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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Theoretical And Applied Information Technology (jatit)
Factors and Model for Sensitive Data Management and Protection in Information Systems’ Decision of Cloud Environment
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Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology is a peer-reviewed electronic research papers & review papers journal with aim of promoting and publishing original high quality research dealing with theoretical and scientific aspects in all disciplines of IT (Informaiton Technology

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of the nuclear structure of halo nuclei 23O and 24F using the two-body model
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The nuclear structure included the matter, proton and neutron densities of the ground state, the nuclear root-mean-square (rms) radii and elastic form factors of one neutron 23O and 24F halo nuclei have been studied by the two body model of  within the harmonic oscillator (HO) and Woods-Saxon (WS) radial wave functions. The calculated results show that the two body model within the HO and WS radial wave functions succeed in reproducing neutron halo in these exotic nuclei. Moreover, the Glauber model at high energy has been used to calculated the rms radii and reaction cross section of these nuclei.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Robust Circular S and Circular Least Squares Estimators for Circular Regression Model using Simulation
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In this paper, the Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to compare the robust circular S estimator with the circular Least squares method in the case of no outlier data and in the case of the presence of an outlier in the data through two trends, the first is contaminant with high inflection points that represents contaminant in the circular independent variable, and the second the contaminant in the vertical variable that represents the circular dependent variable using three comparison criteria, the median standard error (Median SE), the median of the mean squares of error (Median MSE), and the median of the mean cosines of the circular residuals (Median A(k)). It was concluded that the method of least squares is better than the

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 15 2016
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Applied Sciences, Engineering And Technology
Development of Measurement Scale for Hypothesized Conceptual Model of E-service Quality and User Satisfaction Relationship
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Some Suggested Estimators Based on Differencing Technique in the Partial Linear Model Using Simulation
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In this paper new methods were presented based on technique of differences which is the difference- based modified jackknifed generalized ridge regression estimator(DMJGR) and difference-based generalized  jackknifed ridge regression estimator(DGJR), in estimating the parameters of linear part of the partially linear model. As for the nonlinear part represented by the nonparametric function, it was estimated using Nadaraya Watson smoother. The partially linear model was compared using these proposed methods with other estimators based on differencing technique through the MSE comparison criterion in simulation study.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
On Bayesian Estimation of System Reliability in Stress – Strength Model Based on Generalized Inverse Rayleigh Distribution
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Abstract<p>The parameter and system reliability in stress-strength model are estimated in this paper when the system contains several parallel components that have strengths subjects to common stress in case when the stress and strengths follow Generalized Inverse Rayleigh distribution by using different Bayesian estimation methods. Monte Carlo simulation introduced to compare among the proposal methods based on the Mean squared Error criteria.</p>
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 24 2020
Journal Name
Modeling Earth Systems And Environment
Assessment of reservoir properties and Buckles model for Rumaila Formation in Ahdeb oil field, Central Iraq
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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Geoenergy Science And Engineering
Empirical model for predicting slug-pseudo slug and slug-churn transitions of upward air/water flow
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A pseudo-slug flow is a type of intermittent flow characterized by short, frothy, chaotic slugs that have a structure velocity lower than the mixture velocity and are not fully formed. It is essential to accurately estimate the transition from conventional slug (SL) flow to pseudo-slug (PSL) flow, and from SL to churn (CH), by precisely predicting the pressure losses. Recent research has showed that PSL and CH flows comprise a significant portion of the conventional flow pattern maps. This is particularly true in wellbores and pipelines with highly deviated large-diameter gas-condensate wellbores and pipelines. Several theoretical and experimental works studied the behavior of PSL and CH flows; however, few models have been suggested to pre

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 20 2012
Journal Name
North Africa Technical Conference And Exhibition
Comprehensive Model for Flash Calculations of Heavy Oils Using the Soave - Redlich - Kwong Equation of State
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Abstract<p>One of the main techniques to achieve phase behavior calculations of reservoir fluids is the equation of state. Soave - Redlich - Kwong equation of state can then be used to predict the phase behavior of the petroleum fluids by treating it as a multi-components system of pure and pseudo-components. The use of Soave – Redlich – Kwon equation of state is popular in the calculations of petroleum engineering therefore many researchers used it to perform phase behavior analysis for reservoir fluids (Wang and Orr (2000), Ertekin and Obut (2003), Hasan (2004) and Haghtalab (2011))</p><p>This paper presents a new flash model for reservoir fluids in gas – oil se</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Local Bifurcation of an Eco-Epidemiological Model in the Presence of Stage- Structured with Refuge
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In this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point

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