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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
NEW ROBUST ESTIMATOR OF CHANGE POINT IN SEGMENTED REGRESSION MODEL FOR BED-LOAD OF RIVERS
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Mathematical Model, Simulation and Scale up of Batch Reactor Used in Oxidative Desulfurization of Kerosene
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   In this paper, a mathematical model for the oxidative desulfurization of kerosene had been developed. The mathematical model and simulation process is a very important process due to it provides a better understanding of a real process. The mathematical model in this study was based on experimental results which were taken from literature to calculate the optimal kinetic parameters where simulation and optimization were conducted using gPROMS software. The optimal kinetic parameters were Activation energy 18.63958 kJ/mol, Pre-exponential factor  2201.34 (wt)-0.76636. min-1  and the reaction order 1.76636. These optimal kinetic parameters were used to find the optimal reaction conditions which

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Geological Model for Jeribe/Euphrates Formation, Tertiary Reservoir in Qaiyarah Oil Field, North of Iraq
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Visualization of subsurface geology is mainly considered as the framework of the required structure to provide distribution of petrophysical properties. The geological model helps to understand the behavior of the fluid flow in the porous media that is affected by heterogeneity of the reservoir and helps in calculating the initial oil in place as well as selecting accurate new well location. In this study, a geological model is built for Qaiyarah field, tertiary reservoir, relying on well data from 48 wells, including the location of wells, formation tops and contour map. The structural model is constructed for the tertiary reservoir, which is an asymmetrical anticline consisting of two domes separated by a saddle. It is found that

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Some of Estimation methods of Stress-Strength Model: R = P(Y < X < Z)
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In this study, the stress-strength model R = P(Y < X < Z)  is discussed as an important parts of reliability system by assuming that the random variables follow Invers Rayleigh Distribution. Some traditional estimation methods are used    to estimate the parameters  namely; Maximum Likelihood, Moment method, and Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased estimator and Shrinkage estimator using three types of shrinkage weight factors. As well as, Monte Carlo simulation are used to compare the estimation methods based on mean squared error criteria.  

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Publication Date
Tue May 23 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Sensors
On-Board Digital Twin Based on Impedance and Model Predictive Control for Aerial Robot Grasping
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Aerial manipulation of objects has a number of advantages as it is not limited by the morphology of the terrain. One of the main problems of the aerial payload process is the lack of real-time prediction of the interaction between the gripper of the aerial robot and the payload. This paper introduces a digital twin (DT) approach based on impedance control of the aerial payload transmission process. The impedance control technique is implemented to develop the target impedance based on emerging the mass of the payload and the model of the gripper fingers. Tracking the position of the interactional point between the fingers of gripper and payload, inside the impedance control, is achieved using model predictive control (MPD) approach.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Gray-Scale Image Brightness/Contrast Enhancement with Multi-Model Histogram linear Contrast Stretching (MMHLCS) method
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Gray-Scale Image Brightness/Contrast Enhancement with Multi-Model
Histogram linear Contrast Stretching (MMHLCS) method

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Differential Equations
Dynamical Behaviours of Stage-Structured Fractional-Order Prey-Predator Model with Crowley-Martin Functional Response
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In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of the stage-structure prey-predator fractional-order derivative system is considered and discussed. In this model, the Crowley–Martin functional response describes the interaction between mature preys with a predator.  e existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and the boundedness of solutions are proved. All possible equilibrium points of this system are investigated.  e su‰cient conditions of local stability of equilibrium points for the considered system are determined. Finally, numerical simulation results are carried out to con‹rm the theoretical results.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Particle-Hole State Density Calculations with Non-Equidistant Spacing Model: II. Pairing and Exact Treatment
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In an earlier paper, the basic analytical formula for particle-hole nuclear state densities was derived for non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) approach. In this paper, an extension of the former equation was made to include pairing. Also a suggestion was made to derive the exact formula for the particle-hole state densities that depends exactly on Fermi energy and nuclear binding energies. The results indicated that the effects of pairing reduce the state density values, with similar dependence in the ESM system but with less strength. The results of the suggested exact formula indicated some modification from earlier non-ESM approximate treatment, on the cost of more calculation time

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 26 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Statistical Study of Nuclear Energy Levels for 6 Particles in The Nuclear N82 Model Space
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 25 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Dynamical Study of An SIR Epidemic Model With Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Regress of Treatment
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   In this research, dynamical study of an SIR epidemical model with nonlinear direct incidence rate (Beddington-De Angelis ) type, and regress of treatment investigated .An  analytical study  to the model shows that there are two equilibrium points appear, the discussed successfully with sufficient condition, the existence of local bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation was analyzed, finally numerical simulations are done to explain the analytic studies.

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