The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The Iraqi construction industry suffers from many issues that lead to many design errors, clashes, delays and cost overruns. Therefore, applying constructability will prevent these issues from happening, as it has proven its positive effect in different projects around the world. The goal of this paper is to use building information modelling (BIM) to assess the constructability, provide the opportunities for the project stakeholders to choose the best constructable design alternative and find the affection of applying constructability on project cost. The practical side of this research consists of two parts: in the first part, 37 factors are collected from the literature review as factors that effect on constructability. After tha
... Show Moreتعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفره
... Show MoreIn recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may
... Show MoreThis research mainly aims to analyze local development strategy in Baghdad Governance, build the Strategic Model based on the study area's spatial interaction, and achieve the Trinity of Excellence based on the global model of excellence.
This research applied SWOT strategic analysis for the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment and opportunities and threats of the external environment for the provincial council. In conclusion, the research specifies appropriate alternatives and choosing the best in line with the reality of the Baghdad Provincial Council. Also, the strategic goals in the national plan and the spatial interaction of the development goals,
... Show MoreWe are used Bayes estimators for unknown scale parameter when shape Parameter is known of Erlang distribution. Assuming different informative priors for unknown scale parameter. We derived The posterior density with posterior mean and posterior variance using different informative priors for unknown scale parameter which are the inverse exponential distribution, the inverse chi-square distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, and the standard Levy distribution as prior. And we derived Bayes estimators based on the general entropy loss function (GELF) is used the Simulation method to obtain the results. we generated different cases for the parameters of the Erlang model, for different sample sizes. The estimates have been comp
... Show MoreWorldwide, enormous amounts of waste cause major environmental issues, including scrap tires and plastic, and large waste, a consequence of the demolition of buildings, including crushed concrete, crushed clay bricks, and crushed thermo-stone. From that point, it’s possible to consider that the recycling processes for these materials and using them in the manufacturing field will reduce the adverse effects on the environment of these wastes and the consumption of natural resources. Sustainable concrete blocks can be considered as one of the products produced by using these materials as partial volume replacement of the coarse, fine aggregate, or cement content, considering their dry density, workability, absorption, compressive st
... Show MoreWorldwide, enormous amounts of waste cause major environmental issues, including scrap tires and plastic, and large waste, a consequence of the demolition of buildings, including crushed concrete, crushed clay bricks, and crushed thermo-stone. From that point, it’s possible to consider that the recycling processes for these materials and using them in the manufacturing field will reduce the adverse effects on the environment of these wastes and the consumption of natural resources. Sustainable concrete blocks can be considered as one of the products produced by using these materials as partial volume replacement of the coarse, fine aggregate, or cement content, considering their dry density, workability, absorption, co
... Show MoreRecently times, industrial development has increased, including plastic industries, and since plastic has a very long analytical life, it will cause environmental pollution. Therefore studies have resorted to reusing recycled plastic waste (sustainable plastic) to produce environmentally friendly concrete (green concrete). In this research, some studies were reviewed and then summarized into several things, including the percentage of plastic replacement from the aggregate and the effect of this percentage on the fresh properties of concrete, such as the workability and the effect of plastic waste on the hardening properties of concrete such as dry density, compressive, tensile and flexural strength.
The current study presents the cellar spiders genus Nita Huber & El-Hennawy, 2007 (Araneae, Pholcidae) as the first record for Iraq spider fauna, this genus represented by the species Nita elsaff Huber & El-Hennawy, 2007 were identified based on morphological characteristics and DNA sequence data. A short morphological description is also presented for cellar spiders listed in Iraq; including this species in addition to Artema Atlanta Walckenaer, 1837.