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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Using Markov Switching Model to Investigate the Link between the Inflation and Uncertain Inflation in Iraq for the periods 1980-2010"
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In this paper we use the Markov Switching model to investigate the link between the level of Iraqi inflation and its uncertainty; forth period 1980-2010 we measure inflation uncertainty as the variance of unanticipated  inflation. The results ensure there are a negative effect of inflation level on inflation uncertainty and  all so there are a positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation level.                                                   &nbsp

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the Active Learning Model and Its Effect on Students' Achievement in Chemistry for Fifth Intermediate Stage
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The objective of the research is to identify the effect of an instructional design according to the active learning modelsالباحثين in the achievement of the students of the fifth grade, the instructional design was constructed according to the active learning models for the design of education. The research experience was applied for a full academic year (the first & the second term of 2017-2018). The sample consisted of 58 students, 28 students for the experimental group and 30 students for the control group. The experimental design was adopted with partial and post-test, the final achievement test consisted of (50) objectives and essays items on two terms, the validity of the test was verified by the adoption of the Kudoric

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Teaching Arabic to Non-Native Speakers between Communication and Pragmatics:Qualitative Approach in Light of the Common European Framework of Reference for Teaching Foreign Languages: هداية تاج الأصفياء حسن البصري
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This research is qualitative in nature. It aims to investigate descriptively, analytically, and comparatively the modern AK model represented by the Sudan Open University Series, and the European framework, the common reference for Teaching Foreign Languages, to uncover what was achieved in them in terms of communication and language use. Accordingly, an integrated, multi-media approach has been adopted to enable the production and reception activities, and the spread of Arabic in vast areas of the world. Such a spread helps Arabic language to be in a hegemonic position with the other living languages. The study is based on getting benefit from human experiences and joint work in the field of teaching Arabic to non-Arabic speakers to mee

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 20 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Learning Styles according to the Model of Felder & Silverman and its Relationship with Mathematical Self-perceived Efficacy to Students of the College of Education for Pure Sciences-Ibn Al-Haitham
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This research aims toknow the learning styles according to the model of Felder and Silverman and its relationship to effectively self- perceived mathematicalamong students of the Faculty of Education Pure Sciences - Ibn al-Haytham. By answering the following questions: 1. What are the preferred methods of learning among students in the mathematics department according to the model Felder and Silverman? 2. What is the mathematicalself-perceived levelof the students at the Department of Mathematics effectiveness level? 3. What is the relationship between learning styles according to the Felder model and Silverman and the effectiveness of mathematical self-perceived of the students of the Department of Mathematics? The research sample consiste

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Systematic Reviews In Pharmacy
Methotrexate effect on obestatin, progranulin and kidney function in RA Iraqi males patients
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Methotrxate (MTX) has become the standard of care and first-line therapy for patients who have RA and consider as a gold standard of treatment for RA. The role of MTX in the treatment of RA has now been well established. The use of MTX treatment of RA inhibits proliferation of the lymphocytes, reduces signs and symptoms this disease, reduces progression damage of the joints and improves quality of life outcome. Progranulin (PGRN) acts a role in autoimmune inflammatory, has important function in several processes including immune response. Present study has conducted to find the effect of MTX drugs as a therapeutic target for RA patients because of its ability to bind with tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR), with progranulin, obestatin an

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Scopus
Publication Date
Tue May 11 2021
Journal Name
Research J. Pharm. And Tech
Association of Serum Renal Function Levels with Heart Failure Disease in Iraqi Patients
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Renal function tests are commonly used in clinical practice to look for renal disease, the most common includes the serum urea, uric acid and creatinine. Heart failure patients have a higher incidence of renal function test abnormalities than individuals who do not have heart failure disease. Fifty subjects of adults (male) were divided in to two groups, 25 subjects (healthy) as control (group1) and 25 subjects with heart failure (group 2). Our results indicate that serum uric acid, urea, and creatinine values were significantly elevated (P≤0.05) in patients group (2) compared with healthy group (1). The results also showed, the effect of age categories on uric acid blood urea nitrogen and creatinine values (P≤0.05) and there were no si

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Publication Date
Sun May 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Bayesian Estimation for Two Parameters of Gamma Distribution under Generalized Weighted Loss Function
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This paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Thermodynamic function of valineacid in n-n dimethyl formamide mixtures from conductance measurement
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Some physical properties enthalpy (?H), entropy (?s), free energy (?G),capacities(?cp?) and Pka values) for valine in dimethyl foramideover the temperature range 293.15-318.15K, were determined by direct conductance measurements. The acid dissociation at six temperature was examined at solvent composition x2) involving 0.141 of dimethyl foramide . As results, calculated values have been used to determine the dissociation constant and the associated thermodynamic function for the valine in the solvent mixture over temperatures in the range 293.15-318.15 k. The Pka1, and Pka2 were increased with increasing temperature.

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 18 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Comparison Between Standard Bayes Estimators of the Reliability Function of Exponential Distribution
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   In this paper, a Monte Carlo Simulation technique is used to compare the performance of the standard Bayes estimators of the reliability function of the one parameter exponential distribution .Three types of loss functions are adopted, namely, squared error  loss function (SELF) ,Precautionary error loss function (PELF) andlinear exponential error  loss function(LINEX) with informative and non- informative prior .The criterion integrated mean square error (IMSE) is employed to assess the performance of such estimators

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study the Effect of Hyperthyroidism on Heart Function by Using BNP as Indicator
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The aim was made to specify the effect of hyperthyroidism on B-type natriuretic
peptide (BNP) level. Twenty patients with hyperthyroidism, 20 patients with
hyperthyroidism treated with (35) mg Carbimazole, 12 patients with
hyperthyroidism associated with heart failure and 20 healthy participants were
included in this study. Serum Triiodothyronine (T3), Thyroxin (T4) and Thyroid
stimulating hormone (TSH) have been used for hyperthyroidism diagnosis test, also
serum BNP level was measured. The results showed that the mean ± SE of serum
BNP was significantly (P<0.05) increased in hyperthyroid group (420.76 ± 83.43)
pg/mL and hyperthyroid with heart failure group (728.58±149.06) pg/mL when
compared with the c

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