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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun May 11 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Estimating General Linear Regression Model of Big Data by Using Multiple Test Technique
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Combination Ovariectomy and D-galactose Administration on Alzheimer's Animal Model
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Background and purpose: Animal model helps researchers to evaluate new treatment plan for human and understand pathological mechanism involved in a development of disease. The use of rats as an animal model for Alzheimer's research has become a favorite among researchers. Rats are capable in mimicking Alzheimer disease due to their intelligence and quick adaptation to nature. At present there are several methods that can be used to induce Alzheimer's animals, but each method has advantages and disadvantages. We need to learn other methods that can provide many advantages and few disadvantages. The Amyloid-beta 42 (Aβ-42) and Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) are thought to play an important role in the pathology of Alzheimer’s disease. Th

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Publication Date
Mon May 11 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Proposing Robust LAD-Atan Penalty of Regression Model Estimation for High Dimensional Data
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         The issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the p

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 31 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Fuzzy Nonparametric Regression Model Estimation Based on some Smoothing Techniques With Practical Application
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In this research, we use fuzzy nonparametric methods based on some smoothing techniques, were applied to real data on the Iraqi stock market especially the data about Baghdad company for soft drinks for the year (2016) for the period (1/1/2016-31/12/2016) .A sample of (148) observations was obtained in order to construct a model of the relationship between the stock prices (Low, high, modal) and the traded value by comparing the results of the criterion (G.O.F.) for three techniques , we note that the lowest value for this criterion was for the K-Nearest Neighbor at Gaussian function .

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Building Engineering
Development of gravitational search algorithm model for predicting packing density of cementitious pastes
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Minar International Journal Of Applied Sciences And Technology
INNOVATE GESTATIONAL AGE ESTIMATION MODEL FOR IRAQI FETUSES BASED ON ULTRASOUND IMAGES MEASUREMENTS
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Imaging by Ultrasound (US) is an accurate and useful modality for the assessment of gestational age (GA), estimation fetal weight, and monitoring the fetal growth during pregnancy, is a routine part of prenatal care, and that can greatly impact obstetric management. Estimation of GA is important in obstetric care, making appropriate management decisions requires accurate appraisal of GA. Accurate GA estimation may assist obstetricians in appropriately counseling women who are at risk of a preterm delivery about likely neonatal outcomes, and it is essential in the evaluation of the fetal growth and detection of intrauterine growth restriction. There are many formulas are used to estimate fetal GA in the world, but it's not specify fo

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Publication Date
Mon May 11 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Proposing Robust LAD-Atan Penalty of Regression Model Estimation for High Dimensional Data
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         The issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the proposed LAD-Atan estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Theoretical Computation of Electron Density in Laser-Induced Carbon Plasma using Anisimov Model
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In this work, electron number density calculated using Matlab program code with the writing algorithm of the program. Electron density was calculated using Anisimov model in a vacuum environment. The effect of spatial coordinates on the electron density was investigated in this study. It was found that the Z axis distance direction affects the electron number density (ne). There are many processes such as excitation; ionization and recombination within the plasma that possible affect the density of electrons. The results show that as Z axis distance increases electron number density decreases because of the recombination of electrons and ions at large distances from the target and the loss of thermal energy of the electrons in high distance

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2012
Journal Name
2012 Second International Conference On Digital Information And Communication Technology And It's Applications (dictap)
The compact Genetic Algorithm for likelihood estimator of first order moving average model
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Recently Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have frequently been used for optimizing the solution of estimation problems. One of the main advantages of using these techniques is that they require no knowledge or gradient information about the response surface. The poor behavior of genetic algorithms in some problems, sometimes attributed to design operators, has led to the development of other types of algorithms. One such class of these algorithms is compact Genetic Algorithm (cGA), it dramatically reduces the number of bits reqyuired to store the poulation and has a faster convergence speed. In this paper compact Genetic Algorithm is used to optimize the maximum likelihood estimator of the first order moving avergae model MA(1). Simulation results

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Power System Stabilizer PSS4B Model for Iraqi National Grid using PSS/E Software
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To damp the low-frequency oscillations which occurred due to the disturbances in the electrical power system, the generators are equipped with Power System Stabilizer (PSS) that provide supplementary feedback stabilizing signals. The low-frequency oscillations in power system are classified as local mode oscillations, intra-area mode oscillation, and interarea mode oscillations. Double input multiband Power system stabilizers (PSSs) were used to damp out low-frequency oscillations in power system. Among dual-input PSSs, PSS4B offers superior transient performance. Power system simulator for engineering (PSS/E) software was adopted to test and evaluate the dynamic performance of PSS4B model on Iraqi national grid. The results showed

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