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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 12 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Adherence and Beliefs to Adjuvant Hormonal Therapy in Patients with Breast Cancer: A Cross-Sectional Study (Conference Paper) #
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  Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women over the world. To reducing reoccurrence and mortality rates, adjuvant hormonal therapy (AHT) is used for a long period. The major barrier to the effectiveness of the treatment is adherence. Adherence to medicines among patients is challenging. Patient beliefs in medications can be positively or negatively correlated to adherence. Objectives: To investigate the extent of adherence and factors affecting adherence, as well as to investigate the association between beliefs and adherence in women with breast cancer taking AHT. Method: A cross-sectional study included 124 Iraqi women with breast cancer recruited from Middle Euphrates

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
KEY TO THE SPECIES OF THE ORTHETRUM NEWMAN, 1833 (ODONATA, LIBELLULIDAE) WITH A NEW RECORD SPECIES IN IRAQ
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This paper provides an identification key to the species of Orthetrum Newman, 1833 (Odonata, Libellulidae), including six species that were collected from different localities in Iraq.

 

    The species of O. anceps (Schneider, 1845) is registered as a new record in Iraq; the most important characters which are used in diagnostic key are included

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 18 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Maternal knowledge related to anemia during pregnancy among a sample of mothers attending Primary Health Care centers. Baghdad.
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Background: Anaemia is a major public health concern and is one of the most prevalent health issue in women within reproductive age group.

Objective: to assess maternal knowledge related to anaemia during pregnancy.

Type of the study: A cross –sectional study.

Method: The study including 200 mothers who attended selected primary health care centres, Baghdad during November and December 2015, they completed a previously prepared questionnaire coveringsocio-demographic characteristics and knowledge regarding anaemia in 4 main domains. The responses were analysed by using frequency, percentage and percent score for each statement a

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 13 2016
Journal Name
University Of Baghdad
Employ Mathematical Model and Neural Networks for Determining Rate Environmental Contamination
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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Methods And Objects Of Chemical Analysis
Spectrophotometric Analysis of Quaternary Drug Mixtures using Artificial Neural network model
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Novel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twentyfour samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Bulletin Of Electrical Engineering And Informatics
Proposed model for data protection in information systems of government institutions
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Information systems and data exchange between government institutions are growing rapidly around the world, and with it, the threats to information within government departments are growing. In recent years, research into the development and construction of secure information systems in government institutions seems to be very effective. Based on information system principles, this study proposes a model for providing and evaluating security for all of the departments of government institutions. The requirements of any information system begin with the organization's surroundings and objectives. Most prior techniques did not take into account the organizational component on which the information system runs, despite the relevance of

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 12 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Mathematical Research
The dynamics of nutrient, toxic phytoplankton, nontoxic phytoplankton and zooplankton model
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<p>The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behavior of an aquatic food web system. A mathematical model that includes nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that, the phytoplankton divided into two compartments namely toxic phytoplankton which produces a toxic substance as a defensive strategy against predation by zooplankton, and a nontoxic phytoplankton. All the feeding processes in this food web are formulating according to the Lotka-Volterra functional response. This model is represented mathematically by the set of nonlinear differential equations. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of this model are investigated. The local and global stability

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cox proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease in Iraq
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Cox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 06 2022
Journal Name
Methods And Objects Of Chemical Analysis
Spectrophotometric Analysis of Quaternary Drug Mixtures using Artificial Neural network model
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A Novel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twenty four samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
3D geological model of Nahr Umr/Ratawi oil field in Basra
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Abstract<p>The study includes building a 3-D geological model, which involves get the Petrophysical properties as (porosity, permeability and water saturation). Effective Porosity, water saturation results from log interpretation process and permeability from special correlation using core data and log data. Clay volume can be calculated by six ways using IP software v3.5 the best way was by using gamma Ray. Also, Water Resistivity, flushed zone saturation and bulk volume analysis determined through geological study. Lithology determined in several ways using M-N matrix Identification, Density-Neutron and Sonic-Neutron cross plots. The cut off values are determined by Using EHC (Equivalent Hydra</p> ... Show More
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