The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
The aim of this research is to formulate a proposed strategy for developing graduate studies at King Khalid University to support the achievement of the Kingdom's vision (2030). The research used the descriptive survey approach. The research community consisted of all graduate students at King Khalid University. The research was conducted on a random sample included (623) Male and female students, this research relied on the questionnaire as the main tool for collecting its data. The results revealed that the research sample believes that all the proposals included in this research are very important for the development of postgraduate studies at King Khalid University to support the achievement of the K
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In view of the fact that high blood pressure is one of the serious human diseases that a person can get without having to feel them, which is caused by many reasons therefore it became necessary to do research in this subject and to express these many factors by specific causes through studying it using (factor analysis).
So the researcher got to the five factors that explains only 71% of the total variation in this phenomenon is the subject of the research, where ((overweight)) and ((alcohol in abundance)) and ((smoking)) and ((lack of exercise)) are the reasons that influential the most in the incidence of this disease.
This work investigates the impacts of eccentric-inclined load on ring footing performance resting on treated and untreated weak sandy soil, and due to the reduction in the footing carrying capacity due to the combinations of eccentrically-inclined load, the geogrid was used as reinforcement material. Ring radius ratio and reinforcement depth ratio parameters were investigated. Test outcomes showed that the carrying capacity of the footing decreases with the increment in the eccentric-inclined load and footing radius ratio. Furthermore, footing tilt and horizontal displacement increase with increasing the eccentricity and inclination angle, respectively. At the same time, the increment in the horizontal displacement due t
... Show MoreA geological model was built for the Sadi reservoir, located at the Halfaya oil field. It is regarded as one of the most significant oilfields in Iraq. The study includes several steps, the most essential of which was importing well logs from six oil wells to the Interactive Petrophysics software for conducting interpretation and analysis to calculate the petrophysical properties such as permeability, porosity, shale volume, water saturation, and NTG and then importing maps and the well tops to the Petrel software to build the 3D-Geological model and to calculate the value of the original oil in place. Three geological surfaces were produced for all Sadi units based on well-top data and the top Sadi structural map. The reservoir has
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify the anxiety pregnant women have of dying, in the light of some Demographic variables in Bethlehem (age, residence, and the mother's job). The descriptive method was used in this study. To achieve the study purposes, the researchers developed a questionnaire as a tool of study, which consisted of (19) paragraphs ,after been verified of its validity & stability.
The researchers distributed questionnaires, and then analyzed them. Results illustrated that the levels of anxiety pregnant women in Bethlehem had of dying was average, with a mean total score of (3.11), and with a standard deviation that had the total score of (0.476). Results also illustrated statistical differences in the pregn
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Abstract
Leadership has now become a process for applying methods and techniques that make the Organization at the top of its competitive pyramid a greater market share. Leadership has become a focus for all leaders and managers، and leaders and managers are increasingly seeking to develop their skills and leadership skills. The research started with a clear problem of specific questions to ensure that the general objective of the research is to describe the characteristics of the leader and to clarify the dimensions of empowering the workers and to highlight the role of the leader in empowering the workers. The study examines the relation between the role of the leader in
... Show MoreLibraries, information centers, and everything related to organizing and preparing information need to be periodically re-evaluated in order to stand on the level of quality, which means improving the general reality of these institutions to ensure sufficient satisfaction from beneficiaries of the services provided. This is what was worked on in this research, as one of the most important quality standards in libraries and information centers, LibQUAL+®, was applied in one of the most important and oldest central university libraries, namely the Central Library of the University of Baghdad at its two locations, Al-Jadriya and Al-Waziriya. The sample of beneficiaries to whom the questionnaire was distributed reached 75 beneficiaries distrib
... Show MoreUnconfined compressive strength (UCS) of rock is the most critical geomechanical property widely used as input parameters for designing fractures, analyzing wellbore stability, drilling programming and carrying out various petroleum engineering projects. The USC regulates rock deformation by measuring its strength and load-bearing capacity. The determination of UCS in the laboratory is a time-consuming and costly process. The current study aims to develop empirical equations to predict UCS using regression analysis by JMP software for the Khasib Formation in the Buzurgan oil fields, in southeastern Iraq using well-log data. The proposed equation accuracy was tested using the coefficient of determination (R²), the average absolute
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