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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 10 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
THE IMPACT OF DISEASE AND HARVESTING ON THE DYNAMICAL BEHAVIOR OF PREY PREDATOR MODEL
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In this paper, a harvested prey-predator model involving infectious disease in prey is considered. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are carried out. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that the existence of disease and harvesting can give rise to multiple attractors, including chaos, with variations in critical parameters.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Mathematical Model for BOD in Waste Water Discharges from Al Dora Refinery in Baghdad
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This research consists of two parts, the first part concern with analyzing the collected data of BOD and COD values in discharge waste water from Al-Dora refinery during 2010 to find the relationship between these two variables The results indicates that there is a high correlation between BOD and COD when using a natural logarithm model (0.86 ln(COD)) with correlation coefficient of 0.98. This relationship is useful in predicting the BOD value using the COD value. The second part includes analyzing collected data from the same site in order to find a relationsip between BOD and other parameters COD, Phenol(phe), Temperature(T), Oil, Sulphat(SO4),pH and Total dissolved solids( TDS) discharged from the refinery. The results indicated that th

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Pushing towards ehealth for iraqi hypertensives: an integrated class association rules into SECI model
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<span lang="EN-GB">This paper highlights the barriers that have led to a delay in the implementation of E-Health services in Iraq. A new framework is proposed to improve the E-Health sector using a SECI model which describes how explicit and tacit knowledge is generated, transferred, and recreated in organizations through main stages (socialization, externalization, combination and internalization). Class association rules (CARs) is integrated to mine the SECI model by extracting related rules which correspond to the medical advice. The proposed framework (SECICAR) can be done through a web portal to assemble healthcare professionals, patients in one environment. SECICAR will be applied to the hypertension community to show th

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analytical Study Compared Between Poisson and Poisson Hierarchical Model and Applied in Healthy Field
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Through this research, We have tried to evaluate the health programs and their effectiveness in improving the health situation through a study of the health institutions reality in Baghdad to identify the main reasons that affect the increase in maternal mortality by using two regression models, "Poisson's Regression Model" and "Hierarchical Poisson's Regression Model". And the study of that indicator (deaths) was through a comparison between the estimation methods of the used models. The "Maximum Likelihood" method was used to estimate the "Poisson's Regression Model"; whereas the "Full Maximum Likelihood" method were used for the "Hierarchical Poisson's Regression Model

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of the Accuracy of Digital Elevation Model Produced from Different Open Source Data
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This study aims to estimate the accuracy of digital elevation models (DEM) which are created with exploitation of open source Google Earth data and comparing with the widely available DEM datasets, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), version 3, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), version 2. The GPS technique is used in this study to produce digital elevation raster with a high level of accuracy, as reference raster, compared to the DEM datasets. Baghdad University, Al Jadriya campus, is selected as a study area. Besides, 151 reference points were created within the study area to evaluate the results based on the values of RMS.Furthermore, th

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Salinity mapping model and brine chemistry of Mishrif reservoir in Basrah oilfields, Southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Eliminate harmful side – effects of Controls System by designing Activity – Based Responsibility Accounting model
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This research has come out with that, function-based responsibility accounting system has harmful side – effects preventing it of achieving its controlling objective, that is, goal congruence, which are due to its un integrated measures, its focus on measuring measurable behaviors while neglecting behaviors that are hardly measured, and its dependence on standard operating procedures.

In addition, the system hypotheses and measures are designed to fit previous business environment, not the current environment.

The research has also concluded that the suggestive model, that is, activity-based responsibility accounting is designed to get ride of harmful side – effects of functi

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 11 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Research And Studies
Distribution of Petrophysical Properties Based on Conceptual Facies Model, Mishrif Reservoir/South of Iraq
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A 3D geological model is an essential step to reveal reservoir heterogeneity and reservoir properties distribution. In the present study, a three-dimensional geological model for the Mishrif reservoir was built based on data obtained from seven wells and core data. The methodology includes building a 3D grid and populating it with petrophysical properties such as (facies, porosity, water saturation, and net to gross ratio). The structural model was built based on a base contour map obtained from 2D seismic interpretation along with well tops from seven wells. A simple grid method was used to build the structural framework with 234x278x91 grid cells in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively, with lengths equal to 150 meters. The to

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Statistical Applications In Genetics And Molecular Biology
Mixture model-based association analysis with case-control data in genome wide association studies
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Abstract<p>Multilocus haplotype analysis of candidate variants with genome wide association studies (GWAS) data may provide evidence of association with disease, even when the individual loci themselves do not. Unfortunately, when a large number of candidate variants are investigated, identifying risk haplotypes can be very difficult. To meet the challenge, a number of approaches have been put forward in recent years. However, most of them are not directly linked to the disease-penetrances of haplotypes and thus may not be efficient. To fill this gap, we propose a mixture model-based approach for detecting risk haplotypes. Under the mixture model, haplotypes are clustered directly according to their estimated d</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
PHYSICAL MODEL OF KEROSENE PLUME MIGRATION IN AN UNSATURATED ZONE OF THE SANDY SOIL
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Physical model tests were simulated non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) spill in two-dimensional
domain above the water table. Four laboratory experiments were carried out in the sand-filled
tank. The evolution of the plume was observed through the transparent side of this tank and the
contaminant front was traced at appropriate intervals. The materials used in these experiments
were Al-Najaf sand as a porous medium and kerosene as contaminant.
The results of the experiments showed that after kerosene spreading comes to a halt (ceased) in
the homogeneous sand, the bulk of this contaminant is contained within a pancake-shaped lens
situated on top of the capillary fringe.

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