The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This study investigates the characterization and mechanical performance of Stone Mastic Asphalt (SMA) mixtures modified with two types of polymers: styrene–butadiene–styrene (SBS) and high-molecular-weight polyethylene (PE). Neat asphalt cement PG 64-16 was modified using a higher content of SBS and PE at concentrations of 6%, 7%, and 8% by weight of asphalt through the dry blending method to produce Highly Modified Asphalts (HiMA). The physical and rheological properties of the modified binders were evaluated using penetration, softening point, rotational viscosity, and dynamic shear rheometer (DSR) tests. Also, their phase compatibility and morphological changes were evaluated using the storage stability testing and scanning electron
... Show MoreSolid waste generation and composition in Baghdad is typically affected by population growth, urbanization, improved economic conditions, changes in lifestyles and social and cultural habits.
A burning chamber was installed to burn cellulosic waste only. It was found that combustion reduced the original volume and weight of cellulosic waste by 97.4% and 85% respectively.
A batch composting study was performed to evaluate the feasibility of co-composting organic food waste with the cellulosic bottom ash in three different weight ratios (w/w) [95/5, 75/25, 50/50].
The composters were kept in controlled aerobic conditions for 7 days. Temperature, moisture, and pH were measured hourly as process succe
... Show MoreIt sheds light on the cultural dimension in the decentralized administration experience in Iraq as evaluation tool by adding a new dimension in studying decentralization in addition to the administrative, political and legal dimensions .The proposal of study is that without the civil political culture ,the administrative decentralization in Iraq which remains weak and it may be imposed to a set of problems. - The study includes an introduction, conclusion and a set of political and cultural issues , its components and it may have the political analysis of this culture and its role in determining the movement of the administrative decentralized movement in Iraq post 2003.
The Hopfield network is one of the easiest types, and its architecture is such that each neuron in the network connects to the other, thus called a fully connected neural network. In addition, this type is considered auto-associative memory, because the network returns the pattern immediately upon recognition, this network has many limitations, including memory capacity, discrepancy, orthogonally between patterns, weight symmetry, and local minimum. This paper proposes a new strategy for designing Hopfield based on XOR operation; A new strategy is proposed to solve these limitations by suggesting a new algorithm in the Hopfield network design, this strategy will increase the performance of Hopfield by modifying the architecture of t
... Show MoreThis paper presents a fully computerized method to backup the router configuration file. The method consists of a friendly graphical interface programmed by Java programming language.
The proposed method is compared with the two existing methods, namely: TFTP server method and Copy/Paste method. The comparison reveals that the proposed method has many advantages over the existing ones. The proposed method has been implemented on Cisco routers (series 2500, 2600 and 2800).
In this paper, a new hybrid algorithm for linear programming model based on Aggregate production planning problems is proposed. The new hybrid algorithm of a simulated annealing (SA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms. PSO algorithm employed for a good balance between exploration and exploitation in SA in order to be effective and efficient (speed and quality) for solving linear programming model. Finding results show that the proposed approach is achieving within a reasonable computational time comparing with PSO and SA algorithms.
Abstract
This research aims to design a multi-objective mathematical model to assess the project quality based on three criteria: time, cost and performance. This model has been applied in one of the major projects formations of the Saad Public Company which enables to completion the project on time at an additional cost that would be within the estimated budget with a satisfactory level of the performance which match with consumer requirements. The problem of research is to ensure that the project is completed with the required quality Is subject to constraints, such as time, cost and performance, so this requires prioritizing multiple goals. The project
... Show MoreIn this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.