The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Asset management involves efficient planning of economic and technical performance characteristics of infrastructure systems. Managing a sewer network requires various types of activities so the network can be able to achieve a certain level of performance. During the lifetime of the network various components will start to deteriorate leading to bad performance and can damage the infrastructure. The main objective of this research is to develop deterioration models to provide an assessment tool for determining the serviceability of the sewer networks in Baghdad city the Zeppelin line was selected as a case study, as well as to give top management authorities the appropriate decision making. Different modeling techniques
... Show MoreOptimum perforation location selection is an important study to improve well production and hence in the reservoir development process, especially for unconventional high-pressure formations such as the formations under study. Reservoir geomechanics is one of the key factors to find optimal perforation location. This study aims to detect optimum perforation location by investigating the changes in geomechanical properties and wellbore stress for high-pressure formations and studying the difference in different stress type behaviors between normal and abnormal formations. The calculations are achieved by building one-dimensional mechanical earth model using the data of four deep abnormal wells located in Southern Iraqi oil fields. The magni
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The extremes effects in parameters readings which are BOD (Biological Oxygen Demands) and DO(Dissolved Oxygen) can caused error estimating of the model’s parameters which used to determine the ratio of de oxygenation and re oxygenation of the dissolved oxygen(DO),then that will caused launch big amounts of the sewage pollution water to the rivers and it’s turn is effect in negative form on the ecosystem life and the different types of the water wealth.
As result of what mention before this research came to employees Streeter-Phleps model parameters estimation which are (Kd,Kr) the de oxygenation and re oxygenation ratios on respect
... Show MoreIn this research The study of Multi-level model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level models and one of the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa
... Show MoreA Genetic Algorithm optimization model is used in this study to find the optimum flow values of the Tigris river branches near Ammara city, which their water is to be used for central marshes restoration after mixing in Maissan River. These tributaries are Al-Areed, AlBittera and Al-Majar Al-Kabeer Rivers. The aim of this model is to enhance the water quality in Maissan River, hence provide acceptable water quality for marsh restoration. The model is applied for different water quality change scenarios ,i.e. , 10%,20% increase in EC,TDS and BOD. The model output are the optimum flow values for the three rivers while, the input data are monthly flows(1994-2011),monthly water requirements and water quality parameters (EC, TDS, BOD, DO and
... Show MoreVolleyball is one of the sports that require physical and skill abilities thus many teaching models appeared to teach these abilities like group investigation model. The research aimed at identifying the effect of group investigation model on learning underarm and overhead passing in volleyball. The researchers hypothesized statistical differences between pre and posttests in learning underarm and overhead passing in volleyball as well as differences in posttests of controlling and experimental groups in learning underarm and overhead passing in volleyball. The researcher used the experimental method on (30) second year female students of physical education and sport sciences college/ university of Baghdad. Group investigation model was app
... Show MoreIn this research, the multi-period probabilistic inventory model will be applied to the stores of raw materials used in the leather industry at the General Company for Leather Industries. The raw materials are:Natural leather includes cowhide, whether imported or local, buffalo leather, lamb leather, goat skin, chamois (raw materials made from natural leather), polished leather (raw materials made from natural leather), artificial leather (skai), supplements which include: (cuffs - Clocks - hands - pockets), and threads.This model was built after testing and determining the distribution of demand during the supply period (waiting period) for each material and completely independently from the rest of the materials, as none of the above mate
... Show MoreThe ground state properties including the density distributions of the neutrons, protons and matter as well as the corresponding root mean square (rms) radii of proton-rich halo candidates 8B, 12N, 23Al and 27P have been studied by the single particle Bear– Hodgson (BH) wave functions with the two-body model of (core+p). It is found that the rms radii of these proton-rich nuclei are reproduced well by this model and the radial wave functions describe the long tail of the proton and matter density distributions. These results indicate that this model achieves a suitable description of the possible halo structure. The plane wave Born approximation (PWBA) has been used to compute the elastic charge form factors.
The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien
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