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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 20 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Sale Based on an Open Price – A Comparative Study
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The ultimate goal of any sale contract is to maximize the combined returns of the parties, knowing that these returns are not realized (in long-term contracts) except in the final stages of the contract. Therefore, this requires the parties to the contract to leave some elements open, including the price, because the adoption of a fixed price and inflexible will not be appropriate to meet their desires when contracting, especially with ignorance of matters beyond their will and may affect the market conditions, and the possibility of modifying the fixed price through The elimination is very limited, especially when the parties to the contract are equally in terms of economic strength. Hence, in order to respond to market uncertainties, the

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Impact of Twitter Sentiment Related to Bitcoin on Stock Price Returns
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Twitter is becoming an increasingly popular platform used by financial analysts to monitor and forecast financial markets. In this paper we investigate the impact of the sentiments expressed in Twitter on the subsequent market movement, specifically the bitcoin exchange rate. This study is divided into two phases, the first phase is sentiment analysis, and the second phase is correlation and regression. We analyzed tweets associated with the Bitcoin in order to determine if the user’s sentiment contained within those tweets reflects the exchange rate of the currency. The sentiment of users over a 2-month period is classified as having a positive or negative sentiment of the digital currency using the proposed CNN-LSTM

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the Islamic Development Bank Group on Economic Capacity Building
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This paper reflects the evidence of the Islamic Development Bank's role in building human and institutional capacities in Member States and assisting governments in achieving economic development. The Bank's activities in the area of ​​capacity development are an important part in following up the economic developments, And help governments to build and formulate effective policies and institutions to implement more effective macro policies leading to better economic outcomes. It is therefore helpful to help Member States increase their resources, modernize their banking systems, establish effective legal frameworks and improve Reports on macroeconomic and financial statistics. The Bank has faced many challenges and risks tha

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Narrative and dramatic television series in building: صادق كاظم عبد علي
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Represents the narrative and drama important sources in the serial drama television structure, and the advent of modern narrative techniques within the dramatic structure of the series of television directorial and processors that hired them, form a quantum leap in the level of the emergence of distinct forms of dramatic rely on narrative techniques according to the harmonic fabric is in control of making the form of art. dramatic and running events, but in order to discharge the need to adhere to the basics of drama and adapted within the mediator television capabilities, and narrative to make forms of television series to Atantzm in drift fixed because of the nature of governing structure formalism, this does not mean the existence of

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 23 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hazard Rate Estimation Using Varying Kernel Function for Censored Data Type I
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     In this research, several estimators concerning the estimation are introduced. These estimators are closely related to the hazard function by using one of the nonparametric methods namely the kernel function for censored data type with varying bandwidth and kernel boundary. Two types of bandwidth are used:  local bandwidth and global bandwidth. Moreover, four types of boundary kernel are used namely: Rectangle, Epanechnikov, Biquadratic and Triquadratic and the proposed function was employed with all kernel functions. Two different simulation techniques are also used for two experiments to compare these estimators. In most of the cases, the results have proved that the local bandwidth is the best for all the

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparative Study for Estimate Fractional Parameter of ARFIMA Model
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      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
USE OF MODIFIED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD TO ESTIMATE PARAMETERS OF THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL
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Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Apr 08 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Building a Management System to Control the Construction Claims in Iraq
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The paper deals with claims in construction projects in Iraq and studies their types, causes, impacts, resolution methods and then proposes a management system to control the impacts of claims. Two parts have been done to achieve the research objective (theoretical part and practical part). The findings showed that the main types of the claims are extra work claims, different site condition claims, delay claims and the main causes of the claims are variation of the orders, design errors and omission, delay in payments by owner, variation in quantities and scheduling errors. The claims have bad impacts on the cost by increasing (10% to 25%) and also on the duration of the project by increasing from (25% to 50%).The negotiation is the main

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of The Mental image Building Dimensions for The Company to Aattract Attention of Iraqi Consumers for local Products: Exploratory Study
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The survey showed sample opinions of officials in the general company for vegetable oils industry, and the statement of the order of the effect of these dimensions depending on the degree of importance, the questionnaire was used as a key tool in collecting data and information of the sample consisted of 30 officials, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, percentages, Spearman correlation coefficient and the global statistical analysis as a statistical methods that based on statistical program (SPSS), The researcher came to several conclusions, most important that there is high agreement by the respondents of the importance of the dimensions of building a mental picture of the company and to attract the consumer's attention, Also research

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using the Logistic Regression Model in Studding the Assistant Factors to Diagnose Bladder Cancer
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The cancer is one of the biggest health problems that facing the world . And  the bladder cancer has a special place among the most spread cancers in Arab countries specially in Iraq and Egypt(2) . It is one of the diseases which can be treated and cured if it is diagnosed early . This research is aimed at studying the assistant factors that diagnose bladder cancer such as (patient's age , gender , and other major complains of hematuria , burning or pain during urination and micturition disorders) and then determine which factors are the most effective in the possibility of diagnosing this disease by using the statistical model (logistic regression model) and depending on a random sample of (128) patients . After

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