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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The mechanisms of the actor's work between performance and directing style in the contemporary theater show (Western) as a model
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The actor has mechanisms that were applied in the performance، as it formed a style in the theatrical form (weird)، and the researcher deliberately studied these mechanisms and divided them into four chapters.

The researcher divided it into two sections، the first is the actor's performance requirements، and the second is the boring performance methods in the directors' theater، and then the researcher concluded the second chapter with the most important indicators.

As for the third chapter، the researcher determined the society of his research and the method of selecting the sample (strange) and analyzing the sample and concluded with the most important results of the sample analysis.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Theoretical Model for Spectroscopic Study of Cu+2, Co+2, and Fe+3 Dissolved in Ethanol with A Different Concentrations
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The absorption spectrum for three types of metal ions in different concentrations has been studying experimentally and theoretically. The examination model is by Gaius model in order to find the best fitting curve and the equation controlled with this behavior. The three metal ions are (Copper chloride Cu+2, Iron chloride Fe+3, and Cobalt chloride Co+2) with different concentrations (10-4, 10-5, 10-6, 10-7) gm/m3. The spectroscopic study included UV-visible and fluorescence spectrum for all different concentrations sample. The results refer to several peaks that appear from the absorption spectrum in the high concentration of all metal ions solution.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Impact of Fear and Anti-Predator Behavior on the Dynamics of Stage-Structure Prey–Predator Model With a Harvesting
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In this paper, an ecological model with stage-structure in prey population, fear, anti-predator and harvesting are suggested. Lotka-Volterra and Holling type II functional responses have been assumed to describe the feeding processes . The local and global stability of steady points of this model are established. Finally, the global dynamics are studied numerically to investigate the influence of the parameters on the solutions of the system, especially the effect of fear and anti-predation.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Anthropology and Representations of Magic in Arab Theatrical Text Harut and Marut's Play as a Model: وصال خلفة كاظم البكري
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The research (Anthropology and Representations of magic in Arab Theatrical Text, Harut and Marut's play as a Model) is concerned with studying magic and the forms of its presence in the theatrical text in different human cultures where it belongs. The research consists of four chapters.
The first chapter includes the research problem that revolves around the following questions: (what is the mechanism of employing magic anthropology and its representations in the Arab theatrical text Harut and Marut's play as a model?), and the research importance which is attributed to the necessity of studying (magic) in the Arab theatrical text as it is considered the inauguration of one of the social phenomena that many researchers in the field o

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 19 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of physical characteristics of mass and luminosity function of disk systems in barred and unbarred spiral galaxies
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إحدى أهم الطرق لتقصي توزيع المجرات عبر الزمن الكوني هي دالة اللمعان LF بدلالة كتلة القرص الباريوني ψS(Mb)، القدر . لقد درسنا تقديرًا لكثافة كتلة الباريون في عينة من المجرات الحلزونية القضيبية وغير القضيبية من الادبيات السابقة، والتي تتضمن فعليًا، لكل صنف من الاجرام السماوية ذات المحتوى الباريون المرئي، جزءًا لا يتجزأ من ناتج دالة الضيائية (LF) ونسبة الكتلة إلى الضوء. استخدمت تقنية الانحدار المتعدد لحزمة الب

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Publication Date
Tue May 17 2016
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Nursing A Nd Health Science (iosr-jnhs)
Comparative Study of Abnormal Renal Function Tests and Liverfunction Tests in Type1 and Type2 Diabetes Mellitus in Iraq
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This study was planned to evaluate the renal function tests and liver function tests and it carried out in Al-Yarmouk hospital,Baghdad –Iraqin patients withtype 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus by measuring(uric acid,urea and creatinine) ,Aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and Alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Seventy five individuals of Iraqi adults (male) were divided into three groups, 25 patients with type1 diabetes mellitus ,25 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and 25 normal individuals were taken as control group. The mean value of uric acid, urea and creatinine was higher significantly in patients thanin control group (P< 0.05),while the correlation(p< 0.01) between age ,creatinine in type 1 and between age and (Urea, Uric acid ,cr

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 03 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Impairment of Salivary Gland Function in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Association with Change in Salivary Biomarkers and Disease Activity
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Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease characterized by joint inflammation, involvement of exocrine salivary and lacrimal glands may occur as extra-articular mani¬festations in this disease. This study aimed to provide evidence of altered in function and composition of salivary gland in patients with rheumatoid arthritis by determine salivary flow rate and some biochemical parameters(total protein, amylase, peroxidase) and to investigate the relationship between disease activity and changes in function and composition of salivary gland. Materials and Methods: Fifty five patients with RA (7 males and 48 females) were enrolled in this study with age range (20-69) years. The patients were separated int

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of College Of Education
An Investigative Study on the Electron Energy Distribution Function and Electron Transport Coefficients in SF6 -- Ne Gas Mixtures
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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Branch and Bound Algorithm with Penalty Function Method for solving Non-linear Bi-level programming with application
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The problem of Bi-level programming is to reduce or maximize the function of the target by having another target function within the constraints. This problem has received a great deal of attention in the programming community due to the proliferation of applications and the use of evolutionary algorithms in addressing this kind of problem. Two non-linear bi-level programming methods are used in this paper. The goal is to achieve the optimal solution through the simulation method using the Monte Carlo method using different small and large sample sizes. The research reached the Branch Bound algorithm was preferred in solving the problem of non-linear two-level programming this is because the results were better.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Effect of car painting vapours on pulmonary and liver function of Automobile painting worker within Baghdad governorate area
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Background: Automobile spray painting is considered an occupation with a high risk of respiratory impairment and asthma. Exposure to organic solvents used for spraying might be of high risk for development of dysfunction in other organs.
Objective: The study was designed to evaluate the pulmonary and hepatic toxicity due to exposure of automobile painters to organic solvents in work places within the Baghdad governorate area.
Methods: Thirty cross sectional selected male workers employed in automobile body paint shops in two industrial areas within Baghdad city (Al-Sheikh Omar and Al-Rasheed camp regions) were recruited to the study during the period from March to May 2012. Thirty non-exposed students and employees in the college o

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