common approach to the color image compression was started by transform
the red, green, and blue or (RGB) color model to a desire color model, then applying
compression techniques, and finally retransform the results into RGB model In this
paper, a new color image compression method based on multilevel block truncation
coding (MBTC) and vector quantization is presented. By exploiting human visual
system response for color, bit allocation process is implemented to distribute the bits
for encoding in more effective away.
To improve the performance efficiency of vector quantization (VQ),
modifications have been implemented. To combines the simple computational and
edge preservation properties of MBTC with high c

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Sustainable Roadway Planning: A Model for a Proposed Rating System in Iraq
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     The goal of the research is to develop a sustainable rating system for roadway projects in Iraq for all of the life cycle stages of the projects which are (planning, design, construction and operation and maintenance). This paper investigates the criteria and its weightings of the suggested roadway rating system depending on sustainable planning activities. The methodology started in suggesting a group of sustainable criteria for planning stage and then suggesting weights from (1-5) points for each one of it. After that data were collected by using a closed questionnaire directed to the roadway experts group in order to verify the criteria weightings based on the relative importance of the roadway related impacts

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A proposed model program to audit the contribution of municipal institutions to achieving the environmental dimension of sustainable development "applied research"
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Abstract

               The research aimed to prepare an audit program focusing on the activities of municipal institutions related to the environmental dimension as one of the dimensions of sustainable development, and applying the program for the purpose of preparing an oversight report related to assessing the impact of the activities of municipal institutions on the environmental reality as the main channel through which municipal institutions contribute to achieving the part related to it. Among the requirements of sustainable development, the proposed program was prepared and applied to the institutions affiliated to the Directorate of Mu

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