The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This research aims to study the methods of reduction of dimensions that overcome the problem curse of dimensionality when traditional methods fail to provide a good estimation of the parameters So this problem must be dealt with directly . Two methods were used to solve the problem of high dimensional data, The first method is the non-classical method Slice inverse regression ( SIR ) method and the proposed weight standard Sir (WSIR) method and principal components (PCA) which is the general method used in reducing dimensions, (SIR ) and (PCA) is based on the work of linear combinations of a subset of the original explanatory variables, which may suffer from the problem of heterogeneity and the problem of linear
... Show MoreThrough recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth
... Show MoreGrey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "m
... Show MoreIn this research weights, which are used, are estimated using General Least Square Estimation to estimate simple linear regression parameters when the depended variable, which is used, consists of two classes attributes variable (for Heteroscedastic problem) depending on Sequential Bayesian Approach instead of the Classical approach used before, Bayes approach provides the mechanism of tackling observations one by one in a sequential way, i .e each new observation will add a new piece of information for estimating the parameter of probability estimation of certain phenomenon of Bernoulli trials who research the depended variable in simple regression linear equation. in addition to the information deduced from the past exper
... Show MoreIn some cases, researchers need to know the causal effect of the treatment in order to know the extent of the effect of the treatment on the sample in order to continue to give the treatment or stop the treatment because it is of no use. The local weighted least squares method was used to estimate the parameters of the fuzzy regression discontinuous model, and the local polynomial method was used to estimate the bandwidth. Data were generated with sample sizes (75,100,125,150 ) in repetition 1000. An experiment was conducted at the Innovation Institute for remedial lessons in 2021 for 72 students participating in the institute and data collection. Those who used the treatment had an increase in their score after
... Show MoreRadiation treatment has long been the conventional approach for treating nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) tumors due to its anatomic features, biological characteristics, and radiosensitivity. The most common treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma is radiotherapy. This study aimed to assess the better quality of radiotherapy treatment techniques using intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT). The VMAT and IMRT are comparative techniques. Forty patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and forwarded for radiotherapy were treated with both advanced techniques, IMRT and VMAT, using eclipse software from Varian. The x-ray energy was set at 6 MV. The total prescribed dose was 70 Gy. The results show that the
... Show MoreMany of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem
... Show MoreIn regression testing, Test case prioritization (TCP) is a technique to arrange all the available test cases. TCP techniques can improve fault detection performance which is measured by the average percentage of fault detection (APFD). History-based TCP is one of the TCP techniques that consider the history of past data to prioritize test cases. The issue of equal priority allocation to test cases is a common problem for most TCP techniques. However, this problem has not been explored in history-based TCP techniques. To solve this problem in regression testing, most of the researchers resort to random sorting of test cases. This study aims to investigate equal priority in history-based TCP techniques. The first objective is to implement
... Show MoreIraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w
... Show MoreResearchers have increased interest in recent years in determining the optimum sample size to obtain sufficient accuracy and estimation and to obtain high-precision parameters in order to evaluate a large number of tests in the field of diagnosis at the same time. In this research, two methods were used to determine the optimum sample size to estimate the parameters of high-dimensional data. These methods are the Bennett inequality method and the regression method. The nonlinear logistic regression model is estimated by the size of each sampling method in high-dimensional data using artificial intelligence, which is the method of artificial neural network (ANN) as it gives a high-precision estimate commensurate with the dat
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