The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this article our goal is mixing ARMA models with EGARCH models and composing a mixed model ARMA(R,M)-EGARCH(Q,P) with two steps, the first step includes modeling the data series by using EGARCH model alone interspersed with steps of detecting the heteroscedasticity effect and estimating the model's parameters and check the adequacy of the model. Also we are predicting the conditional variance and verifying it's convergence to the unconditional variance value. The second step includes mixing ARMA with EGARCH and using the mixed (composite) model in modeling time series data and predict future values then asses the prediction ability of the proposed model by using prediction error criterions.
The transition states that Iraq economy lived it after 2003, and the change in tools used by monetary policy based on C.B.I law 56 in 2004, under the especially situation for the economy (structural imbalances and the weakness of banking & financial sector).
The monetary policy adopted the inflation targeting policy to mantain the monetary stability in the economy and considered it an incubator for future growth. It used the exchange rate as a nominal anchor to achieve the goal (because the rentier of economy, finance Shallowness & separation between real sector and finance sector, all this cause the normal channel to transfer the effect of monetary policy (interest rate) ineffective.
... Show Moreان دراسة الدين العام في اقتصاد ريعي شديد الارتباط بسوق خارجية شديدة التقلب يعد من الدراسات الحساسة كونها تضع امام الباحثين القيود المالية التي سيتكبل بها اقتصاد ضعيف قليل التنوع يعتمد على سوق الطاقة مما يفقد حالة الاستدامة المالية وتفقد الدولة القدرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها المالية ، ان الحدود الامنة للدين العام يجب ان تكون بنسبة لا تتجاوز 60% من الناتج المحلي الاجمالي حسب اتفاقية ماسترخت الخاصة بمجلس الاتحا
... Show MoreSolid dispersion is an attractive tool of pharmaceutical technology used to improve the physical properties of drugs. Among these properties is to enhance the solubility of the drugs.
Rebamipide is a poorly soluble drug of class IV of biopharmaceutical classification system (BCS).
Rebamipide is used as potent antiulcer, mucoprotective drug, by stimulating the generation of prostoglandine enhanced mucosal protection.
Rebamipide was formulated as a solid dispersion using different polymers such as pluronic F-127, PEG6000, PVP K30, and TPGS by using different preparation methods solvent evaporation, fusion, and kneading methods.
It was seen that rebamipide was successfully dispersed in a homogenous solid dispersion matrix by sol
To demonstrate the effect of changing cavity length for FM mode locked on pulse parameters and make comparison for both dispersion regime , a plot for each pulse parameter as Lr function are presented for normal and anomalous dispersion regimes . The analysis is based on the theoretical study and the results of numerical simulation using MATLAB. The effect of both normal and anomalous dispersion regimes on output pulses is investigate Fiber length effects on pulse parameters are investigated by driving the modulator into different values. A numerical solution for model equations using fourth-fifth order, Runge-Kutta method is performed through MATLAB 7.0 program. Fiber length effect on pulse parameters is investigated by driving th
... Show MoreForecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
Estimation stage is one of most important in process of selecting and identification for fit model, this model gives a best results if the good methods of estimation are depended on, one of those methods is Bayes method for estimation the parameters, it puts an assumption that parameter have a distribution.
This paper studies the robustness of estimators of empirical Bayes to know the properties of those estimators.
In this paper, a simple medical image compression technique is proposed, that based on utilizing the residual of autoregressive model (AR) along with bit-plane slicing (BPS) to exploit the spatial redundancy efficiently. The results showed that the compression performance of the proposed techniques is improved about twice on average compared to the traditional autoregressive, along with preserving the image quality due to considering the significant layers only of high image contribution effects.
An experimental work has been done to study the major factors that affect the axial dispersion of some hydrocarbons during liquid-liquid miscible displacement. Kerosene and gas oil are used as displacing phase while seven liquid hydrocarbons of high purity represent the displaced phase, three of the liquids are aromatics and the rest are of paraffinic base. In conducting the experiments, two packed beds of different porosity and permeability are used as porous media.
The results showed that the displacement process is not a piston flow, breakthrough of displacing fluids are shown before one pore volume has been injected. The processes are stable with no evidence of viscous fingering.
Dispersion model as a
... Show MoreExperiments were conducted to study axial liquid dispersion coefficient in slurry bubble column of 0.15 m inside diameter and 1.6 m height using perforated plate gas distributor of 54 holes of a size equal to 1 mm diameter and with a 0.24 free area of holes to the cross sectional area of the column. The three phase system consists of air, water and PVC used as the solid phase. The effect of solid loading (0, 30 and 60 kg/m3) and solid diameter (0.7, 1.5 and 3 mm) on the axial liquid dispersion coefficient at different axial location (25, 50 and 75 cm) and superficial gas velocity covered homogeneous-heterogeneous flow regime (1-10 cm/s) were studied in the present work. The results show that the axial liquid dispersion coeffic
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