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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Unit Price and Cost Estimation Equations through Items Percentage of Construction Works in a Desert Area
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This research will cover different aspects of estimating process of construction work in a desert area. The inherent difficulties which accompany the cost estimating of the construction works in desert environment in a developing country, will stem from the limited information available, resources scarcity, low level of skilled workers, the prevailing severe weather conditions and many others, which definitely don't provide a fair, reliable and accurate estimation. This study tries to present unit price to estimate the cost in preliminary phase of a project.  Estimations are supported by developing mathematical equations based on the historical data of maintenance, new construction of managerial and school projects.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian Tobit Quantile Regression Model Using Four Level Prior Distributions
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      In this research we discussed the parameter estimation and variable selection in Tobit quantile regression model in present of multicollinearity problem. We used elastic net technique as an important technique for dealing with both multicollinearity and variable selection. Depending on the data we proposed Bayesian Tobit hierarchical model with four level prior distributions . We assumed both tuning parameter are random variable and estimated them with the other unknown parameter in the model .Simulation study was used for explain the efficiency of the proposed method and then we compared our approach with (Alhamzwi 2014 & standard QR) .The result illustrated that our approach

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building the optimal portfolio for stock using multi-objective genetic algorithm - comparative analytical research in the Iraqi stock market
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Abstract:

The main objective of the research is to build an optimal investment portfolio of stocks’ listed at the Iraqi Stock Exchange after employing the multi-objective genetic algorithm within the period of time between 1/1/2006 and 1/6/2018 in the light of closing prices (43) companies after the completion of their data and met the conditions of the inspection, as the literature review has supported the diagnosis of the knowledge gap and the identification of deficiencies in the level of experimentation was the current direction of research was to reflect the aspects of the unseen and untreated by other researchers in particular, the missing data and non-reversed pieces the reality of trading at the level of compani

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Public Health Research & Development
Effect of Sponge Cylinder Exercises on The Rubber of Working Muscles to Perform Human Wheel Skill in Technical Gymnastics
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Pais estimator for the reliability function of the Pareto model of Type I failure
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In this paper an estimator of reliability function for the pareto dist. Of the first kind has been derived and then a simulation approach by Monte-Calro method was made to compare the Bayers estimator of reliability function and the maximum likelihood estimator for this function. It has been found that the Bayes. estimator was better than maximum likelihood estimator for all sample sizes using Integral mean square error(IMSE).

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Value at risk simulation in a fixed return stock portfolio using the Monte Carlo simulation model The concept of a bond portfolio
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This research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the dec

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Extent to Which the Internal audit function contributes to improving administrative performance: A field study in the Baghdad Health Department / Rusafa
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Abstract:

                The internal audit is considered the safety valve for senior management in all institutions. It aims to protect property, and raise the efficiency and effectiveness of the administrative performance, by following up on compliance with laws and instructions and the application of regulations in a way that increases the administrative performance of the department. The internal audit is possible to determine Weaknesses or imbalances in the administrative performance. To achieve this goal, an analytical descriptive methodology was adopted. The Baghdad Health Department / Al-Rosana was considered as society for this s

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Model of Intelligent Traffic Light System with Saving Power
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In this paper, a FPGA model of intelligent traffic light system with power saving was built. The intelligent traffic light system consists of sensors placed on the side's ends of the intersection to sense the presence or absence of vehicles. This system reduces the waiting time when the traffic light is red, through the transition from traffic light state to the other state, when the first state spends a lot of time, because there are no more vehicles. The proposed system is built using VHDL, simulated using Xilinx ISE 9.2i package, and implemented using Spartan-3A XC3S700A FPGA kit. Implementation and Simulation behavioral model results show that the proposed intelligent traffic light system model satisfies the specified operational req

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 12 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Social Science Humanity & Management Research
Sustainable Development in Organization: A Literature Review
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The current study aimed to review previous scholarly efforts to understand the concept of sustainable development, its practices, and its significance for public institutions. The study focuses on the dimensions of sustainable development—environmental, social, and economic—within public institutions. Sustainable development allows these institutions to balance environmental protection, economic growth, and social justice, ensuring the prosperity of both current and future generations. Furthermore, sustainable development is crucial for maintaining organizational performance. The review bridges knowledge gaps related to sustainable development and utilizes an analytical approach, surveying previous studies on the topic. The sele

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