The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The current research aims to identify the impact of the (Landa) model on acquiring grammatical concepts among students of the College of Administration and Economics, University of Baghdad, and to achieve the research goal, the researcher has set the following hypotheses: There are no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05) between the average degrees Students of the experimental group who studied the Arabic language according to the (Landa) model and the marks of the students of the control group who studied the same subject in the usual way in the post test, there are no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05) in the average differences between the test scores before and
... Show MoreMixture experiments are response variables based on the proportions of component for this mixture. In our research we will compare the scheffʼe model with the kronecker model for the mixture experiments, especially when the experimental area is restricted.
Because of the experience of the mixture of high correlation problem and the problem of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, which has an effect on the calculation of the Fisher information matrix of the regression model.
to estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used the (generalized inverse ) And the Stepwise Regression procedure
... Show MoreThe research aimed to identify "the effectiveness of educational-learning design according to the model of brain compatibility in achievement among firstmiddle grade students in mathematics", in schools affiliated with the Second Karkh Directorate of Education. To achieve the goal of research, the following zero hypothesis has been formulated: " There is no statistically significant difference at the semantic level (05.0) between the average scores of experimental group students who will study with design accreditation (educational - learning) according to the brain compatibility model and the grades of control group students who will study in the usual way in the achievement thinking test". The research community, which is represented by
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the cognitive method (rigidity flexibility) of third-stage students in the collage of Physical Education and Sports Sciences at The University of Baghdad, as well as to recognize the impact of using the McCarthy model in learning some of skills in gymnastics, as well as to identify the best groups in learning skills, the experimental curriculum was used to design equal groups with pre test and post test and the research community was identified by third-stage students in academic year (2020-2021), the subject was randomly selected two divisions after which the measure of cognitive method was distributed to the sample, so the subject (32) students were distributed in four groups, and which the pre te
... Show MoreAbstract---The aim of the current research is to identify the level of logical reasoning skills in chemistry students at the Faculty of Education for Pure Sciences/ Ibn Al-Haytham for the academic year (2021-2022). The differences in their level of skills according to the gender variable (males and females) and the academic stages (first- second - third - fourth). The descriptive approach was adopted because it corresponds to the nature of the research objectives. The research sample consisted of (400 )students selected in a relatively random stratified way. The researcher constructed a logical reasoning test, which includes (6) sub-skills , which is (proportional - probabilistic- synthetic- deductive- logic- variable adjustment). The psych
... Show MoreChemical pollution is a very important issue that people suffer from and it often affects the nature of health of society and the future of the health of future generations. Consequently, it must be considered in order to discover suitable models and find descriptions to predict the performance of it in the forthcoming years. Chemical pollution data in Iraq take a great scope and manifold sources and kinds, which brands it as Big Data that need to be studied using novel statistical methods. The research object on using Proposed Nonparametric Procedure NP Method to develop an (OCMT) test procedure to estimate parameters of linear regression model with large size of data (Big Data) which comprises many indicators associated with chemi
... Show MoreThis study aimed to identify the employment of the social networking platform «Twitter» in the 2016 presidential campaign led by the Republican candidate, Donald Trump; and analyse his tweets through his personal account on «Twitter» for the period from: 10/ 8/2016 to: 11/ 8/2016 which represents the last month of the election campaign.
The study belongs to the type of descriptive studies using the analytical method through an analysis index that includes sub-categories and other secondary categories. The research has adopted the ordinary unit of information material (tweet) as an analysis unit for this purpose.
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to identify the rate of return of the stock through the financial information disclosed by the financial statements of companies both services and insurance included in Iraqi market for securities . The study used a descriptive statistical methods and the correlation matrix for the independent factors , in addition to a regression model for data analysis and hypothesis . Model included a number of independent variables , which was measured in the size of company (sales or revenue) , and the leverage , in addition to the structure of assets and the book value of owners' equity in the company , as well as the general price index .Based on the data of (11)companies and for three years, showed the result
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to assess the validity of Detailed Micro-Modeling (DMM) as a numerical model for masonry analysis. To achieve this aim, a set of load-displacement curves obtained based on both numerical simulation and experimental results of clay masonry prisms loaded by a vertical load. The finite element method was implemented in DMM for analysis of the experimental clay masonry prism. The finite element software ABAQUS with implicit solver was used to model and analyze the clay masonry prism subjected to a vertical load. The load-displacement relationship of numerical model was found in good agreement with those drawn from experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curvefound from the finite element m
... Show MoreTo obtain the approximate solution to Riccati matrix differential equations, a new variational iteration approach was proposed, which is suggested to improve the accuracy and increase the convergence rate of the approximate solutons to the exact solution. This technique was found to give very accurate results in a few number of iterations. In this paper, the modified approaches were derived to give modified solutions of proposed and used and the convergence analysis to the exact solution of the derived sequence of approximate solutions is also stated and proved. Two examples were also solved, which shows the reliability and applicability of the proposed approach.