The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Recently Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have frequently been used for optimizing the solution of estimation problems. One of the main advantages of using these techniques is that they require no knowledge or gradient information about the response surface. The poor behavior of genetic algorithms in some problems, sometimes attributed to design operators, has led to the development of other types of algorithms. One such class of these algorithms is compact Genetic Algorithm (cGA), it dramatically reduces the number of bits reqyuired to store the poulation and has a faster convergence speed. In this paper compact Genetic Algorithm is used to optimize the maximum likelihood estimator of the first order moving avergae model MA(1). Simulation results
... Show MoreIn this study, nano TiO2 was prepared with titanium isopropoxide (TTIP) as a resource to titanium oxide. The catalyst was synthesized using phosphotungstic acid (PTA) and, stearyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (STAB) was used as the structure-directing material. Characterization of the product was done by the X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescent spectroscopy (XRF), nitrogen adsorption/desorption measurements, Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra, were used to characterize the calcined TiO2 nanoparticles by STAB and PWA. The TiO2 nanomaterials were prepared in three crystalline forms (amorphous, anatase, anatase-rutile). The results showed that the nanoparticles of anatase TiO2 have good cata
... Show MoreIn this study, oxidative desulfurization of dibenzothiophene (DBT) with H2O2 as an oxidant was studied, whereas the catalyst used was zirconium oxide supported on Activated carbon (AC). Zirconium oxide (ZrO2) was impregnated over prepared activated carbon (AC) and characterized by various techniques such as XRD, FTIR, BET, SEM, and EDX. This composite was used as a heterogeneous catalyst for oxidation desulfurization of simulated oil. The results of this study showed that ZrO2/AC composite exhibited significant catalytic activity and stability, effectively lowering sulfur content under mild conditions. Factors such as reaction temperature (30, 40, 50, 60°C), time (5, 10, 15,20,30,60, 80 100 min), catalyst dose (0.3, 0.5,
... Show MoreCircular data (circular sightings) are periodic data and are measured on the unit's circle by radian or grades. They are fundamentally different from those linear data compatible with the mathematical representation of the usual linear regression model due to their cyclical nature. Circular data originate in a wide variety of fields of scientific, medical, economic and social life. One of the most important statistical methods that represents this data, and there are several methods of estimating angular regression, including teachers and non-educationalists, so the letter included the use of three models of angular regression, two of which are teaching models and one of which is a model of educators. ) (DM) (MLE) and circular shrinkage mod
... Show MoreImaging by Ultrasound (US) is an accurate and useful modality for the assessment of gestational age (GA), estimation fetal weight, and monitoring the fetal growth during pregnancy, is a routine part of prenatal care, and that can greatly impact obstetric management. Estimation of GA is important in obstetric care, making appropriate management decisions requires accurate appraisal of GA. Accurate GA estimation may assist obstetricians in appropriately counseling women who are at risk of a preterm delivery about likely neonatal outcomes, and it is essential in the evaluation of the fetal growth and detection of intrauterine growth restriction. There are many formulas are used to estimate fetal GA in the world, but it's not specify fo
... Show MoreThe issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the proposed LAD-Atan estimator
... Show MoreTwo dimensional meso-scale concrete modeling was used in finite element analysis of plain concrete beam subjected to bending. The plane stress 4-noded quadrilateral elements were utilized to model coarse aggregate, cement mortar. The effect of aggregate fraction distribution, and pores percent of the total area – resulting from air voids entrapped in concrete during placement on the behavior of plain concrete beam in flexural was detected. Aggregate size fractions were randomly distributed across the profile area of the beam. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was employed to treat the discontinuities problems result from double phases of concrete and cracking that faced during the finite element analysis of concrete beam. Crac
... Show MoreSocial reform is the main pillar of the organization of societies. Therefore, all religions and theories were directed to focus on this aspect as the most important element for the development of economic and cultural development. In addition to the analysis and application of the Islamic Sharia, he did not present a theory, but offered real solutions and remedies to the crises in our Arab and Islamic societies alike, despite the criticism directed at him. Z his opinions.<
... Show MoreOperated Alandziahih "drift theory" as a science talk in most of the cash and technical studies in the early twentieth century, making him and the sciences, arts and culture both fields of experiences, in an attempt to explore the institutions that theory, a number of laws which took control in the internal structures of those acts, resulting in for those institutions to be actively contribute their ideas to guide the pace on the right track. And thus lay the foundations of this theory, which was a big affair in the early twentieth century and still vigorous pace to this day, particularly their applications in various fields of the arts.Although each type of Arts, both in the composition or the theater or means of communication, took joi
... Show MoreIn this study, nano TiO2 was prepared with titanium isopropoxide (TTIP) as a resource to titanium oxide. The catalyst was synthesized using phosphotungstic acid (PTA) and, stearyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (STAB) was used as the structure-directing material. Characterization of the product was done by the X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescent spectroscopy (XRF), nitrogen adsorption/desorption measurements, Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra, were used to characterize the calcined TiO2 nanoparticles by STAB and PWA. The TiO2 nanomaterials were prepared in three crystalline forms (amorphous, anatase, anatase-rutile). The results showed that the
... Show More