The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.
Mixture experiments are response variables based on the proportions of component for this mixture. In our research we will compare the scheffʼe model with the kronecker model for the mixture experiments, especially when the experimental area is restricted.
Because of the experience of the mixture of high correlation problem and the problem of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, which has an effect on the calculation of the Fisher information matrix of the regression model.
to estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used the (generalized inverse ) And the Stepwise Regression procedure
... Show MoreAbstract---The aim of the current research is to identify the level of logical reasoning skills in chemistry students at the Faculty of Education for Pure Sciences/ Ibn Al-Haytham for the academic year (2021-2022). The differences in their level of skills according to the gender variable (males and females) and the academic stages (first- second - third - fourth). The descriptive approach was adopted because it corresponds to the nature of the research objectives. The research sample consisted of (400 )students selected in a relatively random stratified way. The researcher constructed a logical reasoning test, which includes (6) sub-skills , which is (proportional - probabilistic- synthetic- deductive- logic- variable adjustment). The psych
... Show MoreAmong all the common mechanical transmission elements, gears still playing the most dominant role especially in the heavy duty works offering extraordinary performance under extreme conditions and that the cause behind the extensive researches concentrating on the enhancement of its durability to do its job as well as possible. Contact stress distribution within the teeth domain is considered as one of the most effective parameters characterizing gear life, performance, efficiency, and application so that it has been well sought for formal gear profiles and paid a lot of attention for moderate tooth shapes. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of pressure angle, speed ratio, and correction factor on the maxi
... Show MoreThe new novel polymers nanocomposites based modified chitosan (CS) blending with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and coated gold or silver nanoparticles (AuNPs), AgNPs) were synthesized from many sequence reactions as presented in (Scheme1, 2 and 3). By utilizing 1H-NMR spectroscopy, FTIR, and Field Emission Scanning electron microscope , the synthesized compounds have been identified. Molecular docking is studied, where operations are used to predict the binding status of compounds with the enzyme and to calculate the free energy (ΔG) of the compounds prepared. Also, the antibacterial activity regarding the synthesized compounds against two resistant pathogenic bacteria (G+) S. aureus and E. coli (G-) was examined in vitro compare with standard a
... Show MoreThe effect of air injection device on the performance of airlift pump used for water pumping has been studied numerically and experimentally. An airlift pump of dimensions 42mm diameter and 2200 mm length with conventional and modified air injection device was considered. A modification on conventional injection device (normal air-jacket type) was carried out by changing injection angle from 90 (for conventional) to 22.5 (for modified). Continuity and Navier-Stokes equations in turbulent regime with an appropriate two-phase flow model (VOF) and turbulent model ( ) in two dimensions axisymmetry flow were formulated and solved by using the known package FLUENT version (14.5). The numerical and experimental investiga
... Show MoreEpoxy (EP) – Silica (SiO2) composites are well known composites used in microelectronic industry . So it is important to study their dielectric behavior under different conditions such as
the presence carbon black (UV absorber) and immersion in the water for 30 days .
Dielectric properties were calculated over the frequency range 102 – 106 Hz for epoxy composites with different weight % of micrometer 1.5μm SiO2 particles (60%, 65% and 70wt%) modified with 0.5wt% silane coupling agent to improve adhesion between EP and SiO2 phases .
This study investigates the characterization and mechanical performance of Stone Mastic Asphalt (SMA) mixtures modified with two types of polymers: styrene–butadiene–styrene (SBS) and high-molecular-weight polyethylene (PE). Neat asphalt cement PG 64-16 was modified using a higher content of SBS and PE at concentrations of 6%, 7%, and 8% by weight of asphalt through the dry blending method to produce Highly Modified Asphalts (HiMA). The physical and rheological properties of the modified binders were evaluated using penetration, softening point, rotational viscosity, and dynamic shear rheometer (DSR) tests. Also, their phase compatibility and morphological changes were evaluated using the storage stability testing and scanning electron
... Show MoreAdvancing the multi-scale performance of asphalt pavements requires innovative binder modifications that address limitations in rutting resistance, fatigue resistance, and durability across the binder, mixture, and structural levels. This study evaluates the performance of asphalt cement, mixtures, and pavement systems modified with a combination of polyethylene (PE) and carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The binder was modified using 4% PE and varying CNT contents (0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, and 2% by weight of the modified binder). Binder performance was assessed through conventional and rheological tests, including penetration, softening point, viscosity, performance grade (PG) evaluation, and master curve analysis. Mixture-level performance was eval
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