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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 28 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Special Exercises Using Rubber Ropes on The Development of Some Physical Abilities and Achievement in F56 Female Discuses Thrower Class
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Publication Date
Wed May 31 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Sustainable Development And Planning
Prediction of Formal Transformations in City Structure (Kufa as a Model) Based on the Cellular Automation Model and Markov Chains
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The research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Iv. International Rimar Congress Of Pure, Applied Sciences
A New Intrusion Detection Approach Based on RNA Encoding and K-Means Clustering Algorithm Using KDD-Cup99 Dataset
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Intrusion detection systems (IDS) are useful tools that help security administrators in the developing task to secure the network and alert in any possible harmful event. IDS can be classified either as misuse or anomaly, depending on the detection methodology. Where Misuse IDS can recognize the known attack based on their signatures, the main disadvantage of these systems is that they cannot detect new attacks. At the same time, the anomaly IDS depends on normal behaviour, where the main advantage of this system is its ability to discover new attacks. On the other hand, the main drawback of anomaly IDS is high false alarm rate results. Therefore, a hybrid IDS is a combination of misuse and anomaly and acts as a solution to overcome the dis

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Structures
Accelerating reliability analysis of deteriorated simply supported concrete beam with a newly developed approach: MCS, FORM and ANN
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Reliability analysis methods are used to evaluate the safety of reinforced concrete structures by evaluating the limit state function 𝑔(𝑋𝑖). For implicit limit state function and nonlinear analysis , an advanced reliability analysis methods are needed. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used in this case however, as the number of input variables increases, the time required for MCS also increases, making it a time consuming method especially for complex problems with implicit performance functions. In such cases, MCS-based FORM (First Order Reliability Method) and Artificial Neural Network-based FORM (ANN FORM) have been proposed as alternatives. However, it is important to note that both MCS-FORM and ANN-FORM can also be time-con

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Publication Date
Thu May 14 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
“The role of parametric approach in design highest climatic performance buildings: local housing design patterns as a sample”
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In light of increasing demand for energy consumption due to life complexity and its requirements, which reflected on architecture in type and size, Environmental challenges have emerged in the need to reduce emissions and power consumption within the construction sector. Which urged designers to improve the environmental performance of buildings by adopting new design approaches, Invest digital technology to facilitate design decision-making, in short time, effort and cost. Which doesn’t stop at the limits of acceptable efficiency, but extends to the level of (the highest performance), which doesn’t provide by traditional approaches that adopted by researchers and local institutions in their studies and architectural practices, limit

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Archives Of Plastic Surgery
Surgical outcomes of 14 consecutive bilateral cleft lip patients treated with a modified version of the Millard and Manchester methods
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Background Bilateral cleft lip deformity is much more difficult to correct than unilateral cleft lip deformity. The complexity of the deformity and the sensitive relationships between the arrangement of the muscles and the characteristics of the external lip necessitate a comprehensive preoperative plan for management. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the repair of bilateral cleft lip using the Byrd modification of the traditional Millard and Manchester methods. A key component of this repair technique is focused on reconstruction of the central tubercle.

Methods Fourteen patients with mean age of 5.7 months presented with bilateral cleft lip deformity and were operated on using a mod

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Perceptions of Iraqi EFL Pre-service Teachers of Sustainable Development
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Sustainable development (SD) is an improvement that meets present needs but jeopardizes the ability of new populations to do the same. It is vital to acquaint EFL students with the terminology and idiomatic expressions of this discipline. Nowadays, sustainable development and the environment have been prioritized in every aspect of life. Since culture and the teaching of Foreign language English cannot be separated, the English language becomes the mean of communication in health, economics, education, and politics. Thus, integrating sustainable development goals within language learning and teaching is very important. This descriptive quantitative study aims to investigate the perception of EFL pre-service teachers of sustainable develo

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
: Oil production, Depletion resources, Generations rights, Norway experience, Sustainable development.
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Abstract

      Oil is the most important natural resources in Iraq and represents the goal to others as well as Iraqi people. It is gift from God to all Iraqi people now and future. So we must maintain it and invest its revenue that achieve development in country and ensure the next generations' rights in it without external costs or negative externalities from extracted and invested it.

    The most problems that we attempt to solve by this research are the exhausted, environmental degradation and theft from next generation that produced with oil contracts between Iraq and foreign companies. From here was th

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards
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The current research seeks to Analyze third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards for academic year (2016-2017). To do this, a list of sustainable development standards that should be included in chemistry book was designed based on the previous studies. The first version of the list consisted of (50) sub-case divided into three standards (social, economic, and environmental) which was exposed to group of experts in teaching chemistry and teaching methods. The list has modified to (43) sub-case. The researcher followed the implicit and explicit meaning in his analysis: one for recording and repetition and the other for frequency. The result showed that third intermediate chemistry book has achieved (20)

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2024
Journal Name
Anbar Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF POTATO MINI TUBERS BY SUSTAINABLE CULTIVATION
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