The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this paper a prey-predator-scavenger food web model is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the model considered the effect of harvesting and all the species are infected by some toxicants released by some other species. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is discussed. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The occurrence of local bifurcation around the equilibrium points is investigated. Numerical simulation is used and the obtained solution curves are drawn to illustrate the results of the model. Finally, the nonexistence of periodic dynamics is discussed analytically as well as numerically.
This work suggests a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) containing a three-species food chain model incorporating wind and fear effects. The properties of the solution, like positivity and bound-ness, were investigated. All equilibrium points (biologically feasible) have been obtained, and the local stability of these equilibriums has been carried out. The global stability outcomes on the equilibrium points under specific restrictions have been established. Also, the persistence restrictions have been investigated. By utilizing Sotomayor’s theorem, the local bifurcation of the suggested model has been inspected. Furthermore, numerical analysis was carried out to ensure the theoretical results obtained by utilizing MA
... Show MoreThe mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation
... Show MoreGiven the importance of basic education (primary) being longer pillar in the construction of the individual's personality, as well as the importance of language and its role in the learning of students and development of cognitive, emotional and self-dynamic; therefore current research focuses on the study of building a standard oral expression can researchers and teachers alike measurement of oral expression among students, researcher has used to achieve this goal descriptive approach, it included standard on (10) paragraphs evenly distributed on the (5) key areas, and given (4) progressive alternatives according to the quality of the performance of the student and reached the highest score (30) and the lowest score (0).
... Show MoreThe research aims to build a communication apprehention scale for student (females) from preparatory schools .research sample included (400)students (females) were selected from the preparatory . to build a tool for the researchers are several steps , todetermine the meaning of communication apprehention and formulation of the items of the seale according to the linkert method .
This research aims toknow the learning styles according to the model of Felder and Silverman and its relationship to effectively self- perceived mathematicalamong students of the Faculty of Education Pure Sciences - Ibn al-Haytham. By answering the following questions: 1. What are the preferred methods of learning among students in the mathematics department according to the model Felder and Silverman? 2. What is the mathematicalself-perceived levelof the students at the Department of Mathematics effectiveness level? 3. What is the relationship between learning styles according to the Felder model and Silverman and the effectiveness of mathematical self-perceived of the students of the Department of Mathematics? The research sample consiste
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