The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
This research aims to design a multi-objective mathematical model to assess the project quality based on three criteria: time, cost and performance. This model has been applied in one of the major projects formations of the Saad Public Company which enables to completion the project on time at an additional cost that would be within the estimated budget with a satisfactory level of the performance which match with consumer requirements. The problem of research is to ensure that the project is completed with the required quality Is subject to constraints, such as time, cost and performance, so this requires prioritizing multiple goals. The project
... Show MoreThis study aimed to identify the employment of the social networking platform «Twitter» in the 2016 presidential campaign led by the Republican candidate, Donald Trump; and analyse his tweets through his personal account on «Twitter» for the period from: 10/ 8/2016 to: 11/ 8/2016 which represents the last month of the election campaign.
The study belongs to the type of descriptive studies using the analytical method through an analysis index that includes sub-categories and other secondary categories. The research has adopted the ordinary unit of information material (tweet) as an analysis unit for this purpose.
... Show MoreFurosemide drug determination in pharmaceutical and biological urine samples using a novel continuous flow-injection analysis technique that is simple, rapid, sensitive and economical. The complex formed by the reaction of furosemide and O-phenylenediamine with oxidative agent K3[Fe(CN)6] to produce an orange-yellow colored product at 460 nm was the basis for the proposed method. The proposed method’s linearity ranges (3-100) μg.mL-1and (1-50) μg.mL-1 for CFIA/merging zone methods and batch .The detection limit and Limit of quantification values were 2.7502 μg.mL-1 and 9.1697 μg.mL-1 the relative standard deviation was 0.7143 %, and the average recovery is 98.80%
... Show MoreEpoxy (EP) – Silica (SiO2) composites are well known composites used in microelectronic industry . So it is important to study their dielectric behavior under different conditions such as
the presence carbon black (UV absorber) and immersion in the water for 30 days .
Dielectric properties were calculated over the frequency range 102 – 106 Hz for epoxy composites with different weight % of micrometer 1.5μm SiO2 particles (60%, 65% and 70wt%) modified with 0.5wt% silane coupling agent to improve adhesion between EP and SiO2 phases .
The effect of air injection device on the performance of airlift pump used for water pumping has been studied numerically and experimentally. An airlift pump of dimensions 42mm diameter and 2200 mm length with conventional and modified air injection device was considered. A modification on conventional injection device (normal air-jacket type) was carried out by changing injection angle from 90 (for conventional) to 22.5 (for modified). Continuity and Navier-Stokes equations in turbulent regime with an appropriate two-phase flow model (VOF) and turbulent model ( ) in two dimensions axisymmetry flow were formulated and solved by using the known package FLUENT version (14.5). The numerical and experimental investiga
... Show MoreAmong all the common mechanical transmission elements, gears still playing the most dominant role especially in the heavy duty works offering extraordinary performance under extreme conditions and that the cause behind the extensive researches concentrating on the enhancement of its durability to do its job as well as possible. Contact stress distribution within the teeth domain is considered as one of the most effective parameters characterizing gear life, performance, efficiency, and application so that it has been well sought for formal gear profiles and paid a lot of attention for moderate tooth shapes. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of pressure angle, speed ratio, and correction factor on the maxi
... Show MoreThe new novel polymers nanocomposites based modified chitosan (CS) blending with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and coated gold or silver nanoparticles (AuNPs), AgNPs) were synthesized from many sequence reactions as presented in (Scheme1, 2 and 3). By utilizing 1H-NMR spectroscopy, FTIR, and Field Emission Scanning electron microscope , the synthesized compounds have been identified. Molecular docking is studied, where operations are used to predict the binding status of compounds with the enzyme and to calculate the free energy (ΔG) of the compounds prepared. Also, the antibacterial activity regarding the synthesized compounds against two resistant pathogenic bacteria (G+) S. aureus and E. coli (G-) was examined in vitro compare with standard a
... Show MoreThe presence of White Blood Cells (WBCs) in the body of human has a great role in the protection of the body against many pathogens. The recognition of the WBC is the first important step to diagnose some particular diseases. The pathologists usually use an optical microscope to recognize WBCs, but, this process is a quite tedious, time-consuming, error prone, very slow, and expensive. In addition, it needs experts with long practice in this field. For these reasons, a computer assisted diagnostic system that helps pathologists in the process of diagnosis can be effective, easy and safe. This research is devoted to develop a system based on digital image processing methods to localize WBCs nuclei. The proposed system involved a collectio
... Show MoreThis paper proposed a new method to study functional non-parametric regression data analysis with conditional expectation in the case that the covariates are functional and the Principal Component Analysis was utilized to de-correlate the multivariate response variables. It utilized the formula of the Nadaraya Watson estimator (K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN)) for prediction with different types of the semi-metrics, (which are based on Second Derivative and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA)) for measureing the closeness between curves. Root Mean Square Errors is used for the implementation of this model which is then compared to the independent response method. R program is used for analysing data. Then, when the cov
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