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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Case Studies In Construction Materials
Experimental study of temperature effect on the mechanical tensile fatigue of hydrated lime modified asphalt concrete and case application for the analysis of climatic effect on constructed pavement
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Previous experimental studies have suggested that hot mixed asphalt (HMA) concrete using hydrated lime (HL) to partially replace the conventional limestone dust filler at 2.5% by the total weight of all aggregates showed an optimum improvement on several key mechanical properties, fatigue life span and moisture susceptibility. However, so far, the knowledge of the thermal response of the modified asphalt concrete and thermal influence on the durability of the pavement constructed are still relatively limited but important to inform pavement design. This paper, at first, reports an experimental study of the tensile fatigue life of HMA concrete mixes designed for wearing layer application. Tests were conducted under three different temperatur

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EXPOSURE TO TELEVISION PROMOTION OF PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THEM / FIELD RESEARCH FOR A SAMPLE OF THE AUDIENCE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD: EXPOSURE TO TELEVISION PROMOTION OF PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THEM / FIELD RESEARCH FOR A SAMPLE OF THE AUDIENCE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD
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A field study was conducted on a sample of the public in Baghdad to study the audience's exposure to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products and their trends in order to determine the rate of exposure of the public to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products according to the theory of uses and rumors and to determine the public's attitudes towards television promotion of pharmaceutical products. A survey of (25) a questions was distributed to a sample of the audience of 150 people. The statistical program SPSS was used to unload the data and for the calculation of frequencies and percentages and correlation coefficients. The research reached several results, Most importantly, the television promotion is well receiv

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Design of Self-Assessment Scale to Accreditation Standards
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The process of self-assessment plays a key role in achieving quality educational institutions (college, department or program academic particular), because the assessment process provides reviews of the effectiveness of the criteria used in the enterprise, especially in the field of teaching and learning, and is result self-assessment providing self-assessment report. The self- assessment can be performed at different levels (college, academic department, Master, Ph.D. program, or courses). The importance of the research focused on to provide a measure of self-assessment helps profile officials in the implementation of the assessment process are clear and precise and fast, and to provide them to measure the availability requireme

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Balance and unbalance in alliance relations The Saudi Arabia and United State Relation as model: The Balance and unbalance in alliance relations The Saudi Arabia and United State Relation as model
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Abstract:
Saudi Arabia and United States long relation could present an important
subject to understand alliance kind in international relations types. We trying
in this study to diagnose and analyze the Saudi Arabia and United States
model to find balance and unbalance statues and its influence on the
directions of Saudi Arabia foreign policy positions.
We divided the study in two parts, each part have many sections. The
first part deal with the historian emergence of Saudi Arabia state and its
development in three stages including its foreign relations with regions and
international powers. While the second part was dedicated in analyzing and
understanding the mechanism and active facts that drawing the Sa

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
تجربة بناء نظام تصنیف خاص لموضوعات التربیة الریاضیة بالاستعانة بتصنیف الكولون للرسائل الجامعیة العراقیة لمكتبة كلیة التربیة الریاضیة – جامعة بغداد
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This research aims to find a proper way to organize the theses of the
physical education college’ s Library – Baghdad University , this is done by
applying a classification system which depends on analyzing a building a
classification number as Colon classification system , to help the classifier to
simplify and speed the procedure of building a classification number , this is
done by knowing the physical education subjects and subdivide them to their
primary and giving them a proper symbols that describes the subject .

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series
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        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The perceptive image of volunteering and its relationship to the motives towards volunteering among a sample of Al-Quds Open University students.
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This study aimed to identify the perceived mental image of volunteering, and its relationship to volunteer motivation among a sample of Al-Quds Open University students, as well as to identify the differences in the perceived mental image of volunteering due to variables (gender, year of study, place of residence, college). The researcher has used relational descriptive approach. The researcher has used two questionnaires, the first was used to measure the perceptive mental image of volunteering, and the second to measure the motivation towards volunteering, and the study population may consist of all students of Al-Quds Open University Hebron Branch during the first semester of the academic year 2021/2020 and their number (3462)Male and

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-nahrain University-science
Synthesis of Polyacrylamides from Derivatives 2-Aminobenzothiazole and also Preparation of Dibutylphthalate as a Plasticizer to Estimate Plasticization Behaviour for Prepared Polymers
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Publication Date
Thu May 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Kerbala For Agricultural Sciences
Response of Bread Wheat Crop to the Spray of Alcoholic Sugars and A balanced Mineral Fertilizer in the Central Region of Iraq
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Two field experiments were conducted during the season 2021-2022 in central Iraq represented by the Al-Muthanna governorate - Al-Majd District and Al-Qadisiyah governorate / Al-Nouriah Research Station to determine the productivity of the Baghdad 3 cultivar from spray foliar fertilization of Macro and Micro elements with alcoholic sugars and half the fertilizer recommendation for addition floor, three treatments were used for fertilization: T1 as the control treatment and T2 with alcoholic sugar fertilization at a concentration of 20 g.L-1 + the fertilizer combination of Macro and Micro elements, and T3 with alcoholic sugar fertilization at a concentration of 40 g.L-1 + the fertilizer combination of Macro and Microelements, at irrigation 55

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 28 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Oral health status, salivary physical properties and salivary Mutans Streptococci among a group of mouth breathing patients in comparison to nose breathing
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Background: Mouth breathing can lead to introduce cold, dry unprepared air that insults the tissue of oral cavity, nasopharynx and lung, leading in turn to pathological changes in oronasal cavity, nasopharyngeal and other respiratory tissue, mouth breathing associated with nasal obstruction may lead to many health problems, in particular oral health problems such as inflammation of gingiva, oral dryness, change in oral environment that may decrease pH, salivary flow rate and increase bacteria and dental caries.Aims of the present study were to assess the oral health condition among mouth breather associated with nasal obstruction, including dental caries, oral cleanliness and gingival health condition as well as to evaluate the changes in s

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