The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
... Show MoreThis manuscript presents a new approach to accurately calculating exponential integral function that arises in many applications such as contamination, groundwater flow, hydrological problems and mathematical physics. The calculation is obtained with easily computed components without any restrictive assumptions
A detailed comparison of the execution times is performed. The calculated results by the suggested approach are better and faster accuracy convergence than those calculated by other methods. Error analysis of the calculations is studied using the absolute error and high convergence is achieved. The suggested approach out-performs all previous methods used to calculate this function and this decision is
... Show MoreThe optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a
... Show MoreA common approach to the color image compression was started by transform
the red, green, and blue or (RGB) color model to a desire color model, then applying
compression techniques, and finally retransform the results into RGB model In this
paper, a new color image compression method based on multilevel block truncation
coding (MBTC) and vector quantization is presented. By exploiting human visual
system response for color, bit allocation process is implemented to distribute the bits
for encoding in more effective away.
To improve the performance efficiency of vector quantization (VQ),
modifications have been implemented. To combines the simple computational and
edge preservation properties of MBTC with high c
The problem of the study crystallized in the following main question: What is the role of media awareness in building the student’s personality according to the opinions of a sample of middle school students? The importance of the research derives from the importance of media awareness being an important variable in building the student’s personality. The sample size was (50) students at Al-Kadhimiya Al-Sabahiya Preparatory School for Boys. In this research, a scale was used to measure the role of media awareness in building personality through (16) items on three axes (cognitive, skill, emotional), and the validity and reliability of this scale were extracted, and the results showed the following:
Abstract
The traffic jams taking place in the cities of the Republic of Iraq in general and the province of Diwaniyah especially, causes return to the large numbers of the modern vehicles that have been imported in the last ten years and the lack of omission for old vehicles in the province, resulting in the accumulation of a large number of vehicles that exceed the capacity of the city's streets, all these reasons combined led to traffic congestion clear at the time of the beginning of work in the morning, So researchers chose local area network of the main roads of the province of Diwaniyah, which is considered the most important in terms of traffic congestion, it was identified fuzzy numbers for
... Show MoreThe redevelopment of brownfields participate to sustainable urban development, it can make cities more valuable worth for community and more attractive for companies to settle down their projects through investment, and it can help to reduce expenditures for the construction of infrastructures and other services. Recent studies in brownfield redevelopment and investment have shown great interest in urban planning studies because of their negative effects on cities, they promoted sprawl, pollution, social and economic problems. There is a general agreement among researchers and experts that brownfield sites can be reused as green spaces, commerce centers, and residential projects. To promote sustainable urban development the role of the c
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It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna
... Show More
It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna
... Show MoreIn this paper, the series solutions of a non-linear delay integral equations are considered by a modified approach of homotopy analysis method (MAHAM). We split the function into infinite sums. The outcomes of the illustrated examples are included to confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the MAHAM. The exact solution can be obtained using special values of the convergence parameter.