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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 28 2022
Journal Name
جامعة بغداد/ كلية التربية للعلوم الصرفة - ابن الهيثم
فاعلية استراتيجيات تدريسية مقترحة على وفق انموذج بناء المعرفة المشتركة في تحصيل طلاب الصف الثاني المتوسط وكفاءتهم الرياضية
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Estimation Methods Of GM(1,1) Model With Missing Data and Practical Application
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This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt  properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1)  is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method  (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 03 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Diabetes In Developing Countries
The efficacy of once-daily liraglutide as an add-on to oral antidiabetic agents on weight reduction and glycemic control in obese patients with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes: a retrospective analysis in relation to liraglutide dose escalation within a 7-month treatment period
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Background This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of once-daily liraglutide as an add-on to oral antidiabetics (OADs) on glycemic control and body weight in obese patients with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods A total of 27 obese T2D patients who received 7 months (0.6 mg/day for the first month, 1.2 mg/day for 3 months, and 1.8 mg/day for 3 months) of liraglutide treatment as an add-on to OADs were included. Data on body weight (kg), fasting plasma glucose (FPG, mg/dL), postprandial glucose (PPG, mg/dL), and HbA1c (%), were recorded. Results Liraglutide doses of 1.2 mg/day and 1.8 mg/day were associated with significant decreases in body weight (by 8.0% and 11.9%, respectively, p < 0.01 for each) and HbA1c (by 20.0

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of electron energy distribution function and transport parameters for CF4 and Ar gases discharge by using the solution of Boltzmann equation-Part I
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The Boltzmann transport equation is solved by using two- terms approximation for pure gases . This method of solution is used to calculate the electron energy distribution function and electric transport parameters were evaluated in the range of E/N varying from . 172152110./510.VcmENVcm
From the results we can conclude that the electron energy distribution function of CF4 gas is nearly Maxwellian at (1,2)Td, and when E/N increase the distribution function is non Maxwellian. Behavior of electrons transport parameters is nearly from the experimental results in references. The drift velocity of electron in carbon tetraflouride is large compared with other gases

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Intraventricular Pressure Ventr
The Use of Rate of Increase of Intraventricular Pressure During Isovolumetric Contraction (dP/dt) in Assessment of Left Ventricular Function in Acute Coronary Syndrome
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BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is the clinical manifestation of acutely diminished coronary arterial blood supply. The rate of increase of intraventricular pressure during isovolumetric contraction (left ventricular dP/dt) represents the rate of change of pressure during ejection. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of the rate of increase of intraventricular pressure during isovolumetric contraction (dP/dt) in assessment of left ventricular function in patients with acute coronary syndrome and its relation to certain clinical and echocardiographic features. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study is a cross sectional study including 50 patients with an established diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome. The

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Calculation of the partical distribution function g(r12,r1) for Carbon Ion cases (C+2,C+3,C+4) in the position space
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The aim of this work is study the partical distribution function g(r12,r1) for Carbon ion cases (C+2,C+3,C+4) in the position space using Hartree-Fock's Wave function, and the partitioning technique for each shell which is represented by Carbon Ions [C+2 (1s22s2)], [C+3 (1s22s)] and [C+4 (1s2)]. A comparision has been made among the three Carbon ions for each shell. A computer programs (MATHCAD ver. 2001i) has been used texcute the results.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of electron energy distribution function and transport parameters for CF4, Ar gases mixture discharge by using the solution of Boltzmann equation-Part II
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The Boltzmann transport equation is solved by using two- terms approximation for pure gases and mixtures. This method of solution is used to calculate the electron energy distribution function and electric transport parameters were evaluated in the range of E/N varying from . 172152110./510.VcmENVcm
The electron energy distribution function of CF4 gas is nearly Maxwellian at (1,2)Td, and when E/N increase the distribution function is non Maxwellian. Also, the mixtures are have different energy values depending on transport energy between electron and molecule through the collisions. Behavior of electrons transport parameters is nearly from the experimental results in references. The drift velocity of electron in carbon tetraflouride i

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 24 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Effect of TNF-Alpha Gene Polymorphisms At -376 G/A, -806 C/T, and -1031 T/C on The Likelihood of Becoming a Non-Responder to Etanercept in A Sample of Iraqi Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients
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Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) antagonists’ therapy are expensive and has a non-responsive rate between 30% to 40% in rheumatoid arthritis patients. Genetic variation plays a vital role in the responsiveness to this type of therapy.The aim of this study is to investigate if the presence of genetic polymorphism in the TNF-α gene promoter region at locations -376 G/A (rs1800750), -806 C/T (rs4248158), and -1031 T/C (rs1799964) affects rheumatoid arthritis patient's tendency to be a non-responder to etanercept.

Eighty RA patients on etanercept (ETN) for at least six months were recruited from the Rheumatology Unit at Baghdad Teaching Hospital. Based on The European League Against Rheumatism response (EULAR) criteria, patient

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Vapor-Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium (VLLE) Data for the Systems Ethyl acetate + Water, Toluene + Water and Toluene + Ethyl acetate + Water at 101.3 kPa. Using Modified Equilibrium Still
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Isobaric Vapor-Liquid-Liquid equilibrium data for the binary systems ethyl acetate + water, toluene + water and the ternary system toluene + ethyl acetate + water were determined by a modified equilibrium still, the still consisted of a boiling and a condensation sections supplied with mixers that helped to correct the composition of the recycled condensed liquid and the boiling temperature readings in the condensation and boiling sections respectively. The VLLE data where predicted and correlated using the Peng-Robinson Equation of State in the vapor phase and one of the activity coefficient models Wilson, NRTL, UNIQUAC and the UNIFAC in the liquid phase and also were correlated using the Peng-Robinson Equation of State in both the vapo

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
2013 Ieee International Conference On Circuits And Systems (iccas)
Improved undetected error probability model for JTEC and JTEC-SQED coding schemes
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The undetected error probability is an important measure to assess the communication reliability provided by any error coding scheme. Two error coding schemes namely, Joint crosstalk avoidance and Triple Error Correction (JTEC) and JTEC with Simultaneous Quadruple Error Detection (JTEC-SQED), provide both crosstalk reduction and multi-bit error correction/detection features. The available undetected error probability model yields an upper bound value which does not give accurate estimation on the reliability provided. This paper presents an improved mathematical model to estimate the undetected error probability of these two joint coding schemes. According to the decoding algorithm the errors are classified into patterns and their decoding

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