The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this paper a mathematical model that analytically as well as numerically
the flow of infection disease in a population is proposed and studied. It is
assumed that the disease divided the population into five classes: immature
susceptible individuals (S1) , mature individuals (S2 ) , infectious individual
(I ), removal individuals (R) and vaccine population (V) . The existence,
uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The
local and global stability of the model is studied. Finally the global dynamics of
the proposed model is studied numerically.
In this paper, a new method of selection variables is presented to select some essential variables from large datasets. The new model is a modified version of the Elastic Net model. The modified Elastic Net variable selection model has been summarized in an algorithm. It is applied for Leukemia dataset that has 3051 variables (genes) and 72 samples. In reality, working with this kind of dataset is not accessible due to its large size. The modified model is compared to some standard variable selection methods. Perfect classification is achieved by applying the modified Elastic Net model because it has the best performance. All the calculations that have been done for this paper are in
In this paper, we study the incorporation of the commensalism interaction and harvesting on the Lotka–Volterra food chain model. The system provides one commensal prey, one harvested prey, and two predators. A set of preliminary results in local bifurcation analysis around each equilibrium point for the proposed model is discussed, such as saddle-node, transcritical and pitchfork. Some numerical analysis to confirm the accruing of local bifurcation is illustrated. To back up the conclusions of the mathematical study, a numerical simulation of the model is carried out with the help of the MATLAB program. It can be concluded that the system's coexistence can be achieved as long as the harvesting rate on the second prey population is
... Show MoreAn analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.
A3D geological model was constructed for Al-Sadi reservoir/ Halfaya Oil Field which is discovered in 1976 and located 35 km from Amara city, southern of Iraq towards the Iraqi/ Iranian borders.
Petrel 2014 was used to build the geological model. This model was created depending on the available information about the reservoir under study such as 2D seismic map, top and bottom of wells, geological data & well log analysis (CPI). However, the reservoir was sub-divided into 132x117x80 grid cells in the X, Y&Z directions respectively, in order to well represent the entire Al-Sadi reservoir.
Well log interpretation (CPI) and core data for the existing 6 wells were the basis of the petrophysical model (
... Show MoreA rapid growth has occurred for the act of plagiarism with the aid of Internet explosive growth wherein a massive volume of information offered with effortless use and access makes plagiarism the process of taking someone else’s work (represented by ideas, or even words) and representing it as other's own work easy to be performed. For ensuring originality, detecting plagiarism has been massively necessitated in various areas so that the people who aim to plagiarize ought to offer considerable effort for introducing works centered on their research.
In this paper, work has been proposed for improving the detection of textual plagiarism through proposing a model for can
... Show MoreThe dubbing process for the Foreign Dramas by the Kurdish language became a serious phenomenon in the Kurdish satellite TV, especially in the past few years. It attracted a wide audience, especially young adolescents. And prepared by some breakthrough hostile to Kurdish culture and value coordinated by others remedy for the structural gaps and lapses have, as a result of climate which is brought into existence globalization and secretions variety dimensional, saturated value and cognitive effects bearing a strong identity of its elements. From here, the problem of this research is the ambiguity of their role in a series of developmental processes Kurdish awareness of young people and the extent of the impact that caused it.
This
... Show MoreThe objective of the research is to shed light on the nature of the impact of the activities of the national strategy for poverty alleviation in achieving the goals of sustainable development, and the research problem was represented by Is there an effect of the activities of the national strategy for poverty reduction in achieving the goals of sustainable development? and represents the field of research in the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs For the years (2012-2016) and the results of the sustainable development goals indicators for the years (2012-2016), the ready-made statistical program (SPSS ver.10) was used to calculate the percentages, multiple linear regression equation, the F test and the R2 coefficient, and the research
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