The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The study seeks to investigate the effect of Dunn Dunn learning style model on students’ achievement. Besides, the way of developing students’ deductive thinking by testing the null hypothesis: there is no significant difference between experimental group who takes Dunn Dunn model as style in studying geography and control group that follows a traditional method in studying geography at the level of (0,05). Additionally, there is no significant difference between experimental group who takes Dunn Dunn model as style in studying geography and control group that follows a traditional method in studying geography at the level of (0,05) on testing developing deductive thinking skills. The researcher adopted a quasi-experimental posttest
... Show MoreA simplified theoretical comparison of the hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) chemical lasers is presented by using computer program. The program is able to predict quantitative variations of the laser characteristics as a function of rotational and vibrational quantum number. Lasing is assumed to occur in a Fabry-Perot cavity on vibration-rotation transitions between two vibrational levels of hypothetical diatomic molecule. This study include a comprehensive parametric analysis that indicates that the large rotational constant of HF laser in comparison with HCl laser makes it relatively easy to satisfy the partial inversion criterion. The results of this computer program proved their credibility when compared with th
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In this article we study a single stochastic process model for the evaluate the assets pricing and stock.,On of the models le'vy . depending on the so –called Brownian subordinate as it has been depending on the so-called Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG). this article aims as the estimate that the parameters of his model using my way (MME,MLE) and then employ those estimate of the parameters is the study of stock returns and evaluate asset pricing for both the united Bank and Bank of North which their data were taken from the Iraq stock Exchange.
which showed the results to a preference MLE on MME based on the standard of comparison the average square e
... Show MoreDEMs, thus, simply regular grids of elevation measurements over the land surface.The aim of the present work is to produce high resolution DEM for certain investigated region (i.e. Baghdad University Campus\ college of science). The easting and northing of 90 locations, including the ground-base and buildings of the studied area, have been obtained by field survey using global positioning system (GPS). The image of the investigated area has been extracted from Quick-Bird satellite sensor (with spatial resolution of 0.6 m). It has been geo-referenced and rectified using 1st order polynomial transformation. many interpolation methods have been used to estimate the elevation such as ordinary Kriging, inverse distance weight
... Show MoreIndustrial Investment according to Clean Productive methods is an important element in the process of rational use of Economic Resources, and the Iraqi industrial sector relied on traditional production methods; the productive activities in this sector did not take into consideration the environmental dimension, which leads to achieving the optimal use of economic resources, so it was necessary to have new investment trends heading with Clean Production. Therefore, the research is based on the hypothesis that "Clean Production contributes to improving the environment and rational use of Natural Resources." Based on the descriptive - inductive analysis methodology that study of Iraqi industries with Clean Production,
... Show MoreIn the present paper, an eco-epidemiological model consisting of diseased prey consumed by a predator with fear cost, and hunting cooperation property is formulated and studied. It is assumed that the predator doesn’t distinguish between the healthy prey and sick prey and hence it consumed both. The solution’s properties such as existence, uniqueness, positivity, and bounded are discussed. The existence and stability conditions of all possible equilibrium points are studied. The persistence requirements of the proposed system are established. The bifurcation analysis near the non-hyperbolic equilibrium points is investigated. Numerically, some simulations are carried out to validate the main findings and obtain the critical values of th
... Show MoreIsobaric Vapor-Liquid-Liquid equilibrium data for the binary systems ethyl acetate + water, toluene + water and the ternary system toluene + ethyl acetate + water were determined by a modified equilibrium still, the still consisted of a boiling and a condensation sections supplied with mixers that helped to correct the composition of the recycled condensed liquid and the boiling temperature readings in the condensation and boiling sections respectively. The VLLE data where predicted and correlated using the Peng-Robinson Equation of State in the vapor phase and one of the activity coefficient models Wilson, NRTL, UNIQUAC and the UNIFAC in the liquid phase and also were correlated using the Peng-Robinson Equation of State in both the vapo
... Show MoreTumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) antagonists’ therapy are expensive and has a non-responsive rate between 30% to 40% in rheumatoid arthritis patients. Genetic variation plays a vital role in the responsiveness to this type of therapy.The aim of this study is to investigate if the presence of genetic polymorphism in the TNF-α gene promoter region at locations -376 G/A (rs1800750), -806 C/T (rs4248158), and -1031 T/C (rs1799964) affects rheumatoid arthritis patient's tendency to be a non-responder to etanercept.
Eighty RA patients on etanercept (ETN) for at least six months were recruited from the Rheumatology Unit at Baghdad Teaching Hospital. Based on The European League Against Rheumatism response (EULAR) criteria, patient
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