The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract:
Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.
... Show More
The research issue and its importance concentrate on the importance of choosing and
preparing the kindergarten's teacher educationally ,psychologically and artistically ,and other
aspects because of their need for several skills such as the drawing skill for kindergarten
curriculums include a various artistic experiences and activities as well as for the drawing
importance for the child .And from this, the research goals raise from to prepare a test that
measures the drawing skill for kindergarten students and measure the drawing skill in all four
kindergarten students at the kindergarten department and recognize the differences level for
these students . In order to achieve the first goal in the research ,the resear
A digital elevation model (DEM) is a digital representation of ground surface topography or terrain. It can be represented as a raster (a grid of squares) and it is commonly estimated by utilizing remote sensing techniques, or from land surveying. In this research a 3D building of Baghdad university campus have been performed using DEM, where the easting, northing, and elevation of 400 locations have been obtained by field survey using global positioning system (GPS). The image of the investigated area has been extracted from QuickBird satellite sensor (with spatial resolution of 0.6 m). This image has been geo-referenced by selecting ground control points of the GPS. The rectification is running, using 1st order polynomial transformation.
... Show MoreRepresents the narrative and drama important sources in the serial drama television structure, and the advent of modern narrative techniques within the dramatic structure of the series of television directorial and processors that hired them, form a quantum leap in the level of the emergence of distinct forms of dramatic rely on narrative techniques according to the harmonic fabric is in control of making the form of art. dramatic and running events, but in order to discharge the need to adhere to the basics of drama and adapted within the mediator television capabilities, and narrative to make forms of television series to Atantzm in drift fixed because of the nature of governing structure formalism, this does not mean the existence of
... Show MoreThis paper reflects the evidence of the Islamic Development Bank's role in building human and institutional capacities in Member States and assisting governments in achieving economic development. The Bank's activities in the area of capacity development are an important part in following up the economic developments, And help governments to build and formulate effective policies and institutions to implement more effective macro policies leading to better economic outcomes. It is therefore helpful to help Member States increase their resources, modernize their banking systems, establish effective legal frameworks and improve Reports on macroeconomic and financial statistics. The Bank has faced many challenges and risks tha
... Show More
ABSTRUCT
The main aim of this research has been associated with the study of relationship between competitive intelligence and strategic risk, and to deduct their specific trends, which are interpreted as predicted by research hypotheses according to a review of literature including prior studies. The basic theme of these hypotheses is related to the probability that declining levels of strategic risk and competitive positions of industrial companies is dependent upon the growing capacity to stay ahead of competitors in the market.
A purposive non-random
... Show MoreAbstract:
One of the important things provided by fuzzy model is to identify the membership functions. In the fuzzy reliability applications with failure functions of the kind who cares that deals with positive variables .There are many types of membership functions studied by many researchers, including triangular membership function, trapezoidal membership function and bell-shaped membership function. In I research we used beta function. Based on this paper study classical method to obtain estimation fuzzy reliability function for both series and parallel systems.
This paper presents a hybrid software copy protection scheme, the scheme is applied to
prevent illegal copying of software by produce a license key which is unique and easy to
generate. This work employs the uniqueness of identification of hard disk in personal
computer which can get by software to create a license key after treated with SHA-1 one way
hash function. Two mean measures are used to evaluate the proposed method, complexity
and processing time, SHA-1 can insure the high complexity to deny the hackers for produce
unauthorized copies, many experiments have been executed using different sizes of software
to calculate the consuming time. The measures show high complexity and short execution
time for propos
Abstract:
Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.
It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an
... Show More