The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
The aim of this research is to formulate a proposed strategy for developing graduate studies at King Khalid University to support the achievement of the Kingdom's vision (2030). The research used the descriptive survey approach. The research community consisted of all graduate students at King Khalid University. The research was conducted on a random sample included (623) Male and female students, this research relied on the questionnaire as the main tool for collecting its data. The results revealed that the research sample believes that all the proposals included in this research are very important for the development of postgraduate studies at King Khalid University to support the achievement of the K
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In view of the fact that high blood pressure is one of the serious human diseases that a person can get without having to feel them, which is caused by many reasons therefore it became necessary to do research in this subject and to express these many factors by specific causes through studying it using (factor analysis).
So the researcher got to the five factors that explains only 71% of the total variation in this phenomenon is the subject of the research, where ((overweight)) and ((alcohol in abundance)) and ((smoking)) and ((lack of exercise)) are the reasons that influential the most in the incidence of this disease.
This work investigates the impacts of eccentric-inclined load on ring footing performance resting on treated and untreated weak sandy soil, and due to the reduction in the footing carrying capacity due to the combinations of eccentrically-inclined load, the geogrid was used as reinforcement material. Ring radius ratio and reinforcement depth ratio parameters were investigated. Test outcomes showed that the carrying capacity of the footing decreases with the increment in the eccentric-inclined load and footing radius ratio. Furthermore, footing tilt and horizontal displacement increase with increasing the eccentricity and inclination angle, respectively. At the same time, the increment in the horizontal displacement due t
... Show MoreThis project sought to fabricate a flexible gas sensor based on a short functionalized multi-walled carbon nanotubes (f-MWCNTs) network for nitrogen dioxide gas detection. The network was prepared by filtration from the suspension (FFS) method and modified by coating with a layer of polypyrrole conductive polymer (PPy) prepared by the oxidative chemical polymerization to improve the properties of the network. The structural, optical, and morphological properties of the f-MWCNTs and f-MWCNTs/PPy network were studied using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourie-transform infrared (FTIR), with an AFM (atomic force microscopy). XRD proved that the structure of f-MWCNTs is unaffected by the synthesis procedure. The FTIR spectra verified the existence o
... Show MorePermanent deformation, fatigue and thermal cracking are the three typical distresses of flexible pavement. Using hydrated lime (HL) into the conventional limestone mineral additive has been widely practiced, including in Europe, to improve the mechanical properties of hot mix asphalt (HMA) concrete and as the result the durability of the constructed pavement. Large number of experimental studies have been reported to find the optimum addition of HL for the improvement on HMA concrete mechanical properties, moisture susceptibility and fatigue resistance. Pavement in service is under complex thermomechanical stress-strain conditions due to coupled atmospheric and surrounding environment temperature variation and the traffic loading. To predic
... Show MoreThis paper describes a new proposed structure of the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller based on modified Elman neural network for the DC-DC buck converter system which is used in battery operation of the portable devices. The Dolphin Echolocation Optimization (DEO) algorithm is considered as a perfect on-line tuning technique therefore, it was used for tuning and obtaining the parameters of the modified Elman neural-PID controller to avoid the local minimum problem during learning the proposed controller. Simulation results show that the best weight parameters of the proposed controller, which are taken from the DEO, lead to find the best action and unsaturated state that will stabilize the Buck converter system performan
... Show MoreCredit risk assessment has become an important topic in financial risk administration. Fuzzy clustering analysis has been applied in credit scoring. Gustafson-Kessel (GK) algorithm has been utilised to cluster creditworthy customers as against non-creditworthy ones. A good clustering analysis implemented by good Initial Centres of clusters should be selected. To overcome this problem of Gustafson-Kessel (GK) algorithm, we proposed a modified version of Kohonen Network (KN) algorithm to select the initial centres. Utilising similar degree between points to get similarity density, and then by means of maximum density points selecting; the modified Kohonen Network method generate clustering initial centres to get more reasonable clustering res
... Show MoreHydrated lime has been recognized as an effective additive used to improve asphalt concrete properties in pavement applications. However, further work is still needed to quantify the effect of hydrated lime on asphaltic concrete performance under varied weather, temperature, and environmental conditions and in the application of different pavement courses. A research project was conducted using hydrated lime to modify the asphalt concretes used for the applications of wearing (surface), leveling (binder), and base courses. A previous publication reported the experimental study on the resistance to Marshall stability and the volumetric properties, the resilient modulus, and permanent deformation at three different weather temperatures. This
... Show MoreAtmospheric residue fluid catalytic cracking was selected as a probe reaction to test the catalytic performance of modified NaY zeolites and prepared NaY zeolites. Modified NaY zeolites have been synthesized by simple ion exchange methods. Three samples of modified zeolite Y have been obtained by replacing the sodium ions in the original sample with lanthanum and the weight percent added are 0.28, 0.53, and 1.02 respectively. The effects of addition of lanthanum to zeolite Y in different weight percent on the cracking catalysts were investigated using an experimental laboratory plant scale of fluidized bed reactor.
The experiments have been performed with weight hourly space velocity (WHSV) range of 6 to 24 h
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