The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Psychological aspects are a major influence and motivation factor in many cinematic and television works such as television series. There are many films that dealt with psychological issues through the personality affected by psychological projections and complexes that lead towards abnormal behavior and actions in most cases, so the researchers chose the title and the research problem was raised through the following question: What is the mechanism that fulfills a psychological role in the narrative film? The objectives of the research were to reveal the mechanism used to instill psychological contents in the feature film? As for the limits of the research, it was an intentional sample, and the researchers adopted the descriptive anal
... Show MoreBasically, media studies focused on the important role of the blogs in boosting the democratic process in the Arab States. Blogs also worked on creating an alternative media for the public that maintained freedom of expression. However, media studies ignored the status of the blogs in the social and cultural fields.
The current study tries to tackle the socio-cultural dimensions of the blogs by means of showing how the blogs construct the self. The researcher is going to conduct interviews with the bloggers. He will also carry out a semiotic analysis that may reveal the strategies used by the bloggers. Besides, he tries to identify the realistic and traditional frames in which the social relationships are buil
Sharif Mohieddin Haider worked on composing of musical compositions for the Oud different from the traditional forms known as (Peşrev, Sama'i, Longa… etc.), but they are not clear in building their musical form. This study tackles this issue by revealing the structure of the building of the musical form of these Musical compositions.
The importance of this research lies in that it provides an academic scientific study on the important subject of Musical composition forms and the way of constructing them. It helps players and students in the study of Arab music, if they want to write according to their musical form.
This research dealt with two topics in its theoretical framewo
... Show MoreThe study dealt with measuring the impact of the availability of each of the content elements of the interaction, electronic services, and information on the evaluation of the users of the government website for its effectiveness in terms of the site’s functions and for measuring the site’s ability to present the organization’s tasks to customer groups.
Authority is concerned with measuring the confidence of customers in the content of the site, and in the organization as a whole. Validity is related to measuring the effectiveness of employing the site’s content to achieve the goal of its creation and in communicating with customers. Availability It is for measuring the ease of use of the site. The relevance, which means
... Show MoreThe historical center's landscape suffers from neglect, despite their importance and broad capabilities in enhancing the cultural value of the historical center, as landscape includes many heterogeneous human and non-human components, material and immaterial, natural and manufactured, also different historical layers, ancient, modern and contemporary. Due to the difference in these components and layers, it has become difficult for the designer to deal with it. Therefore, the research was directed by following a methodology of actor-network theory as it deals with such a complex system and concerned with an advanced method to connect the various components of considering landscape as a ground that can include various elements and deal wi
... Show MoreChurning of employees from organizations is a serious problem. Turnover or churn of employees within an organization needs to be solved since it has negative impact on the organization. Manual detection of employee churn is quite difficult, so machine learning (ML) algorithms have been frequently used for employee churn detection as well as employee categorization according to turnover. Using Machine learning, only one study looks into the categorization of employees up to date. A novel multi-criterion decision-making approach (MCDM) coupled with DE-PARETO principle has been proposed to categorize employees. This is referred to as SNEC scheme. An AHP-TOPSIS DE-PARETO PRINCIPLE model (AHPTOPDE) has been designed that uses 2-stage MCDM s
... Show MoreThe use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode
... Show MoreIn this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.
Keywords: Using Markov chains
Cervical Uterine Cancer is a disease that explains the vulnerability in which women are in terms of reproductive health with an impact on occupational health and public health, even when in Mexico the prevalence rate is lower than the other member countries of the OECD, its impact on Human Development and Local Development shows the importance that the disease have in communities more than in cities where prevention policies through check-ups and medical examinations seem to curb the trend, but show the lack of opportunities and capacities of health centers in rural areas. To establish the reliability, validity, and correlations between the variables reported in the literature with respect to their weighting in a public hospital. A
... Show Moremodel is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales