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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the Islamic Development Bank Group on Economic Capacity Building
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This paper reflects the evidence of the Islamic Development Bank's role in building human and institutional capacities in Member States and assisting governments in achieving economic development. The Bank's activities in the area of ​​capacity development are an important part in following up the economic developments, And help governments to build and formulate effective policies and institutions to implement more effective macro policies leading to better economic outcomes. It is therefore helpful to help Member States increase their resources, modernize their banking systems, establish effective legal frameworks and improve Reports on macroeconomic and financial statistics. The Bank has faced many challenges and risks tha

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Narrative and dramatic television series in building: صادق كاظم عبد علي
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Represents the narrative and drama important sources in the serial drama television structure, and the advent of modern narrative techniques within the dramatic structure of the series of television directorial and processors that hired them, form a quantum leap in the level of the emergence of distinct forms of dramatic rely on narrative techniques according to the harmonic fabric is in control of making the form of art. dramatic and running events, but in order to discharge the need to adhere to the basics of drama and adapted within the mediator television capabilities, and narrative to make forms of television series to Atantzm in drift fixed because of the nature of governing structure formalism, this does not mean the existence of

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Exploring Important Factors in Predicting Heart Disease Based on Ensemble- Extra Feature Selection Approach
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Heart disease is a significant and impactful health condition that ranks as the leading cause of death in many countries. In order to aid physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases, clinical datasets are available for reference. However, with the rise of big data and medical datasets, it has become increasingly challenging for medical practitioners to accurately predict heart disease due to the abundance of unrelated and redundant features that hinder computational complexity and accuracy. As such, this study aims to identify the most discriminative features within high-dimensional datasets while minimizing complexity and improving accuracy through an Extra Tree feature selection based technique. The work study assesses the efficac

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 06 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
3D Building Reconstruction Using DEM and Mosaic Model
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A digital elevation model (DEM) is a digital representation of ground surface
topography or terrain. It can be represented as a raster (a grid of squares) and it is
commonly estimated by utilizing remote sensing techniques, or from land surveying.
In this research a 3D building of Baghdad university campus have been performed
using DEM, where the easting, northing, and elevation of 400 locations have been
obtained by field survey using global positioning system (GPS). The image of the
investigated area has been extracted from QuickBird satellite sensor (with spatial
resolution of 0.6 m). This image has been geo-referenced by selecting ground
control points of the GPS. The rectification is running, using 1st order

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic Risk's Variation as a function of Competitive Intelligence Investment - An applied research on some Iraqi's manufacturing Companies –
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ABSTRUCT

          The main aim of this research has been associated with the study of relationship between competitive intelligence and strategic risk, and to deduct their specific trends, which are interpreted as predicted by research hypotheses according to a review of literature including prior studies. The basic theme  of these hypotheses is related to the probability that declining levels of strategic risk and competitive positions of industrial companies is dependent upon the growing capacity to stay ahead of competitors in the market.

    A purposive non-random

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy logic in the estimate of reliability function for k - components systems
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Abstract:

One of the important things provided by fuzzy model is to identify the membership functions. In the fuzzy reliability applications with failure functions of the kind who cares that deals with positive variables .There are many types of membership functions studied by many researchers, including triangular membership function, trapezoidal membership function and bell-shaped membership function. In I research we used beta function. Based on this paper study classical method to obtain estimation fuzzy reliability function for both series and parallel systems.

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparative Study for Estimate Fractional Parameter of ARFIMA Model
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      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Estimation and Analysis of the Cobb-Duglas Production Function for the Rail Transport Sector in Iraq for the Period 1990-2016 using the ARDL Model)
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Abstract:

Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.

It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Software Protection by Combining Hash Function with Hardware Identifications
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This paper presents a hybrid software copy protection scheme, the scheme is applied to
prevent illegal copying of software by produce a license key which is unique and easy to
generate. This work employs the uniqueness of identification of hard disk in personal
computer which can get by software to create a license key after treated with SHA-1 one way
hash function. Two mean measures are used to evaluate the proposed method, complexity
and processing time, SHA-1 can insure the high complexity to deny the hackers for produce
unauthorized copies, many experiments have been executed using different sizes of software
to calculate the consuming time. The measures show high complexity and short execution
time for propos

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of The Mental image Building Dimensions for The Company to Aattract Attention of Iraqi Consumers for local Products: Exploratory Study
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The survey showed sample opinions of officials in the general company for vegetable oils industry, and the statement of the order of the effect of these dimensions depending on the degree of importance, the questionnaire was used as a key tool in collecting data and information of the sample consisted of 30 officials, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, percentages, Spearman correlation coefficient and the global statistical analysis as a statistical methods that based on statistical program (SPSS), The researcher came to several conclusions, most important that there is high agreement by the respondents of the importance of the dimensions of building a mental picture of the company and to attract the consumer's attention, Also research

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