The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The study presents the modification of the Broyden-Flecher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) update (H-Version) based on the determinant property of inverse of Hessian matrix (second derivative of the objective function), via updating of the vector s ( the difference between the next solution and the current solution), such that the determinant of the next inverse of Hessian matrix is equal to the determinant of the current inverse of Hessian matrix at every iteration. Moreover, the sequence of inverse of Hessian matrix generated by the method would never approach a near-singular matrix, such that the program would never break before the minimum value of the objective function is obtained. Moreover, the new modification of BFGS update (H-vers
... Show MoreThe efforts embedded in this paper have been devoted to designing, preparing, and testing warm mix asphalt (WMA) mixtures and comparing their behavior against traditional hot mix asphalt mixtures. For WMA preparation, the Sasobit wax additive has been added to a 40/50 asphalt binder with a concentration of 3%. An experimental evaluation has been performed by conducting the Marshall together with volumetric properties, indirect tensile strength, and wheel tracking tests to acquire the tensile strength ratio (TSR), retained stability index (RSI), and rut depth. It was found that the gained benefit of reduction in mixing and compaction temperatures was reversely associated with a noticeable decline in Marshall properties and moisture s
... Show MoreIraqi agriculture faces a major water problem, affecting cultivated areas, agricultural production, farmers’ incomes and food security. However, the results achieved in rationalizing the use of irrigation water are still limited and do not match what they should be in order to meet this serious challenge. The study aimed to provide a vision for the development of the effectiveness of the dissemination of innovations to rationalize the use of irrigation water in Iraqi agriculture. In light of the framework of the dissemination of agricultural innovations, factors related to their effectiveness, and the summary of the Iraqi experience in the field of dissemination of modern irrigation
Semi-parametric regression models have been studied in a variety of applications and scientific fields due to their high flexibility in dealing with data that has problems, as they are characterized by the ease of interpretation of the parameter part while retaining the flexibility of the non-parametric part. The response variable or explanatory variables can have outliers, and the OLS approach have the sensitivity to outliers. To address this issue, robust (resistance) methods were used, which are less sensitive in the presence of outlier values in the data. This study aims to estimate the partial regression model using the robust estimation method with the wavel
... Show Moreالجمود المؤسسي واثره في فشل التنمية السياسية : محاولة من اجل بناء مفهوم
E-Learning packages are content and instructional methods delivered on a computer
(whether on the Internet, or an intranet), and designed to build knowledge and skills related to
individual or organizational goals. This definition addresses: The what: Training delivered
in digital form. The how: By content and instructional methods, to help learn the content.
The why: Improve organizational performance by building job-relevant knowledge and
skills in workers.
This paper has been designed and implemented a learning package for Prolog Programming
Language. This is done by using Visual Basic.Net programming language 2010 in
conjunction with the Microsoft Office Access 2007. Also this package introduces several
fac