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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Seismic and Velocity Study of Luhais Oil Field Using Velocity Model
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In this study, a qualitative seismic velocity interpretation is made up through using 2D-seismic reflection data on Luhais oil field in southern of Iraq which is situated at about 105 Km to the east from the Basra city. Luhais oil field was chosen to study the type and nature of the distribution of the seismic velocities of Nahr Umr and Zubair Formations in order to show its explorational importance, where these formations contain abundant quantities of hydrocarbons. Picking of the tops of Nahr Umr and Zubair was carried out from the synthetic seismogram which is calculated from sonic-logs and check shot of well Lu-2. Velocity model was obtained via using an implementation of Petrel program version, 2013 and was corrected according to to

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Educational values in the Quran: Surat Luqman and AL- Hujurat model
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The paper has been summarized into the following:
Chapter one: the researcher deals with the problem of the paper, the most important points and the terminology. Chapter two: the researcher deals Surat Luqman from the Aya 12-19 , (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). In chapter three the researcher deals with Surat AL-Hujurat from Aya 6-12, (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). Chapter four include (the educational properties for individual and society, the educational applications, and the most important indicators in the texts). Chapter five include the results , the conclusions and the recommendations. One of the basic results that the Quran is a complete educational curriculum, and the texts of Surat Lu

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Publication Date
Thu May 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Use of HSV Color Model for Subtle Ear Region Extraction
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Identifying people by their ear has recently received import attention in the literature. The accurate segmentation of the ear region is vital in order to make successful person identification decisions. This paper presents an effective approach for ear region segmentation from color ear images. Firstly, the RGB color model was converted to the HSV color model. Secondly, thresholding was utilized to segment the ear region. Finally, the morphological operations were applied to remove small islands and fill the gaps. The proposed method was tested on a database which consisted of 105 ear images taken from the right sides of 105 subjects. The experimental results of the proposed approach on a variety of ear images revealed that this approac

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
On The Mathematical Model of Two- Prey and Two-Predator Species
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In this work, we study two species of predator with two species of prey model, where the two species of prey live in two diverse habitats and have the ability to group-defense. Only one of the two predators tends to switch between the habitats. The mathematical model has at most 13 possible equilibrium points, one of which is the point of origin, two are axial, tow are interior points and the others are boundary points. The model with , where n is the switching index, is discussed regarding the boundedness of its solutions and the local stability of its equilibrium points. In addition, a basin of attraction was created for the interior point. Finally, three numerical examples were given to support the theoretical results.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2011
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Back stepping-Based-PID-Controller Designed for an Artificial Pancreas model
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Artificial pancreas is simulated to handle Type I diabetic patients under intensive care by automatically controlling the insulin infusion rate. A Backstepping technique is used to apply the effect of PID controller to blood glucose level since there is no direct relation between insulin infusion (the manipulated variable) and glucose level in Bergman’s system model subjected to an oral glucose tolerance test by applying a meal translated into a disturbance. Backstepping technique is usually recommended to stabilize and control the states of Bergman's class of nonlinear systems. The results showed a very satisfactory behavior of glucose deviation to a sudden rise represented by the meal that increase the blood glucose

 

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cox proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease in Iraq
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Cox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 11 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
Three-species food chain model with cannibalism in the second level
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This article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Robust Estimations for power Spectrum in ARMA(1,1) Model Simulation Study
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Simulation Study

 

Abstract :

Robust statistics Known as, Resistance to mistakes resulting of the deviation of Check hypotheses of statistical properties ( Adjacent Unbiased  , The Efficiency of data taken from a wide range of probability distributions follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions with different standard deviations.

 power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. Measuring  its total capacity as frequency function.

Estimation methods Share with

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Bulletin Of Electrical Engineering And Informatics
Proposed model for data protection in information systems of government institutions
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Information systems and data exchange between government institutions are growing rapidly around the world, and with it, the threats to information within government departments are growing. In recent years, research into the development and construction of secure information systems in government institutions seems to be very effective. Based on information system principles, this study proposes a model for providing and evaluating security for all of the departments of government institutions. The requirements of any information system begin with the organization's surroundings and objectives. Most prior techniques did not take into account the organizational component on which the information system runs, despite the relevance of

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Effect of Mutual Interaction and Harvesting on Food Chain Model
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       This paper treats the interactions among four population species. The system includes one mutuality prey, one harvested prey and two predators. The four species interaction can be described as a food chain, where the first prey helps the second harvested prey. The first and the second predator attack the first and the second prey, respectively, according to Lotka-Volterra type functional responses. The model is formulated using differential equations. One equilibrium point of the model is found and analysed to reveal a threshold that will allow the coexistence of all species. All other equilibrium points of the system are located, with their local and global stability being assessed. To back up the conclusions of the mathema

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