The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Simulation Study
Abstract :
Robust statistics Known as, Resistance to mistakes resulting of the deviation of Check hypotheses of statistical properties ( Adjacent Unbiased , The Efficiency of data taken from a wide range of probability distributions follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions with different standard deviations.
power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. Measuring its total capacity as frequency function.
Estimation methods Share with
... Show MorePhysically based modeling approach has been widely developed in recent years for the simulation of dam failure process due to the lack of field data. This paper provides and describes a physically-based model depending on dimensional analysis and hydraulic simulation methods for estimating the maximum water level and the wave propagation time from breaching of field test dams. The field physical model has been constructed in Dabbah city to represent the collapse of the Roseires dam in Sudan. Five cases of a dam failure were studied to simulate water flood conditions by changing initial water height in the reservoir (0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 and 1.5 m respectively).The physical model working under five cases, case 5 had the greatest influence of t
... Show MoreA3D geological model was constructed for Al-Sadi reservoir/ Halfaya Oil Field which is discovered in 1976 and located 35 km from Amara city, southern of Iraq towards the Iraqi/ Iranian borders.
Petrel 2014 was used to build the geological model. This model was created depending on the available information about the reservoir under study such as 2D seismic map, top and bottom of wells, geological data & well log analysis (CPI). However, the reservoir was sub-divided into 132x117x80 grid cells in the X, Y&Z directions respectively, in order to well represent the entire Al-Sadi reservoir.
Well log interpretation (CPI) and core data for the existing 6 wells were the basis of the petrophysical model (
... Show MoreThe paper has been summarized into the following:
Chapter one: the researcher deals with the problem of the paper, the most important points and the terminology. Chapter two: the researcher deals Surat Luqman from the Aya 12-19 , (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). In chapter three the researcher deals with Surat AL-Hujurat from Aya 6-12, (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). Chapter four include (the educational properties for individual and society, the educational applications, and the most important indicators in the texts). Chapter five include the results , the conclusions and the recommendations. One of the basic results that the Quran is a complete educational curriculum, and the texts of Surat Lu
Many carbonate reservoirs in the world show a tilted in originally oil-water contact (OOWC) which requires a special consideration in the selection of the capillary pressure curves and an understanding of reservoir fluids distribution while initializing the reservoir simulation models.
An analytical model for predicting the capillary pressure across the interface that separates two immiscible fluids was derived from reservoir pressure transient analysis. The model reflected the entire interaction between the reservoir-aquifer fluids and rock properties measured under downhole reservoir conditions.
This model retained the natural coupling of oil reservoirs with the aquifer zone and treated them as an explicit-region composite system
The interplay of predation, competition between species and harvesting is one of the most critical aspects of the environment. This paper involves exploring the dynamics of four species' interactions. The system includes two competitive prey and two predators; the first prey is preyed on by the first predator, with the former representing an additional food source for the latter. While the second prey is not exposed to predation but rather is exposed to the harvest. The existence of possible equilibria is found. Conditions of local and global stability for the equilibria are derived. To corroborate our findings, we constructed time series to illustrate the existence and the stability of equilibria numerically by varying the different values
... Show MoreNew complexes have been prepared from the new ligand [2,2′‐(5,5‐dimethylcyclohexane‐1,3‐diylidene)bis(azan‐1‐yl‐1‐ylidene)dibenzoic acid] derived from 5,5‐dimethylcyclohexane‐1,3‐dione and 2‐aminobenzoic acid. Accordingly, its mono and binuclear Mn(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), and Cd(II) complexes were prepared. The prepared components have been characterized by various spectroscopic techniques and elemental analysis. The thermal stability of the ligand and its complexes were performed by TGA. It was found that all the complexes have excellent thermal stability and do not contain water molecules within their structure, but the ligand has little stability. Additionally, theor
End of the twentieth century witnessed by the technological evolution Convergences between the visual arts aesthetic value and objective representation of the image in the composition of the design of the fabric of new insights and unconventional potential in atypical employment. It is through access to the designs of modern fabrics that address the employment picture footage included several scenes footage from the film, which focuses on research and analytical as a study to demonstrate the elements of the picture and the organization of its rules and how to functioning in the design of fabrics, Thus, it has identified the problem by asking the following: What are the elements of the picture footage and how the functioning of the struct
... Show MoreA Novel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twentyfour samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.