The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The main purpose of the work is to apply a new method, so-called LTAM, which couples the Tamimi and Ansari iterative method (TAM) with the Laplace transform (LT). This method involves solving a problem of non-fatal disease spread in a society that is assumed to have a fixed size during the epidemic period. We apply the method to give an approximate analytic solution to the nonlinear system of the intended model. Moreover, the absolute error resulting from the numerical solutions and the ten iterations of LTAM approximations of the epidemic model, along with the maximum error remainder, were calculated by using MATHEMATICA® 11.3 program to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.
In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and studied to describe the spread of shigellosis disease in the population community. We consider it divided into four classes namely: the 1st class consists of unaware susceptible individuals, 2nd class of infected individuals, 3rd class of aware susceptible individuals and 4th class are people carrying bacteria. The solution existence, uniqueness as well as bounded-ness are discussed for the shigellosis model proposed. Also, the stability analysis has been conducted for all possible equilibrium points. Finally the proposed model is studied numerically to prove the analytic results and discussing the effects of the external sources for dis
... Show MoreThis work represents development and implementation a programmable model for evaluating pumping technique and spectroscopic properties of solid state laser, as well as designing and constructing a suitable software program to simulate this techniques . A study of a new approach for Diode Pumped Solid State Laser systems (DPSSL), to build the optimum path technology and to manufacture a new solid state laser gain medium. From this model the threshold input power, output power optimum transmission, slop efficiency and available power were predicted. different systems configuration of diode pumped solid state laser for side pumping, end pump method using different shape type (rod,slab,disk) three main parameters are (energy transfer efficie
... Show MoreThe theory of Pilgrims in the Magra is based on Dekru's view that the mgha is considered a pilgrim, and that the pilgrims are pilgrims
Tujia purely exposes the abstract temptation structure, and that the discharge of the Mfezouz Mfarouz is through factors
This theory tends to highlight the role of pilgrim function as a language
There is no preservation unless directed towards a particular outcome. Gemma can include morphine blindness
Or formulas that allow for the presentation of a pilgrimage to a writer in addition to the content of the news, and the guidance of the recipient
In one direction or another.
The orbital masses are one of these morphines and functional components that achieve function
The Togolese
Reducing the drag force has become one of the most important concerns in the automotive industry. This study concentrated on reducing drag through use of some external modifications of passive flow control, such as vortex generators, rear under body diffuser slices and a rear wing spoiler. The study was performed at inlet velocity (V=10,20,30,40 m/s) which correspond to an incompressible car model length Reynolds numbers (Re=2.62×105, 5.23×105, 7.85×105 and 10.46×105), respectively and we studied their effect on the drag force. We also present a theoretical study finite volume method (FVM) of solvi
Obtaining the computational models for the functioning of the brain gives us a chance to understand the brain functionality thoroughly. This would help the development of better treatments for neurological illnesses and disorders. We created a cortical model using Python language using the Brian simulator. The Brian simulator is specialized in simulating the neuronal connections and synaptic interconnections. The dynamic connection model has multiple parameters in order to ensure an accurate simulation (Bowman, 2016). We concentrated on the connection weights and studied their effect on the interactivity and connectivity of the cortical neurons in the same cortical layer and across multiple layers. As synchronization helps us to mea
... Show MoreOptimal control methods are used to get an optimal policy for harvesting renewable resources. In particular, we investigate a discretization fractional-order biological model, as well as its behavior through its fixed points, is analyzed. We also employ the maximal Pontryagin principle to obtain the optimal solutions. Finally, numerical results confirm our theoretical outcomes.