The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Background: Vitamin D improves innate immunity by enhancing the expression of antimicrobial peptides. The antimicrobial action of cathelicidin is widespread and effective against cariogenic bacteria. This research aimed to investigate the effect of vitamin D deficiency on the level of salivary cathelicidin concerning dental caries experience.
Subjects and Methods: A case-control study was carried out, and the sample was composed of 80 females; the study group involved 40 females with a serum vitamin D concentration of less than 10 ng/ml. In addition to the control group involving 40 females wh
... Show MoreIn hemodialysis patients, pain associated with needle insertion into an arteriovenous fistula is a physical and psychological problem. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of pre‐puncture application of an ice pack, EMLA cream, or lidocaine spray to reduce pain associated with access puncture.
This was a multicenter study done in nine hemodialysis centers in Iraq. The study utilized a randomized, parallel‐group design, in which patients being dialyzed using an arteriovenous access were allocated into one of four groups. Access puncture was preceded by nothing (contr
The study focuses on the problem that Iraq is approaching an increasing rate of literacy;the available data refers to a rate of (18% -19%). In addition to the fact that the generalcurrent role of the programs directed to literacy is not actually effective enough to limit the expansion of this rate.
The importance of this study highlights the fact that the Iraqi universities are an important tributary among the tributaries of human development, especially in spreading the education of the voluntary work in literacy field and confirming the connection between the students and their society and their role in solving one of the prominent challenges that face the development, i.e., literacy.
<
... Show Morethe rationalization of energy consumption Require awareness in the possibility of bridging the local need severe shortage of electric power for daily requirements. The research aims to show that the engineers of various specializations and architects, including in particular can have an active role in about the importance of the role of energy in human life, and it’s best utilization without extravagance (which our religion forbids it). Here lies the problem of the research to find possible means and alternative methods to reduce (rationalization) electrical energy consumption in hot dry areas in general which need large energy for air conditioning because of the crucial climate of these regions that making access to the area o
... Show MoreA theoretical study was done in this work for Fatigue , Fatigue Crack Growth (FCG) and stress factor intensity range for steel . It also includes Generalized Paris Equation and the fulfillment of his equation which promises that there is a relation between parameters C and n . Usig Simple Paris Equation through which we concluded the practical values of C and n and compared them with the theoretical values which have been concluded by Generalized Paris Equation . The value of da/dN and ∆K for every material and sample were concluded and compared with the data which was used in
... Show MoreScheduling problems have been treated as single criterion problems until recently. Many of these problems are computationally hard to solve three as single criterion problems. However, there is a need to consider multiple criteria in a real life scheduling problem in general. In this paper, we study the problem of scheduling jobs on a single machine to minimize total tardiness subject to maximum earliness or tardiness for each job. And we give algorithm (ETST) to solve the first problem (p1) and algorithm (TEST) to solve the second problem (p2) to find an efficient solution.
Theresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
... Show MoreThis paper deals with two preys and stage-structured predator model with anti-predator behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the appearance of local and Hopf bifurcation of the system have been achieved, and it’s observed that near the free predator, the free second prey and the free first prey equilibrium points there are transcritical or pitchfork and no saddle node. While near the coexistence equilibrium point there is transcritical, pitchfork and saddle node bifurcation. For the Hopf bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point have been studied. Further, numerical analysis has been used to validate the main results.