The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Many production companies suffers from big losses because of high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.
The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.
I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the suitability of a patrol model in evaluating the financial performance of Iraqi banks. The financial reports of five Iraqi commercial banks were approved as a sample for research for the period from 2015 to 2020. The most common financial ratios were adopted for the purpose of measuring the five elements of the model, which are capital adequacy, profitability, credit risk, bankal efficiency and liquidity. The results showed the possibility of using the PATROL model in evaluating the performance of Iraqi banks, as it gave a realistic image of the reality of Iraqi banks in terms of high capital adequacy index and high liquidity, as well as fluctuation in profitability index, not to mention the prob
... Show MoreStatic loads exposing to mechanical components can cause cracks, which are lead to form stress concentration regions causing the failure of structure. Generally, from 80% to 90% of structure failure is due to initiation of the cracks. Therefore, it is necessary to repair the crack and reduce its effect on the structure where the effect of the crack is modelled as an additional flexibility to the structure. In the last few years, piezoelectric materials have been considered as one of the most favourable repairing techniques. The piezoelectric material converts the applied voltage on it to a bending moment to counter the bending moment caused by the external load on the beam at the crack location. In this study, the design of the piez
... Show MoreThe services provided by the municipal institutions of the basic things needed by the man in his daily life and the evolution of cities basically depends on these services and therefore has paid most of the world's attention to this vital facility and give him the biggest concern for the welfare of the citizens, as is the research problem that there is no program scrutiny to evaluate the performance of municipal institutions contribute to measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of the services provided and was based on research on the premise that the preparation of the existence of audit program to evaluate the performance of municipal institutions contribute to measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of services provided has reac
... Show MoreAnalysis the economic and financial phenomena and other requires to build the appropriate model, which represents the causal relations between factors. The operation building of the model depends on Imaging conditions and factors surrounding an in mathematical formula and the Researchers target to build that formula appropriately. Classical linear regression models are an important statistical tool, but used in a limited way, where is assumed that the relationship between the variables illustrations and response variables identifiable. To expand the representation of relationships between variables that represent the phenomenon under discussion we used Varying Coefficient Models
... Show MoreIn this research, the size strain plot method was used to estimate the particle size and lattice strain of CaTiO3 nanoparticles. The SSP method was developed to calculate new variables, namely stress, and strain energy, and the results were crystallite size (44.7181794 nm) lattice strain (0.001211), This method has been modified to calculate new variables such as stress and its value (184.3046308X10-3Mpa) and strain energy and its value (1.115833287X10-6 KJm-3).
This research aims at identifying the communicative habits and content reflections on the communication process, especially the young audience which is one of the main group for whom the announcements are made. Because young people face life with passion and aspiration making them respond to each effect used by the media in the design of the advertising using all the effective techniques, attractive methods for young children like depending on drama, technical tricks, music and logos easily to be remembered and responded to the desires of the young in their entertainment. This research also aims at identifying the impact of the internet as a channel of commercial advertising on the purchasing behavior of young people at the universities
... Show MoreBackground: Recent research indicates that persistent inflammatory responses may contribute to the rise of diabetic nephropathy (DN) and diabetic cardiovascular disease (DCVD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients (DM2). Numerous molecules associated with inflammation and angiogenesis have been implicated in the development and progression of DN and DCVD, respectively. Methods: The subjects were separated into five groups: healthy controls (n= 25), type 2 diabetes mellitus patients (n= 30), type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with nephropathy DN (n= 30), and type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with cardiovascular disease DCVD (n= 30). The blood levels of irisin, IL-8, HbA1C, urea, and creatinine were determined. Results: In current study there w
... Show MoreBackground: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major killer, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects almost one-quarter of the global population. The aim of the study is to Investigate the correlation between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), as well as the relationship between liver function enzymes and specific serum biomarkers in CRC patients with NAFLD. Methods: A case-control study involving 60 participants was conducted from February to August 2022. The patients with colon cancer were examined at Baghdad Medical City's Al-Amal Hospital for Radiation and Nuclear Medicine and Oncology Teaching Hospital, and blood samples were taken. Thirty patients with NAFLD who ha
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